Daily Standup Top Stories
Trump Tariffs Threaten UK Economic Stability
Donald Trump’s imposition of new tariffs has triggered fears of a global trade war, with the UK facing a 10% tariff on all goods and potential economic stagnation. Economists and analysts are divided on the […]
EV Battery Costs Set For Sharp Rise On Trump’s Tariffs
New tariffs—especially the 64.9% rate on Chinese battery cells—threaten to significantly raise EV production costs and slow adoption in the U.S. Trump’s revocation of EV tax credits and mandates signals a dramatic pivot away from […]
Oil Price in Freefall Reorders Global Energy Landscape
The plunge in oil prices over the past two days following the twin shocks of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the surprise boost in production from OPEC+ has altered the global energy landscape with stunning […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:50 – Trump Tariffs Threaten UK Economic Stability
07:22 – EV Battery Costs Set For Sharp Rise On Trump’s Tariffs
11:30 – Markets Update
14:58 – Rig Count Update
17::20 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter
Michael Tannner: [00:00:00] It’s really feared and triggered this potential global war, specifically with a lot of our allies. I mean, this article that we’re talking about specifically calls out the United Kingdom, which is facing a 10% tariff on all goods and services pumped in. and you know. like with with all things you’ve got you know economists and analysts are really divided on onto the extent that tariffs you know what tariffs are going to do there’s really a a bunch of schools of thought so i’ll try to kind of lay out the the the rationale for tariffs well i you know one is that we need to reciprocate we need be strong. [00:00:33][33.1]
Michael Tannner: [00:00:41] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Monday, April 7th, 2025 edition of the Daily Energy Newsbeat Standup. Here are today’s top headlines. Tariff heavy, folks. Trump tariffs threaten UK and world economic stability. Unbelievable. Next up, EV batteries cost set to rise sharply amongst Trump tariffs. I will then jump over and do a complete round robber covering everything that has to. It’s happened in the past, you know, 72 hours in the oil and gas markets. We’ll touch a little bit on rig counts and, but really just kind of attempt to get our and wrap our minds around what’s going on in the oil and guest markets guys. As always, I am Michael Tanner. Stu is out on assignment. I’m actually going to be. on a little R and R vacation this week. So I will be back mostly out of the saddle. So you’ll see Stu most of the week. I’ll try to be on the show tomorrow, but really Tuesday, really Wednesday and Thursday, I will be out of commission in a little r and r. Who knows if we’ll even have a job when I come back. So what’s going on the markets guys? So stick in there. Let’s go ahead and kick us off. [00:01:49][68.2]
Michael Tannner: [00:01:50] tariffs threaten UK and world economic stability. I mean, this is, you know, man. what everyone’s talking about it. Newsflash, you’re living under a rock. Tariffs are here and they’ve absolutely crushed the economy. There’s a whole swath of tariffs. You know, by now all we’ve seen the image of Trump holding up the sign, which basically says, here’s what tariffs countries have on us versus what tariffs we have on it. It’s really feared and triggered this potential global war specifically with a lot of our allies. I mean, this, this article that we’re talking about specifically calls out the United Kingdom, which is facing a 10% tariff on all goods and services pumped in. And, you know. like with with all things you’ve got you know economists and analysts are really divided on onto the extent that tariffs you know what tariffs are going to do there’s really a a bunch of schools thought i’ll try to kind of lay out the the the rationale one is that we need to reciprocate we need be strong i think this is probably the outward message that the trump administration is giving is we need to be strong if someone’s going to have a twenty five percent tear on us We’re going to need a 25% tariff on us. It’s a way to raise revenues in the United States without necessarily increasing baseline taxes on folks, which the argument against that is that obviously a tariff is a tax. But beside the point, that’s option one. Option two, and this is where it’s not as outwardly shown, but the underlying maybe second reason why these tariffs are coming down the way they are has to do everything to do with lowering Bonnie. And basically we have 19 trillion of debt that needs to be refinanced in the next 18 months. We would like to do that at a much lower interest rate, try to save ourselves some money in the era of Doge. Why not try to see if we can save some money? One of our biggest expenses is interest expense behind obviously social security and, and defense spending interest on the national debt is, is big. It’s like over a trillion dollars. Maybe we can refinance some of this. get that number down. Now, the problem is they’re not coming out and saying that. I mean, if that’s the reason, I mean, I’m okay with that, I guess. Now are there other ways to go about it? Maybe, maybe don’t rack up debt in the first place, but you know, you’re kind of dealt the cards you have and you got to play with, play with that hand. So if that is the reason why aren’t they coming out saying and that just all comes back to my overall philosophy is you shoot people straight. People should just Just tell p- don’t hide things. People are smart. U.S. people are smart, they’ll understand this. Most people don’t actually have stocks. Yes, they have a 401k, so they are exposed to the market, but tariffs in their mind lead to taxes. So if you’re going to increase prices at home because of- tariffs, which again is fine, you should probably be honest about why you’re doing that. And in the long run, this will be helpful. And, you know, I’m the first I have no idea what the outcome of tariffs are. If you listen to CNBC, you know, Jim Cramer, they’re losing their minds right now because, again, everything just goes onto the stock market. You look at the S&P 500 chart, if it’s not pointing up into the right, that’s not good. If it’s pointing down and to the right, eww, that’s really, really not good, so… I think from that standpoint, I think you’ve got a lot of people that are nervous about what’s going to happen. Obviously, if you listen to stuff coming out of the Trump administration, it could be great, but I think the easiest thing to say is, I don’t know how these tariffs are going to play. Now, what this article does go over is specifically the United Kingdom’s approach to what’s gonna happen, but what you’re seeing is these finance ministers, specifically in the UK or… are are are fairly concerned in the fact that you know they believe that this is going to cost them tens of thousands of jobs you know obviously this is going to bring other countries to the negotiating table and and so I guess the real question that remains to be seen is okay what then exactly is that negotiation going to look like because okay great you’ve now driven stocks to this point I mean we’re you know we’re under five thousand now on the S&P 500 futures, you know, it’s… I don’t really know what the outcome is going to be, but really what this article does is just dive in specifically to the United Kingdom and stuff. I recommend reading it. They definitely say that there is a retaliation that they’re planning. The question is, is a retellation better, or should they come to the negotiating table? And really, where the headache in lies is with the Bank of Inc. move with the Federal Reserve specifically talking about that stuff. Basically, the quote in the article is this. The Bank of England is going to face a dilemma. On one hand, tariffs are going to lift prices of some of the goods and its core remit to keep a lid on inflation as close to 2% as possible, to which point rates staying higher for longer is most likely going to happen. Basically, most economists think that what’s going to happened in England is that they’re That’s what they’ve signaled to the market they’re going to do. So this could be a reversal. And, and, and so, which again, is, is it’s, it’s what in times like this is what you should do. Now, this is the other part is quantitative easing, all the stuff that got us in, in the 2008 mess. Do we want to repeat that? Should we actually let the economy roll over? Who knows, but great article here. [00:07:21][331.4]
Michael Tannner: [00:07:22] Let’s jump to the next one. Staking on the tariffs. EV battery costs shed for sharp rise on Trump’s tariffs, you know, with that 64.9% rate on all Chinese battery cells. You know, basically, the already slow adoption of EVs is set to even lower here in the United States. We also know that Trump has revoked the EV tax credit and signals a dramatic pivot away from all these, you, know, EV policies. You know we also, you now, the largest EV provider right now in the U.S. is Tesla. You know, for Q1 2025, they reported 336,000 deliveries, which was well below the Wall Street consensus since of 377,000 and was as lowest since 2022. I mean, anything that gets imported is gonna get hurt. Specifically, EVs, which make none of that here in the United States. We make very little parts for EVs in the United States, so any sorts of alternatives are gonna get a heck of a lot cheaper at the same time. when oil is now below $60. We’ll cover oil here in a second. So, it’s gonna be super interesting. Basically, this push that we’re going into the EV market, these tariffs basically add up to 100%. I mean, there’s a 34% tariff that was already imposed on EV batteries, and now they’re putting another 64.9. So, I mean you’re basically looking at… You’re basically looking at a 100% tariff. They claim this ad would add about $8 billion in costs for battery pack producers and EV makers, most of that flowing back to China. We do have a pretty large trade deficit with China, but the question is, is this really going to solve the problem? I’ll be the first to say, I don’t know if this will. Obviously, the markets are getting absolutely hammered right now. Who knows what’s going to happen? all I know. I think Trump is between a rock and a hard place here, because if he all of a sudden comes out and rescinds these tariffs, then I think he loses some theoretical credibility. When he comes out and says something, how are people going to be able to take him seriously? Talking about tariffs for over 20 years now, really 30 years now. Going back to late 80s, and so really the question is, if he sticks with this, Obviously, you know, this means we’re in. in for a ride. So I would expect these to stay, but yes, everything’s going to get a heck of a lot more expensive, specifically these EV batteries. [00:09:51][149.0]
[00:09:52] Let’s jump over into finance, guys. Before we do that, let’s quickly pay the bills. As always, thank you for checking us out here on the world’s greatest website, energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas. business, go ahead and hit that description below all links to the timestamps, links to the articles. If you would be so kind, go ahead and subscribe to our newsletter via sub stack, the energy newsbeat dot sub stack.com. Stu is dropping some great subscriber and paid for only articles. So highly, highly recommend you guys checking that out. Also guys check out Reese energy consulting. We’re doing their, their tremendous supporters of the show at a time when every dollar matters on your first purchaser in midstream context. They’re your go-to folks, all of your midstream marketing. If you’re in the LNG space trying to, you know, at any point, whether you’re trying to an upstart, trying to build a new LNG facility, thinking about expanding your global footprint, call our friends at Reese energy consulting. And, and, and they’re going to, they’re gonna help you out with all of that. That’s recent energy consulting dot com, or you can hit the link in the description below. And as always guys, if you are interested in investing in oil and gas and truly becoming Billy Bob Thornton from land man. Go ahead and hit the description below or go to invest in oil.energynewsby.com. The best place to learn how to get a little bit of a monthly distribution. You know, basic, you’ll get a great, great tax write-off, diversify your portfolio and also come Billy Bob Thornton from Landman guys. That’s invest in Oil.EnergyNewsBeat.com. [00:11:27][95.5]
Michael Tannner: [00:11:30] I mean, guys, markets got absolutely hammered on Friday. S&P was down basically 5.9 percentage points, almost six percentage points. NASDAQ was down six percentage point, two and 10 year yields. Two year yields was down 1.4 percentage points 10 year yield down a full percentage point. Dollar index dropped about three tenths of a percentage point on recording. It’s about seven o’clock. here on Sunday night and, and the futures are down about 3.8 percentage points below 5,000 for the S and P 500 futures. NASDAQ futures down 4.6 percentage points, Bitcoin down six percentage points below 78, 79,000 sitting about 78 35 crude oil guys take an absolute dump it’s below. $60 59 89 or down about two dollars and eleven cents even in the open that happened about an hour and a half ago Brent oil actually fairly flat which is you know an interesting conundrum there natural gas down about nine cents or two dollars or 2.3 percentage points three dollars and seventy four cents our XOP which is our EMP securities contract was down 10.6 percentage points on Friday And I bet it closes below a hundred on Monday. As you guys listen to this, because the sell-offs going to continue. You know, I mean, really this last two days has been crazy. If you’ve been following the business now for the last two days, so basically on Tuesday, we were up over $70. And if you open your eyes today, we’re now at $59, which is a pretty drastic swing. There’s a lot that’s going into it. I think that the sentiment that tariffs are causing this. think is slightly misguided. I think tariffs are playing a role in, but I think really what’s playing a roll is the fact that OPEC plus has decided to go ahead and boost production on top of what they’ve already said they’re going to do. They were already planning on increasing about 118,000 barrels per day. They come out and said, we’re now actually going to add 410,000 per day over the next couple months to the market in order to theoretically balance out overproduction and hurt the overproduction that’s been happening from countries like Kazakhstan and Iran, which isn’t necessarily included in all this, but that’s the main cause is OPEC’s movement there. Now it’s oddly timed specifically with tariffs, and so I think the general tariffs are going to lead to a worse economy, which is going to impact oil demand, couple that with Increase supply from OPEC, and now you’ve got a recipe for… some hyper, hyper bearish sentiment. I think the real question you’ve got to be asking is, is this for the long term? And it’s possible. Everyone is revising their output lower. In Veras, they went ahead and slashed about a third from its demand growth model. Basically, everybody is cutting outside of them their global demand forecast by 50%. You know, this is Al Salazar, head of macro oil and gas. research it in various moment the president Trump put the tariffs put the tariffs that were hammering on Canada almost two months ago we already had downgraded our forecast the timing on the OPEC announcement felt like them piling on you know is it piling or is it just they’re they’re trying to time it you know if the timing is interesting I think the the weird part to say is this whole drill baby drill well that ain’t gonna happen there is absolute no way. [00:14:57][207.2]
Michael Tannner: [00:14:58] We’re going to see a huge increase in drill baby drill. I mean, rig counts on Friday were down two, which is, is we’re going to see, we’re gonna see a big negative number on that. There’s absolutely no way we’re to continue to drill. I mean Rep Bennett had a great LinkedIn post about this talking about, you know, the idea of break evens. Everyone talks about, well, what’s your break even? What’s your breakeven? Well, nobody does anything to break even. You discount something on an NBB 10 basis. and it’s breakeven, you’re still getting nothing. Now, there is a cash-on-cash component to this, but no one does any. You need at least a 20% to 30% IRR for a oil and gas company to get interest. And so I think the part that is gonna be really interesting is how low do oil prices go in the face of no new real supply coming on from the United States. Obviously the supply is coming from OPEC, And, you know… to make matters more interesting, Trump loves, I mean Trump wants oil prices low, and ironically he wants oil price low and he’s got a huge constituents of people in the oil and gas business that enjoy him. If we see sustained $55 to $65 oil, growth in the business is going to be tough, and I think you’re going to see people struggle a little bit. So, I think the real question… And the real question that you need to be asking if you’re an oil and gas producer is at what price do I add and do I go actually and attack my inventory? Everybody claims they’ve got inventory down to $45 break even. So theoretically at 55, would you drill? Maybe, so this is gonna test a lot of those inventory assumptions, stuff that Scott Sheffield mentioned three, four weeks ago. What happens? those double eagle boys conveniently timed their sale as always. And it’s going to be super interesting to see what happens, guys. I mean, we’re going to with this. I may have to tap in. I’m on vacation, if anything crazy happens, but oh man, oil markets,. [00:17:01][123.6]
Michael Tannner: [00:17:02] Guys, why we love the business, guys. It’s why we loved the business. And with that, I’m going to go ahead and let you get out of here, get back to work, start your week. We appreciate you starting your week here at Energy Newsbeat. You will hear me and Stuart tomorrow. I will be off then Wednesday, Thursday. We hope you guys have a great week We’ll see you tomorrow! [00:17:02][0.0][1008.1]
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