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This article was originally published by CalMatters.
At New Century Motorcycles in Alhambra, a handful of electric motorcycles are relegated to the back of the store, tucked behind the dirt bikes. The store sells one a month, at most, a salesperson said.
Motorcyclists have long loved their noisy, gas-powered machines that allow them to ride long distances on highways and remote roads with few fueling stops.
Now, in a nationwide first, California is planning new rules that ramp up sales of zero-emission motorcycles in its quest to clean the air and battle climate-warming gasses.
The regulations would impose a credit system for manufacturers so that 10% of motorcycles sold in California would be zero-emissions in 2028 and 50% in 2035, according to the state Air Resources Board. At the same time, a tighter standard for new gas-powered motorcycles would ratchet down their emissions for the first time in more than 25 years.
Under the proposed rules, more than 280,000 new electric or hydrogen motorcycles would be sold in California by 2045 — about eight times more than the total on its roads now. Electric motorcycles make up only 1% of current motorcycle sales.
The state Air Resources Board will vote on the proposed rules on Nov. 7 after a public hearing.
Motorcycles are more often used for recreation than for daily commutes, and they collectively emit far less pollution than gasoline-powered cars and diesel trucks. But a mile driven in a gas-powered motorcycle emits far more pollutants than a mile in a new gas-powered car — for the reactive gases that form smog, it’s a whopping 20 times more per mile, according to the air board.
In a state with the worst smog in the nation and unsafe levels of dangerous fine particles, air-quality officials say no source can be left unregulated: All vehicles powered by fossil fuels need to be cleaned up and transitioned to zero-emissions.
State officials hope more motorcyclists will be interested in the benefits that battery-powered motorcycles have to offer: low fueling costs and less maintenance.
But many motorcyclists point out California’s inadequate network of public charging stations and the limited range of electric models that are unsuitable for long-distance rides. They worry that the rule will limit the bikes they can choose in the future. Others say it could fill an untapped market for urban motorcyclists interested in fast bikes for short commutes.
“There is no infrastructure for electric vehicles,” Michael DiPiero of the American Brotherhood Aimed Towards Education of California, which represents motorcyclists, said in written comments to the air board. “We cannot support the needs we currently have for electricity as it is.”
Rob Smith, a motorcyclist from Santa Monica, owns an electric car and considers himself an environmentalist. But he’s not ready to switch to electric motorcycles — and he doesn’t think most motorcyclists are, either. They’re expensive, silent and have top ranges of about 100 miles.
“I do think it’s the future, I just don’t know about that timeline,” Smith said of the Air Resources Board’s proposal. “This is going to just hit a niche. Can you get to 50% with just that niche?”
Harley Davidson and the Motorcycle Industry Council, a group that represents manufacturers, didn’t respond to a request for comment about the proposed rules.
State officials said the regulation strikes a balance by moving toward electrification of motorcycles and catching up with European standards for gas-powered motorcycles yet still allowing California consumers to have a range of choices.
“We realized we couldn’t push to 100% because there will probably be some circumstances where zero-emission motorcycles won’t have access to infrastructure to plug up their bikes,” said Annette Hèbert, the air board’s deputy executive officer who oversees mobile source rules at its Southern California office.
Motorcycles make up less than half of 1% all vehicle miles traveled in California. But even though they’re a “very small part of the state’s overall transportation sector,” they contribute an “outsized portion of smog-forming pollutants,” air board officials said.
“Motorcycles (emissions) may look small when taken by themselves, but when you consider the additive effect to all those other small sources together, you can see why we’ve got to hit every little piece,” Hèbert said.
If California is to finally have healthy air as well as make progress in combating climate change, “we need to have this paradigm shift, because that’s the only way we’re going to get there,” she said.
Californians breathe some of the nation’s unhealthiest air and vehicles account for the majority of that pollution. The Los Angeles basin has for decades topped the list of cities with the worst ozone, a key ingredient of smog, according to the American Lung Association. Ozone and particle pollution can trigger asthma and heart attacks, as well as other diseases.
The motorcycle regulation would lead to an estimated $649 million in savings from reduced mortality and avoided hospitalizations and illnesses associated with motorcycle emissions, according to the Air Resources Board.
By 2045, the rules are expected to eliminate about 20,000 tons of reactive gases and nitrogen oxides that form smog, and 33 tons of fine particulate matter. That would be about half of the emissions from all California motorcycles.
California is proposing a tiered credit system for manufacturers. Companies that produce high speed, freeway-capable motorcycles with large battery capacities — those that typically produce the most emissions — will get the most credits. Low-speed bikes with low range will get the least.
Companies comply with the rule by producing zero-emission motorcycles for credits or trading their credits with other companies. A manufacturer, for instance, could comply with its 50% target by making and selling 25% electric motorcycles and then purchasing credits for the remaining 25% from an all-electric motorcycle company. Manufacturers would also get bonus credits for producing and selling zero-emission bikes before 2029.
Additionally, starting with 2029 models,the regulation will require new gas-powered motorcycles to follow more stringent European Union standards for exhaust emissions and use better on-board engine diagnostic equipment to detect faults in their emissions systems.
Several manufacturers, including Harley Davison, Ducati and Kawasaki, already make electric bikes, and some companies, like Zero and Verge, build exclusively electric bikes.Energica, an electric bike startup, recently filed for bankruptcy due to increased costs and supply issues.
An electric motorcycle purchased in 2020 cost on average $5,365 more than a gas-powered one. State officials estimated an electric bike would save $215 annually in fuel and maintenance costs.
State officials said electric motorcycles may also appeal to low income motorcyclists who live in apartments and find charging an electric car near their residence more difficult. Less expensive electric motorcycles may be small enough to take inside apartments to charge or come with removable batteries that can be charged overnight.
But officials stressed that the regulation’s intent isn’t to convert car drivers to motorcyclists. Instead, it’s an added option for motorcyclists looking for a more cost effective mode of transportation.
Are electric motorcycles ready for prime time?
At a Harley Davidson dealer in Marina Del Rey, Live Wire brand electric motorcycles are visible as soon as customers enter the showroom. The dealer sells two or three electric Live Wire motorcycles monthly, said Justin Fraiser, a sales representative at the dealer.
“There are a lot of people in the Harley world stuck on combustion engines,” Fraiser said. But he’s not one of them. “It’s the evolution of things. Eventually, it’s gonna happen.”
Smith, the motorcyclist from Santa Monica, said he thinks electric motorcycles are the future, but they’re not quite ready for “prime time.”
Smith said California has been a leader in climate solutions “for good reason.” He said he cares about reducing emissions and protecting the environment. He is a partner in a venture capital firm that invests in startups that make electric bikes.
But he prefers his “loud and obnoxious” Ducati motorcycle for its better range (up to 200 miles) and for safety reasons — car drivers can hear him coming behind them.
Smith said the state should focus on cutting emissions from new motorcycles with internal combustion engines and was pleased to hear that was part of the regulation.
Karen Butterfield, a motorcyclist from San Diego, agreed that, for her, an electric motorcycle won’t work.
She’s a member of the Southern California Motorcycling Association, which gathers for long-distance trips, from Mexico to Canada and throughout the U.S. They ride for hundreds of miles without stopping, something that an electric one couldn’t do with existing charging network problems.
But she said there’s a massive untapped market in young riders because she thinks electric motorcycles are generally easier to use.
“I think it’s a good thing for motorcycling in the sense that a smaller electric bike would help people get into motorcycling,” she said. “The generations that are coming seem to be more environmentally conscious too, which is a good thing. I think there’s a market there, they just need to find it.”
Adrian Martinez, an attorney for climate advocate Earthjustice, said the organization supports the proposal, but called it conservative. The group was pushing for 100% electric motorcycles in a similar timeline.
“California has such dramatic air pollution problems that we’ve realized that we aren’t in a position to pick and choose,” Martinez said. “We basically need to get to zero emissions everywhere feasible.”
But some motorcyclists believe that mandating electric motorcycle technology isn’t necessary for a vehicle that produces relatively small emissions compared to other vehicles. People ride motorcycles as a hobby, to socialize with other motorcyclists and ride in the mountains or other remote areas.
Some people ride motorcycles as their main form of transportation, and electric motorcycles may appeal to those folks, but it’s a small percentage, said Chris Real, president of DPS Technical, a technical services company for motorcyclists.
Real said he thinks the regulation “won’t move the needle at all” in reducing emissions because most motorcyclists don’t put many miles on their bikes.
“Some consumers will adopt it, and some consumers won’t,” he said. “So very regional consumers, urban consumers that only ride you 20 or 30 miles, it won’t impact them at all. But for somebody that has to make a 100 mile commute or something, that’s not going to be viable.”
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