Marathon Petroleum Q1 down on earnings due to weak refining margins

• Adjusted EPS: MPC reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.24, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.54, indicating a positive earnings surprise. This compares to an adjusted EPS of $2.78 in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline.
• Revenue: Total revenue reached $31.85 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $30.67 billion but down from $33.37 billion in Q1 2024.
• Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) was $2.0 billion, down from $3.3 billion in Q1 2024, driven by weaker refining margins and heavy maintenance costs.
• Net Cash from Operations: Net cash provided by operating activities was not explicitly detailed for Q1 2025 in the provided sources, but the company highlighted strong cash flow generation in prior quarters (e.g., $8.7 billion for full-year 2024).
• Capital Returns: MPC returned capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, though specific Q1 2025 figures were not provided. In 2024, the company returned $10.2 billion, including $1.6 billion in Q4 2024.

1. Refining & Marketing:
   • Refining Margins: Refining margins dropped significantly to $13.38 per barrel from $19.35 per barrel year-over-year, a key driver of the quarterly loss.
   • Utilization and Throughput: Refineries operated at 89% of combined capacity, with crude runs averaging 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), impacted by significant planned turnaround activity, particularly in the Gulf Coast region.
   • Operational Challenges: The segment faced headwinds from heavy maintenance and lower margins, contributing to the overall net loss. However, MPC completed significant planned maintenance, positioning it for higher throughput in Q2 2025.
2. Midstream (MPLX):
   • Adjusted EBITDA: The Midstream segment delivered strong results, with adjusted EBITDA contributing significantly to the company’s $2.0 billion total adjusted EBITDA.
   • Operational Strength: Higher rates and volumes of liquids transported through pipelines bolstered performance, offsetting refining weaknesses. MPLX’s cash flow durability supported a 12.5% quarterly distribution increase in Q3 2024, with annualized distributions to MPC expected at $2.5 billion.
   • Strategic Moves: MPLX progressed growth projects, including the BANGL pipeline expansion (increasing capacity to 250,000 bpd, expected completion in Q1 2025) and the Blackcomb and Rio Bravo natural gas pipelines (anticipated in-service in H2 2026).
3. Renewable Diesel:
   • Established as a separate segment in Q4 2024, Renewable Diesel includes activities previously reported under Refining & Marketing. Specific Q1 2025 performance metrics for this segment were not detailed, but its creation aims to enhance comparability with peers and reflects MPC’s focus on renewable fuels.

• Maintenance Completion: MPC successfully completed its largest planned maintenance quarter, including turnarounds at four of its largest refineries, which impacted Q1 utilization but sets the stage for improved Q2 performance.
• Share Repurchase Program: MPC continued its aggressive capital return strategy, with $7.8 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of year-end 2024. Since May 2021, MPC has reduced its share count by over 50%.
• Dividend Stability: The board declared a dividend of $0.91 per share for Q3 2024, with no changes reported for Q1 2025, signaling confidence in cash flow generation.

• Q2 2025 Outlook:
  • MPC projects Q2 total throughput of 2,945 million barrels per day, reflecting improved refinery utilization post-maintenance.
  • The company anticipates improved refining margins driven by summer demand.
• 2025 Capital Spending: MPC outlined a $1.25 billion standalone capital outlook for 2025, focusing on high-return projects at its Los Angeles, Galveston Bay, and Robinson refineries. These investments target a 20% return to enhance competitiveness and efficiency.
• MPLX Contributions: Expected distributions from MPLX in 2025 are projected to cover MPC’s dividends and the $1.25 billion capital outlook, supporting continued capital returns to shareholders.
• Market Expectations: Analysts expect margins to improve in the second half of 2025 as refinery closures offset recent capacity additions, potentially boosting profitability.

• Challenging Environment: The refining sector faced pressure from weaker margins due to new capacity additions and normalizing market conditions post-2022 highs driven by supply shortages.
• Midstream Resilience: MPC’s Midstream segment, via MPLX, has been a consistent bright spot, with 6% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth in 2024, driven by higher volumes and strategic acquisitions like the BANGL pipeline stake.
• Renewable Focus: The establishment of the Renewable Diesel segment aligns with industry trends toward sustainable fuels, though its financial impact in Q1 2025 remains unclear.
• Shareholder Value: MPC’s peer-leading capital return ($10.2 billion in 2024) underscores its commitment to shareholders, though ongoing market dynamics and environmental regulations pose challenges to traditional refining operations.

• Earnings Surprise: MPC’s Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of -$0.24 beat expectations, continuing a trend of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in the last four quarters.
• Stock Performance: Shares rose 0.47% to $144.01 on May 6, 2025, following the earnings release, reflecting positive market reaction to the earnings beat.
• Analyst Ratings: The estimate revisions trend was unfavorable pre-earnings, with a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) due to expected underperformance. Post-earnings, revisions could shift, with consensus EPS estimates at $0.72 for Q2 2025 and $9.48 for the full year on revenues of $31.51 billion and $134.66 billion, respectively.
• Investment Ratings: Analysts maintain a “Hold” rating with target prices ranging from $124 to $138, citing medium industry, management, and safety subratings but a high value subrating.

• Refining Margin Pressure: The significant drop in refining margins was the primary driver of the Q1 loss, highlighting MPC’s vulnerability to market volatility. The anticipated margin recovery in H2 2025 will be critical.
• Maintenance Impact: While maintenance weighed on Q1 utilization, its completion positions MPC for stronger operational performance in Q2, with projected throughput increases signaling confidence.
• Midstream Strength: MPLX’s consistent growth and strategic expansions (e.g., BANGL, Blackcomb pipelines) provide a stable cash flow base, mitigating refining segment weaknesses.
• Renewable Diesel Potential: The new segment’s long-term impact is uncertain but aligns with regulatory and market shifts toward renewables, potentially diversifying revenue streams.
• Capital Discipline: MPC’s focus on high-return projects and shareholder returns reflects prudent capital allocation, though balancing investments with market challenges will be key.

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