Source: Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter
ENB Pub Note: This article is very interesting and has a lot to digest. While I am not a Putin fan and think any war is bad, Andrew adds credibility to Putin’s claims that he is just responding to NATO and the United States’ agenda of expansion. I cannot pretend to understand Russian politics, or Putin’s motives, but he does have Russia first and that needs to be respected.
Andrew Korybko is a Russian Substack author and geopolitical analyst. He has an interesting view on geopolitical conflicts, and while I do not agree with everything he says, Andrew does bring in some really good discussion points. He is worth following on his Substack HERE:
Saakashvili was jailed because he abused his power under the US’ orders, lost the proxy war with Russia that he initiated at his patrons’ bidding, and then returned to Georgia after a comparatively more sovereign government came to office and made good on its pledge to bring him to justice. Zelensky has also done the exact same and might thus befall a similar fate if he stays in Ukraine or returns there later.
Zelensky accused Russia on Monday of trying to kill former Georgian President Saakashvili after images of him looking emaciated in prison began virally circulating across the Mainstream Media following his latest video testimony earlier that day. The irony is that it’s none other than the West itself that’s responsible for the latter’s predicament, however, which the former would do well to realize since there’s a chance that he might also befall a similar fate.
As was assessed last August, “The 2008 Georgian Conflict Was The US’ Template For The 2022 Ukrainian One”, which is relevant for readers to review if they haven’t already. The preceding hyperlinked analysis explains the strategic connections between these two seemingly different conflicts to argue that there are actually more than a few similarities. Of pertinence to the present piece is the role played by their countries’ leaders in their respective US-backed proxy wars against Russia.
Saakashvili was ordered by his patrons to launch a sneak attack against South Ossetia, which he was assured would end in his side’s swift success and the subsequent reconquest of that breakaway region. What actually happened was that Russia was prompted to commence a five-day-long peace enforcement mission that led to the loss of that territory and nearby Abkhazia after the Kremlin recognized them as sovereign states, which they remain to this day.
Likewise, Zelensky was ordered by his patrons to launch a sneak attack against Donbass that he was also assured would end in his side’s swift success, but Russia’s special operation preempted this at the very last minute. Instead of reconquering that breakaway region, Kiev lost it and two others after they voted to join Russia last September. The conventional conflict provoked by these Western plans continues raging sixteen months after it began, unlike Georgia’s speedy resolution, but it’ll also end in failure.
Kiev’s NATO–backed counteroffensive has been a disaster, which even the Mainstream Media has admitted and begun making excuses for, as have its own officials. Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Michael McCaul cautioned in early June that the failure to meet Western expectations could lead to a reduction in tangible support for their proxy. Zelensky knows that time is running out as proven by him recently urging his troops to produce at least some results before next week’s NATO Summit.
He earlier criticized his Western patrons’ expectations when talking to the BBC late last month, as did other unnamed senior officials according to The Economist in a report that was published around then too. Meanwhile, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny colorfully expressed in a recent interview with the Washington Post how flustered it makes him that they’re criticizing the counteroffensive. Quite clearly, it’s beginning to dawn on decisionmakers in Kiev that Ukraine likely won’t be invited to join NATO.
Not only that, but they wasted tens of thousands of lives trying to reconquer territory that wouldn’t have even been lost in the first place they not gone along with the US’ plot to replicate the Georgian scenario, which prompted Russia to preemptively stop them. Furthermore, Kiev might have been able to avert Kherson and Zaporozhye Regions’ unification with Russia had it not let the Anglo-American Axis sabotage spring 2022’s peace process, which led to a signed draft treaty before everything was ruined.
Ukraine has therefore fared much worse than Georgia since it’s been utterly devasted by the conventional conflict that’s raged over the past sixteen months and lost two additional regions that weren’t even disputed prior to the onset of Russia’s special operation. If the West eventually cuts off Kiev’s arms supply after the failure of Kiev’s NATO-backed counteroffensive, which President Putin and Medvedev said could end the conflict right away, then Zelensky’s political capital would evaporate.
He might have retained his people’s support and that of their powerful military-intelligence-oligarchic elite trifecta had he held his ground and saw spring 2022’s peace process through to its end, but it’s practically impossible that they’ll back him if he’s forced to settle for even less now. Too many lives have been lost, property destroyed, and regions unified with Russia for him to spin even a temporary cessation of hostilities – not to mention an armistice and especially a peace treaty – as a victory.
The likelihood that his patrons will place him in exactly that position increases by the day as his side’s counteroffensive becomes one of Western Civilization’s worst humiliations in recent memory. In order to retain their influence over Ukraine in that scenario, it wouldn’t be surprising if they supported a regime change plot by popular military officials like Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny and/or military-intelligence (GUR) chief Budanov to replace Zelensky as a means of preemptively thwarting a potential uprising.
After all, it would serve those two’s and their shared Western patrons’ interests to direct popular anger towards the country’s figurehead leader after folks realize how much they sacrificed for nothing instead of risking the chance that it could target them. Even if they gamble with letting him remain in power for the sake of international optics, he’ll face an uphill battle for re-election, if he even decides to run that is. Either way, his political future would be ruined the moment that the West forces him into peace talks.
Just like Saakashvili before him, Zelensky could also be charged with abuse of power by his political opponents and held to account for his crimes, thus leading to him being jailed if he’s still in the country or returns to it to carry out a Color Revolution along the lines of what the Georgian leader tried to do. If post-war Ukraine regains a lot of the sovereignty that it lost to the West like Georgia has since done as proven by it revealing a Western plot to take Sochi, then the chances of this happening rise even further.
Saakashvili was jailed because he abused his power under the US’ orders, lost the proxy war with Russia that he initiated at his patrons’ bidding, and then returned to Georgia after a comparatively more sovereign government came to office and made good on its pledge to bring him to justice. Zelensky has also abused his power under the US’ orders, lost the proxy war with Russia that he initiated at his patrons’ bidding, and might thus also befall a similar fate if he stays in Ukraine or returns there later.
The US doesn’t have any allies, only vassals that it controls like Zelensky’s Ukraine and Saakashvili’s Georgia before him or partners like India in the rare case that a country successfully defends their sovereignty in the face of immense pressure so as to finally be treated by it as an equal. An ally implies that America will support whatever country it may be out of loyalty to them even at the possible expense of its own interests, which it’ll never do and is why it’s accurate to say that it doesn’t have any.
Zelensky’s Ukraine is just another vassal to be ruthlessly exploited in pursuit of restoring the US’ fading unipolar hegemony, but instead of serving their purpose, he and his country are becoming a burden that risks leading to blowback if the conflict isn’t frozen and Russia’s on-the-ground gains continue to grow. He’s therefore going to be discarded sooner or later and one way or another just like Saakashvili was, with the only question being whether he’ll remain free, be brought to justice, or perhaps loses his life.
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