The two leaders’ bonhomie will continue if the Indian prime minister makes accommodations on trade and illegal immigration.
On the campaign trail last year, U.S. President Donald Trump referred to India as a “big abuser” of trade ties, despite the bonhomie that he seemed to enjoy with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first term. So it’s hardly surprising that in his first phone call with Modi since returning to office, Trump brought up the issue of the U.S. trade deficit with India, which stands at around $32 billion. When asked by a reporter about undocumented Indian immigrants in the United States, Trump said that Modi agreed to do “what is right.”
Though the White House characterized the phone call as “productive,” the only positive note that emerged from the readout was that Trump invited Modi to Washington. The Indian leader will meet with Trump at the White House next week.
There, Modi will almost certainly make some concessions on two vexed issues: trade and illegal immigration. India already said it would overhaul its tariff regime last week. Modi might announce additional weapons purchases from the United States while in Washington, mostly to appease Trump, who has pushed for increased weapons sales. (Trump, in turn, could push Modi to ascertain where New Delhi stands on Beijing’s growing assertiveness across Asia.)
Cooperation on illegal immigration could come up at next week’s meeting, too. On his own recent visit to Washington, Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar signaled willingness to accept the return of Indian deportees from the United States. A deportation flight from the United States with at least 100 people on board landed in India on Feb. 5; reports that deportees were mistreated drew criticism within India ahead of Modi’s trip.
Trade with the United States and immigration are already on the minds of many Indians. Immigration especially has taken on added significance; a substantial number of Indian undocumented immigrants who arrive in the United States hail from Modi’s home state of Gujarat. Despite growing prosperity in the state, wealth is largely concentrated in the hands of a few. Facing high unemployment, many young people rely on dubious means to enter the United States in search of a better life.
Both issues came up during Trump’s first term, but the two sides managed to contain them without much public acrimony. Modi and Trump enjoyed highly publicized visits to each other’s countries accompanied by much fanfare. Neither visit, however, concluded in major material accomplishments.
Still, cooperation in other areas proceeded apace under the first Trump administration. India and the United States reached a significant number of defense deals, mostly stemming from a single and largely unstated source: a shared belief that China increasingly constitutes a threat to both countries’ strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. At least three different bilateral defense cooperation agreements, which had been under discussion for some time, all came to fruition in Trump’s first term.
After former U.S. President Joe Biden assumed office in 2020, he was slow in getting off the blocks with India, even though the relationship enjoyed bipartisan support. Among other matters, it took more than two years for the Biden administration to appoint an ambassador to India, to New Delhi’s considerable dismay. Admittedly, Republican foot-dragging in the Senate stymied the process, but the absence of an ambassador on the ground exacted a price on the relationship.
Last year, the U.S. Justice Department charged an Indian national in a failed assassination plot against a Sikh separatist in New York; the indictment attributed the plan to high officials in New Delhi. Though the Biden administration handled the case with discretion and professionalism, it nonetheless took a toll on the bilateral relationship. Unless India authorizes another such feckless venture, the Trump administration is likely to set aside this episode and not dwell on it.
The Biden administration managed to regain some lost ground with India in its waning days. Among other matters, it signed an important technology agreement, the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), to promote economic and technological cooperation. Given Trump’s tendency to not give any credit to the prior administration, he might continue this program under a different name.
As Trump settles into office, the U.S.-India relationship is on more secure footing than it has been in decades, despite his approach to both tariffs and illegal immigration. This is largely because—with a few exceptions—bilateral ties with India remain a bipartisan issue, even with political polarization in the United States. Administrations of very different persuasions have worked to bolster the U.S.-India strategic partnership.
On the Indian side, it is widely believed that Jaishankar is an advocate for better U.S.-India ties. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first meeting with a foreign dignitary was with Jaishankar. Afterward, the Indian official said that he was optimistic about the partnership’s future. While he was in the Senate, Rubio introduced a bill that would place India on par with several U.S. allies for defense cooperation; it didn’t make it through Congress, but the bill’s underlying intent is an important clue to the significance that the new secretary of state attaches to India.
Despite New Delhi and Washington’s institutional links in the security realm, an expansion in trade, and the high-level diplomatic ties that have developed in the last few decades, the bilateral relationship could still encounter troubled waters. Trump, as is his wont, can set aside all these factors, disregard professional advice, and even dispense with personal rapport with another world leader if he is convinced that any of his key concerns are not being addressed.
Given the sheer importance that Trump has attached to trade imbalances and his idée fixe with illegal (and even legal) immigration, the political leadership in New Delhi will have to hone all the diplomatic skills at its command to deal with the mercurial preferences of the U.S. president as he settles into his second term.
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