Tesla +24.6%, Toyota +2%. Model Y +52%, #1 bestseller by far; Model 3 is #2 bestseller. Toyota loses it, Camry sales -16%, RAV4 +1%.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Tesla’s share of all light vehicles sold in California in 2023 surged to 13.0%, behind only Toyota, whose share fell to 15.7% (from 17.3% in 2022), according to the California New Car Dealer Association, based on registrations data by Experian. Honda was #3 with a share of 9.7%. Toyota and Honda had ruled California before the arrival of Tesla.
Tesla’s sales in California jumped by 24.6% in 2023. Toyota’s sales edged up merely 2.0%. This is now the battle for #1 in California. It’s between these two automakers. No one else is even close. Back in 2019, Toyota’s share had been 17.2%, while Tesla’s share was just 3.8%. Toyota has essentially no EVs to sell; Tesla only has EVs. This represents a massive shift in the market, instigated by a newcomer and only automaker that manufactures vehicles in California.
Tesla’s Model Y and Model 3 were by far the #1 and #2 bestsellers in California in 2023 by registrations, far ahead of the next models in line: Model Y sales spiked by 52% to 132,636; Model 3 sales rose by 4.9% to 82,786.
Sales of the Toyota RAV4 dipped by 1% to 58,496. Sales of the Camry, the former #1 model in California, plunged by 17%, to 51,330. Those two have gotten totally crushed not only by the Model Y but also by the Model 3.
Toyota has completely dropped the ball with EVs. Toyota has no EV to speak of. A year ago, Toyota’s longtime anti-EV CEO Akio Toyoda was forced out and replaced by a new guy, Lexus boss Koji Sato, under whom Toyota is now trying to build an EV strategy, while he’s dousing the media with commentary about how EVs will never amount to much – to distract from Toyota’s fumble. Losing the #1 bestseller spot in California would be very embarrassing.
Toyota sales have also been on a down-trend in the entire US since the peak in 2015, and we discussed this here.
Total new vehicle sales in California rose by 11.9% to 1.775 million in 2023.
Sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) of all types, including hybrids and plugin hybrids, rose by 5.2%, or by 69,298 vehicles. Since the peak in 2016, ICE vehicle sales have plunged by 30% (blue line).
EV sales jumped by 46.1%, or by 120,204 vehicles, to 389,000 (red line).
While sales of ICE vehicle sales have plunged by 600,000 since the recent peak in 2016, EV sales have soared by 340,000, multiplying by over 5:
Tesla is finally getting more EV competition – slowly but surely. Though Tesla’s sales jumped by 24.6%, its share fell to 60.5%. The share of all other EVs combined rose to 39.5%.
The Chevrolet Bolt was the #3 EV model in California, with the lowest-priced model at around $20,000 after federal tax credit, a very desirable price point at which there are not many new vehicles left to buy. But GM ended production of the Bolt in 2023, and now the wait is on for whenever GM will introduce its new Bolt.
None of the Japanese automakers that used to dominate the California market have anything on this list. Seven of the 12 models are by US automakers, including the top three:
Top EV Models in California, 20231Tesla Model Y132,6362Tesla Model 382,7863Chevrolet Bolt19,0414Volkswagen ID.412,2805Ford Mustang Mach-E11,3116Tesla Model X10,4487Hyundai Ioniq 59,6328BMW i48,6959Rivian R1S6,66510Tesla Model S4,71811BMW iX4,6031215 Kia EV64,148
The share of EVs in California – it jumped to 21.4% in 2023, up from 5.8% in 2020 — experienced two big accelerations: in 2018 when Model 3 production got scaled up; and in 2021, when the Model Y production reached scale:
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