Austin, Oakland, San Francisco, Detroit, New Orleans, Jacksonville, Denver, Portland, Seattle, Mesa. Tampa is almost there, as are other markets.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Here are 10 big cities where condo prices have dropped by 10% to 22% from their respective peaks. Most of those peaks were in mid-2022. They’re examples of home prices coming unglued in many markets, while they’re still rising in other markets. Every market dances to its own drummer, as we can see in the charts below.
The city of Austin leads the pack with condo prices down by 22% from the peak in July 2022, followed by Oakland, with a decline of 20% from the peak in May 2022.
Not on this list yet is Tampa, which is a top runner-up, lacking just one small additional month-to-month down-tick to get to -10%, which would then qualify it for this list.
We’re looking at seasonally adjusted three-month average prices of “mid-tier” condos. Limiting the choice to “mid-tier” minimizes the impact of shifts in the mix. The data are from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals.
If these charts look absurd, it’s because the housing market became absurd in the early 2000s, when the Fed kept interest rates too low for too long, creating the enormous Housing Bubble 1 that then turned into the enormous Housing Bust 1, which turned into the Financial Crisis, upon which the Fed used zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) and QE to restart this process all over again.
But nothing compared to what the Fed did during the pandemic, which led to below-3% mortgages further fueled by its trillions of dollars in QE and by the federal government’s trillions of dollars in annual deficit spending. And all this turned the housing market into an absurdity that is now coming unglued.
| Austin, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -22% | -0.6% | -5.7% | 122% |
| Oakland, City, Condo Home Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -20% | -0.6% | -6.7% | 183% |
| San Francisco, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -14% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 144% |
| Detroit, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Sep 2021 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -13% | -0.4% | -5.0% | 270% |
| New Orleans, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -11% | 0.1% | -5.5% | 102% |
| Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Nov 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10% | -0.6% | -6.9% | 176% |
| Denver, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10.0% | -0.4% | -4.7% | 152% |
| Portland, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10% | -0.3% | -3.1% | 118% |
| Seattle, City Condo Prices | |||
| From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10% | 0.0% | -1.2% | 148% |
| Mesa, City, Condo Prices | |||
| From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 |
| -10% | -0.3% | -3.5% | 218% |
We give you energy news and help invest in energy projects too, click here to learn more
Crude Oil, LNG, Jet Fuel price quote
ENB Top News
ENB
Energy Dashboard
ENB Podcast
ENB Substack
Energy News Beat