By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Location, location, location, I mean, country, country, country is the mantra in real estate. We’re going on a wild ride across sales prices of existing homes (“dwellings”) of all types in the 16 largest counties that are either in the European Union (EU) or in the European Economic Area (EEA), based on data from Eurostat through Q1, released on Friday. The data goes back to 2010.
It’s going to be a wild ride because some countries have indeed the most splendid housing bubbles that are now deflating, others have most splendid bubbles that are not yet deflating and hit new highs, and others, such as Italy, are at or below were they were in 2010.
Biggest decliners from the peak:
Germany: -15.0%Finland: -12.6%Sweden: -10.3%Austria: -9.6%France: -6.8%Denmark: -5.8%
Biggest gainers from 2010 to their respective peak:
Austria: +136%Czech Republic: +130%Portugal: +104%Germany: +104%Sweden: +103%Norway: +101%
The tail end.
Italy’s home prices are below where they had been in 2010. Finland’s home prices have dropped back to where they’d been in 2010.
And Spain’s home prices, after a deep trough, are just 5.7% above where they’d been in 2010. Spain had a fabulously splendid housing bubble that imploded spectacularly, but it happened before 2010, and the implosion dragged into 2015, after which prices rose again. These markets are at the other end of the spectrum.
The most splendid housing bubbles:
In order of the increase from 2010 through the peak. All indices here are set at 100 for 2010. So when an index is now at 200, it means the prices have doubled (+100%) since 2010.
Austria, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak136.2%-0.8%-4.6%-9.6%
Czech Republic, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak130.3%1.2%1.3%-2.3%
Portugal, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak104.4%1.1%7.6%New high
Germany, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak104.2%-1.1%-6.2%-15.0%
Sweden, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak103.2%1.1%-0.7%-10.3%
Norway, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak100.8%3.7%1.5%-1.8%
Poland, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak95.7%4.0%16.4%New high
Netherlands, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak68.7%2.4%3.8%-0.6%
Ireland, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak62.5%2.6%5.7%New high
Denmark, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak61.5%-2.5%1.2%-5.8%
Belgium, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak52.9%0.4%2.3%New high
France, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak39.0%-2.3%-5.2%-6.8%
Romania, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak17.5%0.8%2.2%New high
Finland, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak16.9%-2.2%-5.4%-12.6%
Spain, Prices of Existing Homes2010 to PeakQoQYoYFrom peak5.7%2.2%5.8%New high
Italy, Prices of Existing Homessince 2011 peakQoQYoY-18.3%0.24%0.7%
This was the inaugural post of a new quarterly series, The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Europe. It complements our two long-running very popular series, The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America and The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada
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