Week Recap: Global Oil Shifts, U.S. Production Outlook & Election Insights

Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories

Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and Twitter

Follow Michael On LinkedIn and Twitter

ENB Top News

Energy Dashboard

ENB Podcast

ENB Substack

ENB Trading Desk

Oil & Gas Investing In 2024

– Get in Contact With The Show –

Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Stuart Turley: [00:00:10] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy News Beat podcast. This is the Daily Standard Weekend Edition. The staff is going to go through and pick our highest ranked stories for the week and then put them all together in this big summary. And I’ll tell you what, it has been an absolute crazy week we’d like to give again congratulations to President Trump and Vice President Vance. What a week. And we’d like to, like, let the folks know in Nevada and Arizona get the corruption out of your state. There’s absolutely zero reason you’re still finding balance at the end of this. Anyway, hope you’re having a fantastic day. And let’s get the corruption out of elections. Have a great day. We’ll talk to you soon. [00:00:55][44.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:56] Hey, let’s go to Joe Biden. And Kamala, is Iran oil sanctions failure? You can’t buy this kind of failure. Iran’s oil sector remains vital in funding its campaign against Israel and the Western powers as a linchpin in Tehran’s relay eration relationship with Beijing. They have successfully driven Iran into working very closely with Putin and China. So you want to talk about a stupidity? President Biden has not officially repealed any oil sanctions against Iran, but then again, Iran has not officially exported any oil. China. Hogwash. They’re the largest. But anyway, they’re not they’re not enforcing it. And it’s a failed, complete process. I thought it was a great article by Dr. Ariel Cohen. [00:01:45][49.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:46] Well, yeah. I mean, it’s clear since I mean, she’s points out in this article, since 2020, Iran’s oil revenue from exports has quadrupled from 16 billion to 50 3,000,000,000 in 2020. And that’s according to the EIA, which they’ve got every incentive to make it look as slim as possible. You know, obviously. And, you know, she points out three reasons, the lax enforcement of these sanctions. Obviously, there’s a rise in global oil prices, which is going to raise revenue. So it’s not quite just an apples to apples comparison. China has also come in and decided they want to import and basically have oil on tap and have really strengthened that relationship with Iran, which is absolutely scary. And that’s really what we’re seeing now, that Iran being flush with cash. You see what’s happening right now in the Middle East and totally. [00:02:28][42.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:29] Devastated the Middle East. All right. Hey, let’s go to LyondellBasell the shutting down Houston refinery, the industry’s as announced that it plans to close its Houston refinery, making the end of nearly 100 years of operations for the Gulf Coast facility. This is from Nathan Hammer, Substack. I’m going to give him a shout out. He’s been just starting to write some really good articles. Capacity is 264,000 barrels per day gasoline, diesel and other petroleum. But Michael, they said they’re looking to repurpose this after the first of the year to something was more green potential. I’m over here and I sent Nathan a note. What do you mean there’s nothing. This is they’re just going to let it sit there. I think the regulations got to him. [00:03:16][46.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:16] Yeah, well, I mean, with with Chevron obviously getting out of California and now moving towards move to Texas, we saw Mike Wirth announce that 66. [00:03:25][8.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:26] Is closing theirs in California. [00:03:27][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:28] You’re going you know, eventually oil slick Newsom over there is going to realize that he’s really slipped poured in dirty B probably what it is here a little bit too much little bit slipped on the phone, a little bit leaked on the floor, and then he slipped and tripped. And now all of a sudden, when he wakes up and comes out of his coma, you realize, wait, there’s no energy in this state and he’s going to be buying it from overseas, buying it from places that aren’t necessarily the United States, where, again, we have the cleanest energy in the world gets produced in the United States. So I think it’s unbelievable what’s going on in California. Obviously, with this Houston refinery closing, it’s it’s probably a big bit more. The Houston refinery, I think has a little bit more to do with just the overall economics of the refinery, not necessarily the underlying, you know, an underlying shift away. Obviously, Houston refiners aren’t going anywhere. So it’s a little bit of it’s a little bit of a it’s it’s was a phased it’s you know, this has been in the works for a while didn’t just all of a sudden just pop up. But it does show you that investment is still needed in the downstream sector and we’re spending all the money on offshore wind farms. [00:04:32][63.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:32] If the regulatory system allow them to upgrade this through the years and made the tax incentives for them, this thing would be moving right along. So I’m going to I’m going to hold on to it. [00:04:43][11.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:44] Let’s go to Energy Talen, Constellation and Vistra Tumbled after Government Rejects Amazon Nuclear Data Center Agreement. This is pretty amazing. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on Friday rejected a request to increase the amount of the power at the Shaquana, a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania in a hit on the Amazon Data Center campus. Independent. Producer Town Energy Emart sold the data center to Amazon for $650 million. Talon stock fell more than 5%. The grid operator PJM Interconnection and the Sequoia Plant Kwinana Plant, which Talen owns, filed a request to increase the amount dispatched on Amazon Data Center from 300MW to currently to 480MW. The arrangement co-location by a power industry could have huge ramifications of both grid reliability and consumers cost, said the F. E r c. Commissioner Mark Kristina’s opinion backing the order. I don’t trust anything that they do over there in the Energy Department in the f e r c based on the decisions that they’ve made and the lack of ability of having industry experts, I’m questioning why. I’ll see if I can do some digging around and find out and get back to you on this as well. [00:06:11][87.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:11] Storm Rafael may menace oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. Weather watch. We’re seeing an increase in the oil and gas prices right now simply because of OPEC plus’s decision to cut production for a bit. And at the time of this recording, oil prices were up at $2.16. Today at 7165 and Brant was it’s 7525. And so this storm could mean a little bit more depending on how wide. Over the next few days, the system is expected to dump heavy rain across Jamaica, Cuba, before drenching parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast. If it heads over to the Florida side, it won’t have nearly the impact if it’s going up through more of the Louisiana side. It’ll be the 17th storm of the six month Atlantic season, which has seen five hurricane strikes in the U.S. already. That’s nuts. Anyway, I hate for everyone watching our election coverage tomorrow. I don’t trust the mainstream media, nor do I trust the government. If you can imagine that, I would actually recommend going to decision USA online.com. Again that’s decision USA online.com. You’ve got Larry Schweiker there he is a very well known author. You’re going to have General Flynn and you’re going to have lots of other folks. I thoroughly enjoy getting to interview and visit with Larry on David’s podcast, David Blackman’s podcast. And we had an absolute blast talking politics. He has predicted that the election will turn out that Trump will win at the 312 mark for the Electoral College. I’m sure hoping he’s right. Larry is a sharp cat and get over there and follow decision USA online.com. And that way you don’t have to watch the mainstream media. [00:08:17][125.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:18] Let’s go to our buddies over there in Russia. Russia’s oil revenues plunged 29% in October as crude oil prices fell. Listen to these numbers. Bloomberg’s calculations, a Russian budget received last month 10.8 billion or 1.5 trillion rubles from oil, which is down from 29%. Total budget proceeds from oil and natural gas combined also declined about 25% to $12.4 billion. That’s a significant chunk to Russia. Here’s a. [00:08:57][39.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:57] Significant chunk. Even the fact that it plunged. And again, it goes to show you how much oil prices affect underlying profitability of these upstream companies and how much that then flows backwards into the economy. Again, you know, it’s not breaking any new ground here. Oil prices affect oil revenues when it comes to these companies. But something like Russia, specifically Saudi Arabia and OPEC, mean they’re all for this. That’s why you’ve seen, in my opinion, Saudis step back and say we don’t really want lower oil prices because this is what’s going to happen. [00:09:26][28.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:26] Exactly. What they’re now saying is that this is a indicator and why I picked this story was because they need higher prices just to meet their budget numbers. So you’re going to see OPEC plus continue to lower production. [00:09:41][15.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:42] Yep, absolutely. All right. Let’s move to Bulgaria. [00:09:43][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:44] You got to love a good Bulgaria. I reached out to Irene Asla on this one. Bulgaria starts constructing an irreversible nuclear project with U.S. reactors. This one is really a long term problem for Bulgaria. I think this is fantastic and we should export our nuclear technology. But this is from South Korea and. Westinghouse out of the US. I did not know that the reactors are expected to cost more than $14 billion and the state has already invested $1 billion out of the new coal new capacity project company. That’s unbelievable. [00:10:25][40.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:25] It is pretty unbelievable. What’s creepy is the title Irreversible Nuclear Project. It just kind of creeps me out. It’ll be interesting to see. I mean, I’m all for nuclear here. We know we have got a good friend of the show. Let’s see. Ridge Yes. Doug Sandridge. He’s on the oil and gas for nuclear. We love. [00:10:42][16.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:42] That. Yes, he is the chair over there of the oil and gas executives in support of nuclear. It’s a good organization. [00:10:50][7.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:51] Yeah, it’s it’s it’s a great one. Just I asked you a question. I was reading how over the Bulgarian nuclear project must be notified of the European Commission, which must approve the construction of the two reactors. And I posed it to you. I said, Do you think the EU will? [00:11:05][14.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:06] I think they will. And I really think that they will do. I think they’ll approve it. It won’t be any problem because I think they want U.S. nuclear as opposed to a Russian nuclear. Well. [00:11:16][10.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:17] I see. Well, Stu, we’re back. It’s about five hours ish later since we recorded one. And by all accounts, I think Trump’s going to win. [00:11:26][9.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:26] I think he is. I don’t want to jinx it because I think it’s still too before 2:00 in the morning when all the voters, you know, the votes show up like they did before the Jews allegedly showed up. But I think that what we did see is that they did get it too big to rig in. And you’re watching the CNN. They’re not have and you’re watching see the other folks. I think the Trump team did an outstanding job getting it out there and making it too big to rig and getting people to vote early. Ted Cruz won. Yeah, Ted, this is going to be I bet that we will also see right now President Trump is up in the popular vote as well. This is going to be a mandate. We’re going to take the House right now at the time that we’re recording this. Yet it looks like they’re going to take the Senate and possibly even gain in his seat or two in the House. This is huge because it now means that if he gets the popular vote, how can he get the popular vote and have all of those things that they have been saying about him with all of the gains of the minority men and all of the Hispanic men and women gaining him, gaining all those things, how can he be such a racist if all these people vote for him? This is a huge win. And Michael, in the energy space, that means that we’re going to get some help with the regulatory issues. We’re going to get some help. The the Chevron difference is actually going to make a difference, that we’re going to be able to be a good partner. I’ve been watching and communicating with some of my fellow around the world and they are out of their mind. There are a go trump parties all over the world. This man is there wanting peace around the world. [00:13:24][118.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:25] Yeah, I mean, it’s I would not have expected I think what you said is quite true. He’s going to win the popular vote. I mean, I’m looking at The New York Times. They have the little election meter. It’s it’s 939 here Central Time. And it’s he’s up he’s at 86% chance to win. I mean, that’s pretty crazy. This early on, I would have told you it would have been way more. I was I figured it’d be toss up until, like you said, 2 a.m. when all the votes finally arrive. So it’s pretty crazy that he’s already gotten to this point. I’m like I said, it’s 940. As we record this currently, The New York Times Live Presidential forecast. Trump will ask me to have 297 Electoral College votes. Kamala Harris with 241. He’s up eight percentage points on the popular vote. I mean, you’re right there. That’s a mandate right there. I mean, for so long, it’s been there’s no way there’s no way for the Republicans. I mean, no one’s even talked about the popular vote. You know, historically, we’ve you know, Republicans have always lost the popular vote going back to 2016 or historically just in the last really two elections from the standpoint of, you know, we always talk about New York and Florida going to tip the scales. They have a holy smokes. It’s pretty great. [00:14:35][69.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:35] Here’s the thing. If we don’t get our elections under control and if any of the funny business that’s been going on in elections, people need to go to jail for ten years. I’m serious. This needs to stop this boo shenanigans around elections and cheating has to stop. [00:14:54][18.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:54] Nope, it absolutely will. Two things. Yeah. As you said on Ted Cruz, I think it was a lot. He kind of blew it out relative to what I think the all sides pointed to. So that’s great to hear. But let let’s turn now as we are the Energy News be podcast and then finish up with the. On energy. You go first. [00:15:10][16.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:11] Well, I’ll tell you what the with this impact and with what’s needed around the world right now, and that is LNG exports, we are looking at more investments from foreign countries into the US on our energy is fantastic for U.S. jobs and our economy. This is huge. People are going to want to buy our natural gas. [00:15:36][24.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:36] So I’ll answer this question, but I want to pose it to you first. The question I keep getting asked is if Trump wins with his drill, baby, drill strategy, where do prices go? You’re up first. [00:15:48][12.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:49] I think we’re going to hit the 85 to 90 still. And the reason I say that I am a bull because we talked about that a little earlier in the show, Russian needs it. Russia took a 26% hit in this past quarter on their has a lower numbers take a look at Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia cannot pay the sovereign debt or the sovereign fund and anything less than $80. They control a significant chunk. The US controls a significant chunk and at $80 oil, we can lower our interest rates. If we stop putting renewable energy out there, You’re going to see the death of the wind farms and the whales go nay. And we if we stop doing that, you’re going to see a lower energy price. It’s all about getting lower energy prices. And if we go to natural gas everywhere we can and get that cost per kilowatt per hour down, yeah, Trump will do it. He said he’s going to lower. Trump said, I will lower your electric bills at 50% in my first year. The only way President Trump can lower your your energy bills by 50% is natural gas takes too many years for nuclear. I see a big boom for natural gas power plant. [00:17:07][77.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:07] Yeah, I think there is. You know just as a quick you know, we’re now it’s now 943 and it’s up to it’s now 85% chance of victory. So it’s it’s it was up at 88. It’s going down I think it’s because they’re calling Wisconsin for Kamala Harris. I think that’s what they’re they’re doing right now. No, no, no, no, no. It’s 66% for Jeb. What did they what are they calling for? Harris Something’s flipping around here. I got CNBC up in the background because all I want to know is what happens to big tech. So to answer the question and then we’ll let everybody get out of here, you’re going to hear enough politics all week so we don’t want to bore you. But as it goes with the energy, I tend to take the opposite approach from you of you would you would expect prices to fall solely based on the theory that a Republican administration going back to really Bill Clinton prices have risen during Democratic administrations and fallen during Republican administrations. So if you just lay that theory out over the arc of his presidency, you will see prices come down. The question is, where do they bottom out? Is it 50? Is it 60? Is it are we at the bottom now? It’s 70 is still right. Well, we actually see a curve. I think you bring up a very key point. And I know Artie Trevino are a good friend of the show. He was supposed to join us, but he’s in his pajamas right now. He texted us. So we didn’t want to we we didn’t want to scare anybody. Everybody with that. But please go get it. He’s Grigori. It comes down to Saudi Arabia. It really does. What is Saudi going to do? Are they going to turn the taps on or are they going to keep tightening it up? Well, I. [00:18:36][88.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:36] Think the press just said that they are going to Russia said they’re going to stop the. [00:18:41][5.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:41] Oil. Well, that’s what they said. The question is, you can say one that we hear too often. People say one thing and do the other. So, yes, that’s the that’s all the report. But things can change. Maybe they were saying that based off the right based off that maybe they thought Carmelo was going. I don’t know. All I would say is if you’re an oil, if you if you’re in oil and gas, I would brace for a slightly lower oil price. Now, I think the interesting thing to think about is a lot of why companies aren’t as profitable as you’d think they were at $7,080. Oil is inflation so great, bring down inflation overall. That means the cost to procure services is a lot better and a lot cheaper, meaning that there could actually be more of a margin to be made at a slightly lower oil price if in fact the overall inflation comes down. I think you’re absolutely right on the renewables standpoint, is that obviously I’m going to go out on a limb and this is a huge limb that a lot of the green new scam is going to get rolled back, meaning hopefully that contributes to a lower cost of energy regardless of where oil prices go. I do think natural gas is going to naturally rise, if only because we’re going to start exporting more. And the more natural gas we export, the higher that price will go. Part of the reason why the prices domestically have been so constrained is we don’t have anywhere to put it and we can’t quite export it. So obviously, things are going you know, it’s now 947 is up to an 87% chance of victory and he’s plus one percentage point. According to The New York Times on the popular vote. It’s about time we switch over to MSNBC. I saw this great tweet by one of my good followers on Twitter by RV. He says Fox until it’s called then MSNBC to see a meltdown. [00:20:21][99.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:22] I’ve been watching the X, I’ve got decision USA over here with war room. Look at I got my war room working, you know, getting to see General Flynn and Larry. [00:20:33][11.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:34] Of course, you got General Flynn a. [00:20:35][1.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:36] He a he’s my people. [00:20:37][1.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:38] Well, all right. That’s it, folks. We’ll let you get out here. You’re going to hear so much political talk. We just wanted to make sure we tie in in energy. So, Stu, still saying 85 to $90 oil and gas. I’m probably saying 60 to 70 is kind of that threshold. Maybe you might see a high 50s, but I don’t necessarily see it getting it lower down there. I think we both see natural gas prices increasing either way. I think that’s good for oil. Either way, Trump is going to be good for the oil business if you work in there. Stu’s already call it a shocker. Stu, you voted for Trump. Who would have thought so? [00:21:08][30.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:08] Wow. I like President Trump. [00:21:09][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:10] Absolutely. [00:21:10][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:11] SOP more Iran sanctions and drill, baby, drill Oil markets Future is still uncertain Under Trump. US oil producers are looking forward to less regulations on crude oil production under a Donald Trump presidency. I couldn’t agree more. The American people don’t realize that the US administration under Biden Harris has cost the US taxpayers trillions of dollars through regulatory actions put in place. Conceptually, the impact of a potential Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short term downside risks to Iran’s oil supply and thus an upside price risk, said Goldman Sachs commodities analyst. The medium term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP on a potential escalation in trade tensions. Here’s my prediction. I believe that with the growth and the sigh of relief that the world has has now come out and said, we are glad that President Trump is in office because Putin is now going to negotiate for a Ukraine settlement. You’re going to see potentially Taiwan not get invaded. You’re going to see a very different world coming around the corner. That means people don’t want wars. So I think with you don’t have wars, you have higher demand in oil and gas in this goes back to the old Turley’s law, if you would. The more money we spend on renewable energy, the more fossil fuels we use. Those numbers have held up true over the last four years, and I’m trying to get it all put together into a report. So when you take a look at U.S. oil and gas production hit the highs under the Biden administration, think of what we could have done if we had a energy friendly administration and really trying to tee up a long term contract for LNG export, which would have helped the environment. And in fact, you’ve got California going along. And I’m sorry for ranting for half a segment. Governor Newsom has teed up Californians to import oil excuse me, gasoline. And diesel for China. [00:21:11][0.0][759.3]

Energy News Beat