Russia’s gas giant Gazprom is set to rake in 85% higher revenues this year, to around $100 billion, as natural gas prices surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the significant cut to Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe, an analyst told the Financial Times on Friday.
By choking supply to Europe, Gazprom has driven natural gas prices three times higher than last year’s price, which more than offsets the lower volumes Russia is sending to Europe, Ron Smith, an oil and gas analyst at BCS Global Markets, told FT.
“You can make a solid case that Gazprom will earn more from supplying less gas,” according to the analyst.
After having gradually cut flows via the key route to Germany all summer, blaming gas turbine repair issues, Gazprom said last week that the Nord Stream gas pipeline would remain closed indefinitely. The Kremlin blamed on Monday the Western sanctions for this situation.
“When it went offline on 31 August, Nord Stream 1’s 32mcm/day flows represented about 3% of total European supply. While a small amount, these molecules will need to be replaced by much more expensive methods – either drawing additional LNG from the global market or by destroying demand in Europe,” Thomas Rodgers, gas markets analyst at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), said on the day on which Gazprom said Nord Stream would halt supply indefinitely.
As of September 2, remaining Russian flows to Europe accounted for about 7% of European supply, including LNG sendout, compared to more than a third of all supply to Europe coming from Russia at this time last year, ICIS notes.
The EU is looking to limit Putin’s revenues from gas, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday the Commission would propose a price cap on Russian gas as “We must cut Russia’s revenues which Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.”
Also on Wednesday, Vladimir Putin threatened the West that Russia would stop supplying all energy products to Europe if the EU and its Western allies impose price caps on Russian oil and natural gas.
Several EU member states are opposed to the Commission’s plan on a price cap on Russian gas amid concerns that Putin would retaliate with a complete halt of all pipeline gas deliveries to Europe.