Iranian crude oil flows to China have rebounded this month after a U.S. crackdown on shipments launched in late 2024 decimated them in January. In a last-minute push to sanction Iran, the Biden admin blacklisted a number of tankers, trading entities, and shipping companies as participants in sanctioned oil trade.
The February average of Iranian oil exports to its biggest buyer is set to average 1.74 million barrels daily, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The figure is an 86% increase from January flows.
The boost in shipments was enabled by the opening of new receiving terminals and more ship-to-ship transfers, the Bloomberg report noted.
The Trump administration has threatened to return to the maximum pressure approach of Trump’s first term in a bid to force Iran to give u developing a nuclear weapon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the target is to squeeze Iranian oil exports to a tenth of their current levels.
Kpler said in a recent analysis that the return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran on the part of Washington was likely to weaken oil exports to China, at least for a while. “Some buyers, particularly larger Chinese privately owned refiners, are likely to steer clear of such dealings as a precaution in the near term,” due to higher prices resulting from workarounds to avoid U.S. sanctions, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi wrote.
China’s private oil refiners, the so-called teapots, are key buyers of Iran’s sanctioned crude, and the two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. However, the tougher U.S. squeeze on Iran’s oil industry will inevitably lift prices, which would affect buying decisions, as noted by Kpler.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
History of Iran Oil Shipments from Grok on X:
Based on available data up to February 19, 2025, Iran’s oil export figures for the full year of 2024 are not yet comprehensively finalized, as official annual totals are typically compiled after the year ends. However, I can provide an overview using the most recent and detailed estimates from 2024 available in the sources.
Iran’s crude oil and gas condensate exports reportedly surged to a five-year high in 2024. According to oil analytics firm Vortexa, Iran exported an average of 1.65 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the first five months of 2024 (January to May). If this rate were sustained throughout the year, it would equate to approximately 602.25 million barrels over 365 days (1.65 million b/d × 365 days).
However, export volumes can fluctuate monthly due to sanctions, market demand, and logistical factors, so this is an extrapolation rather than a confirmed total.
In terms of revenue, Iran’s customs statistics reported $12 billion in oil revenues for the first three months of the Iranian fiscal year (March 21 to June 20, 2024), a 34.8% increase year-on-year. Additionally, Iran announced oil exports worth $15.7 billion between March 21 and July 22, 2024, according to the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration. Another source indicates $35.8 billion in oil exports for the 12 months ending March 19, 2024, but this includes part of 2023. Assuming a consistent export pace and accounting for reported growth, estimates suggest Iran’s oil export revenue for the calendar year 2024 could range between $40 billion and $53 billion, with the higher end aligning with the U.S. Energy Information Agency’s estimate of $53 billion in net oil export revenues for 2023, adjusted for 2024’s reported increases.
For a more precise volume figure, Kpler data cited exports at 1.5 mb/d in the first quarter (January to March) of 2024, totaling about 141.7 million barrels for that period (1.5 million b/d × 90 days = 135 million barrels, adjusted slightly higher by some reports). If this pace continued, annual exports could reach around 547.5 million barrels (1.5 million b/d × 365 days), though peaks like 1.82 mb/d in March suggest potential for higher totals if sustained.
Given the variability and lack of a full-year official figure as of February 19, 2025, Iran’s 2024 oil exports likely fall between 547.5 million and 602.25 million barrels, with revenues estimated at $40 billion to $53 billion, depending on monthly fluctuations and oil prices (which averaged around $78-$80 per barrel for Brent in 2024, with Iran selling at a discount). These numbers reflect trends of increased exports despite U.S. sanctions, largely driven by demand from China.
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