Splash turns 10 today, the site covering one of shipping’s most tumultuous decades on record.
Chinese shipyards going under or restructuring and capes heading for the scrap heap dominated headlines on March 4, 2015 in what was by common consent a far easier time to be covering the shipping and offshore industries, a period where supply and demand statistics were easier to gauge and geopolitics did not weigh so heavily on the sector’s fortunes.
Tim Wilkins, the managing director of INTERTANKO, recounted: “Back in 2015, the industry’s challenges seemed more clearly defined. Issues such as security threats and reducing greenhouse gas emissions were distinct focus areas with well-outlined solutions.”
Wilkins went on to discuss how the “complexity” and sheer volume of challenges have grown significantly, most notably thanks to geopolitics.
“The key change is in shipping’s risk profile: 10 years ago shipping risk was all about safety, oil spills, piracy and ISPS; shipping risk today is about ESG, geopolitics and sanctions,” said Mark Williams, the founder of UK consultancy Shipping Strategy, adding: “The costs of compliance have risen fast but the costs of non-compliance have risen enormously and can even be existential.”
Michael Grey, one of the most famous editors of shipping titles over the past 50 years, commented on Splash’s anniversary: “It’s been 10 years of huge and increasing challenges to be faced, arising from the green agenda – right or wrong – peak globalisation now facing its own existential threats and growing political instability.”
The news cycle – and by extension shipping cycles – have accelerated and shortened since Splash was created, a viewpoint picked up by Andy Dacy, managing director of the global transportation group at JP Morgan Asset Management.
“Geopolitics, wars, pandemics, financial crises, and regulation have all buffeted shipping over the past 10 years. We’ve seen more of these in a shorter time span than before,” Dacy told Splash.
Discussing the past decade’s “seismic shifts” for shipping, Bjorn Hojgaard, who heads up Anglo-Eastern, the world’s largest shipmanger, said decarbonisation, digitalisation, and geopolitical changes have rewritten the rulebook.
“The industry has had to become more transparent, more accountable, and more technologically agile than ever before,” Hojgaard said.
Nick Brown, the CEO of Lloyd’s Register, conceded that global trade has been tested by an extraordinary set of challenges over the past decade, listing the likes of the pandemic, sanctions, tariffs, and war, all of which, he said exposed vulnerabilities in the supply chain and highlighted the vital yet under-recognised role of seafarers.
Fleet growth
In the past 10 years, according to Dr Martin Stopford, the world’s most famous maritime economist, the shipping fleet in dwt terms has grown by a third, and earning are up by about 40%.
After decades of slim margins, the big liner companies finally joined tankers and bulkers in what Stopford described as the “super-boom club”.
“Tankers had theirs in 1973 and bulkers in 2008, so it was a long wait. But what a lot they made,” Stopford said of the liner boom recorded in the 2020s.
Regionally, the epicentre of sea trade continued its move towards the Pacific. In 2015 Atlantic and Pacific seaborne trade – including imports and exports – were roughly the same – about 45% each. Now the Pacific is about 50%, and the Atlantic about 40%, according to data from Stopford.
China’s share of shipbuilding has jumped from 36% to 51% in the period since Splash started, but sea trade growth has slowed to 1.8% per annum, half the long-term trend of 3-4% per year.
Green transition?
Dr Roar Adland, a protege of Stopford’s who now heads up research at broker SSY, said of the period since Splash’s debut: “It was the decade when Chinese demand growth finally decelerated, geopolitical drivers came back with a vengeance and the green transition in shipping turned out to be what we all suspected – all talk and no action.”
Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, hailed shipping’s “remarkable transformation” over the past decade, driving progress, resilience, and sustainability on a global scale. Platten took issue with Adland’s take on the industry’s decarbonisation, claiming shipping is now at the forefront of the energy transition and several steps ahead of regulators.
Johannah Christensen, head of the not-for-profit Global Maritime Forum, agreed with Platten, maintaining that the industry had moved over the past 10 years from being a green laggard to a frontrunner among the hard-to-abate sector.
The workforce
Among other key changes experienced in the past 10 years has been the global sulphur cap, and the growing regulatory requirements on compliance.
Also of importance, as highlighted by Mikael Skov, who heads up Hafnia, the world’s largest product tanker owner, has been the the entrance – and exit – of private equity in shipping.
Among the greatest changes has been in the workforce – and attitudes to work.
Lena Göthberg, whose Shipping Podcast will celebrate its own 10th anniversary this July, told Splash: “10 years ago, we discussed autonomous ships and SOx. Over the last decade, we have learned about M2M, ESG, and DEI. The shipping industry is catching up with the rest of the world, we have become digitalised, greener, and are recognising the need for gender balance.”
Heidi Heseltine, founder and CEO of the Diversity Study Group, said that in relation to people and workplace culture, the biggest change has been the industry increasingly moving towards a strategic, data-driven and inclusive approach in order to attract and retain the best possible talent who can meet the challenges and opportunities presented by issues like decarbonisation, emerging technologies, and an increasing demand for data to inform strategic decision making and harnessing the benefits of AI.
Plus ça change
So just how much has shipping changed in the 10 years Splash has been covering the industry?
“Volatility, excitement, drama, politics and plenty of great characters and stories are still in the industry,” says Ed Buttery, the CEO of British shipowner Taylor Maritime. While he conceded there is a greater focus on the environment, social and corporate governance, and corporate M&A, he said: “Thankfully we remain an industry that respects tradition and embraces innovation”.
Brown, the head of LR, argued that during this time of complex challenges, the sector has reached a turning point in its energy transition, developing a broader shift towards multifuel solutions.
“The next decade will determine the shape of the industry’s long-term sustainability, demanding not just technological advancements but also greater investment in seafarers and human capital, which remain fundamental to creating the long-term change we need,” Brown said.
Concluding, Kuba Szymanski, the secretary-general of InterManager, commented: “It is difficult to believe how many of the issues that were around in 2015 are still with us and Splash has always been there for us to report on them.”
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