Tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs on, tariffs off… the world’s traders are dancing the commodity hokey-cokey to the hurdy-gurdy daily churn of US trade and foreign policy. The one conclusion that everyone can agree on is that life is going to become more expensive in the coming few years as the cost of doing business with the US, or in US dollars, goes up. Tanker owners have caught up with the idea that they may be on the hook for the egregious port surcharges that the US may impose on operators calling at US ports with Chinese owned or built oil tankers.
S&P brokers are salivating at the potential shuffling of the global tanker fleet as some owners with significant US business but significant Chinese content in their fleets may seek to substitute in ships built in, say, Japan or South Korea. Careful, lads: there is no guarantee that the Dept of Trade’s Tariff Eye of Sauron will not alight on vessels built in other countries in due course. After all, we are still not yet three months into this US presidency; there is plenty of time yet before the MAGA Republicans get destroyed in the mid-terms.
As the US EIA publishes data showing that US shale oil production is peaking and will probably decline after 2026, we will let wiser heads answer the question, how quickly can the US build enough oil tankers to manage its future oil imports and exports?
Elsewhere, the demand and supply balance of oil markets is pointing to oversupply and lower prices. In China, Sinopec has announced a 16% fall in profits blaming a nationwide fall in demand not just for transport fuel but also for petrochemicals, which were supposed to be the key future driver of Chinese oil demand. Sinopec’s chemicals unit operating loss widened by 66% to RMB10b ($1.38bn). CNOOC and PetroChina will report on March 27 and 30.
OPEC+ has announced plans to rein in quota-busting overproduction particularly in Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia (good luck with that guys). Trump is doing his part to help by tightening US sanctions on Iranian oil production and oil tankers and asking Russia for help in stopping Iran’s nuclear weapon programme. Good luck with the anti-proliferation scheme as Poland, German, South Korea and Japan are thinking seriously about acquiring their own ultimate deterrents.
As oil prices bottomed out earlier in March with WTI going as slow as $66.03 before recovering to over $68.20, crude oil and refined products tanker markets lifted shipowners’ sentiment via higher day rates. Over 30 days to 21 March, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index improved 9% to 990 points, while the Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 18% to 848 points, its highest level since last July.
Assessed time charter equivalents on the US-China VLCC route slipped from around $43,000 per day in late February to a low of $36,654 on March 12 before recovering to $43,446 on March 21. Brisker fixing on the Middle East to China voyage led to a 12% improvement in rates between February 21 and March 21, to $46,589, though the market peaked two days earlier at $52,126.
Suezmaxes continue to be the darlings as rates on the shiny new Guyana to ARA route gained 19% to $39,922 over 30 days to March 21, via a peak of $42,913 four days earlier. The more mature cross Med route added 11% to a comfortable $42,923 while the Dangota-defying WAF to UKC voyage added 13% to reach a commendable $40,975.
Aframaxes were more muted, as a range of regional differences cancelled each other out. Recent excitement on North Sea- Germany discharge dissipated in the Spring sunshine as rates lost 11% to land at $25,230, though afras loading from North Sea platforms to discharge in the UK added 30%, rising to a stonking $62,939. In the Middle East, ships loading in Kuwait for Singapore discharge enjoyed a 9% increase over the 30 days to March 21 when the TCE was assessed at $33,735.
In defiance of tariffs, aframaxes loading in the US Gulf for ARA discharge enjoyed a steady improvement in earnings in March adding 11% by the 21st to an assessed $35,548 a day. The star performer however was the Singapore to Australia voyage which added 48% to recover from lows of around $21,000 a day in February to $31,045 on March 21, as Aussies booked their Easter holidays in Bali and airlines filled up on jetfuel. The MR tanker sector enjoyed that trend too, with rates from Singapore to the Aussie east coast up 14% at $23,034 and the TCE from South Korea to Australia up 10% to $20,334.
Oil products tanker markets followed up a volatile February with a glamorous March. the benchmark LR2 voyage from the Middle East to Japan spiked by 69% over the month to March 21, reaching a tidy $38,714 via a peak of $40,100 on March 18. Daily TCEs for LR1s on the same voyage rose 68% to $29,844 on March 21 via a peak of $30,028 a day earlier.
TCEs for LR2s on the voyage from the Mid East to UK/Cont added 61% over the same period to achieve a tasty $42,076, while LR1 earnings for that voyage rose 62% to $33,779. The MR Atlantic basket added 26% to reach $28,283 on March 21, while the Pacific basket rise faster, by 30% to $24,317.
All in all, March has been a rewarding month for tanker owners.
Energy News Beat