After two weeks of fighting, Ukraine claims to have taken control of 1,250 square kilometres of Kursk Oblast in Russia, but also of a gas terminal that supplies Europe.
The town of Sudzha, just 10 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, has become a focal point of the Ukrainian offensive and is now home to a newly established Ukrainian military administration.
The once quiet road from Sudzha to Sumy was bustling with life on Monday when Euractiv visited the area. Ukrainian tanks under camouflage netting, American armoured vehicles and numerous pickup trucks bearing the symbol of the operation, a white triangle, were rushing to and from Russia. On one of the vehicles returning from the border, the triangle replaced the dreaded Russian Z on two trophy vehicles “recovered” from the Russians.
“It’s easier to work here because it was very, very well organised, and we finally have enough of everything”, Petro, a logistician in an assault brigade, told Euractiv on his way back from the border. The village where he made a pit stop, some 15 kilometres from the border, is now out of artillery range as the Ukrainians push deeper into Russia.
About a 30-minute drive from there, the small Russian village of Suzdha is strategically important to Europe as it is the only entry point for Russian gas into Ukraine before reaching European customers.
Despite the EU’s restrictive measures limiting energy flow from Russia, EU countries Slovakia, Hungary and Austria still consume Russian gas which is delivered via the Sudzha pipeline. These are the main recipients, but Italy and Croatia also get a specific share of the gas.
The last gas metering station on Russia’s Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhhorod pipeline outside Ukrainian territory fell under Kyiv’s control on 7 August.
Ukrainian military experts speculate that the site could serve as a shelter for Ukrainian troops and equipment against Russian drones and glide bombs.
Another transit route from Rostov to EU territory via Sokhranivka in the Luhansk region has been blocked by Kyiv since 11 May 2022. The Ukrainian Transmission System Operator then claimed it could no longer operate the transit pipelines because they fell into occupied territory.
The Sudzha gas metering station belongs to a pipeline system initially called Brotherhood, which the Soviets built in the 1980s when no one expected war would rage between Moscow and Kyiv. The facility has so far allowed the registration of the delivery and receipt of gas for transit through the territory of Ukraine to European consumers.
However, it remains unclear whether Ukraine controls the nearby gas compressor on Russian territory, which could halt gas transit. Neither the Ukrainian gas operator nor the Ukrainian Energy Ministry responded to Euractiv’s requests for comment.
In 2023, the volume of Russian gas transit through Ukraine averaged 42-42.4 million cubic metres per day, about half of Russia’s natural gas exports. On 8 August, Ukraine’s gas operator confirmed to the energy consulting firm ExPro reports that it had fallen to 37.25 million cubic metres. However, according to Gazprom, it had returned to 42.4 million cubic metres by 15 August.
An application to pump through Sohranivka was “rejected” by the Ukrainian side, a Gazprom representative told reporters for the Russian state news agency TASS on 12 August.
By comparison, the TurkStream pipeline, which links Russia to south-eastern Europe, transported an average of 45.5 million cubic metres of gas per day in July.
Although gas prices briefly spiked due to potential disruptions at Sudzha, the impact of the Ukrainian incursion appears to be limited.
“The primary risk is military,” Serhiy Makogon, former head of Ukraine’s gas transmission system operator, told Ukrainian media NV.
Five major gas pipelines run through the Sudzha region, crisscrossing the entire region.
“If Russia starts using heavy artillery and air strikes, the risk of technical damage to the infrastructure is very high,” he said, asserting that Ukrainian operations had not damaged the Sudzha gas metering station, which remains operational.
“I’d like to point out that our forces conducted operations there without using heavy weapons. The gas metering station in Sudzha hasn’t been damaged and is still operational,” he added.
He also noted that if there was a problem getting real-time, daily information about the gas passing through this station, it could lead to commercial risks.
Moreover, the contract with Gazprom expires at the end of 2024, and neither Ukraine nor Europe wants to extend it, although they are discussing alternative options for loading the gas transmission system (with Azerbaijani gas, for example).
In the last quarter of 2024, gas which transited through Ukraine accounted for gas circa 5% of total EU imports, according to figures from think tank Bruegel.
“If Ukraine wanted to, it would have terminated this contract a long time ago, but Kyiv did not do it at the request of the European Union,” Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programmes at the Ukraine-based Razumkov Centre think tank, told Euractiv.
Kyiv earns a little more than a billion dollars a year from the transit of Russian gas – these funds are just enough to maintain the gas transportation system in standard working order.
“Russia really wants to maintain its presence in the European gas market and be able to exert political pressure on the countries of Eastern Europe,” Makogon, who headed the state-owned operator from 2019 to 2022, said.
Omelchenko stressed that transit remains vital for Russia.
Despite a shrinking number of countries receiving Russian gas, it still generates about €6 billion each year.
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