To be a dry bulk analyst for most of the past three decades has in effect meant being a China watcher. Similarly, being a shipping reporter in the 2020s increasingly equates to being a very close follower of geopolitics.
This year has been hugely turbulent for the world, and its trading routes, and yet shipping has managed to roll with the punches and profited as is often the case when a period of disruption ensues.
The ClarkSea Index, a weighted barometer of all the shipping sectors managed by Clarksons Research, is ending the year on a comparative whimper at $22,509 a day, the lowest level for more than a year, though the average in 2024 so far is up 7% year-on-year and up 31% on the 10-year trend.
The Red Sea shipping crisis, the Panama Canal drought, the war in Ukraine, and the rise of the so-called shadow fleet have been story arcs that have kept Splash reporters up late at night throughout the year while ensuring highly profitable returns for many shipping sectors.
The world is breaking apart as today’s top superpowers vie for mastery in every continent.
For shipping, the servants of global trade, as Donald Trump prepares to reenter the White House, what this means is simply cargoes will move in different ways but ultimately they will end up in the hands of the end consumer.
However, this creates greater fragmentation for a world fleet that today is already struggling, having been built for a totally optimised trade.
Fragmentation requires more ships to transport the same volume of cargo, and yet we are in a situation where the world’s top shipbuilders – arguably one of the real winners across shipping in 2024 – are increasingly full up through to 2028, and ships are having to be pressed into action for longer than before.
Splash will continue to bring readers the big picture of how all this fractious activity is affecting each shipping segment. This past year has been a big one for my team and I. Visitors to this site, which turns 10 next March, are up by a gratifying 38% year-on-year, while 2024 also saw the launch of Geneva Dry, a commodities event now firmly on track to welcome 800+ delegates when it reconvenes next April.
Today is the last edition of Daily Splash, our free newsletter, through to January 6. The site will continue to be uploaded during the festive season with all the key events shaping the shipping and offshore sectors. And with that, I am going to shut this overworked, wheezing laptop down and leave the last word to our cartoonist, The Freaky Wave.
Energy News Beat