IEA Predicts Gas Shortage in 2025

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025, edition of the Daily Energy News. Beat Stand Up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, IEA says global gas market set to remain tight in 2025. We’ll stick on that natural gas LNG theme. Trump lifts pause on non FTA LNG export approvals. We knew it was coming. And finally in the new segment will quickly touch on Saudi Arabia issues. BRICs Membership Update. Ooh, spicy. Spicy. Spicy. I will then quickly cover everything that happened in the oil and gas markets today and let you guys get out of here. Stu is out on assignment, so I am filling in and rocking a solo show today. [00:00:54][43.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:54] Let’s go and kick it off. All right. IEA says global gas market set to remain tight in 2025. I mean, this is super interesting. This is specifically focused on natural gas, which, again, you know, if you’re concerned about what’s going on in oil, it looks like supply might quite outpace demand. What they’re saying on the oil side is the demand may not be there, but we’re just focused specifically on natural gas. The IEA does these kind of quarterly gas market updates. Their quote was that the markets have, quote, moved towards a gradual rebalancing last year after the supply shock that followed the Russia full scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Again, pointing out that this report is talking about global natural gas markets, not necessarily the U.S. gas markets, which do remain slightly overbalance from the standpoint of we’ve got a lot of natural gas sitting on the sidelines being flared. We’re talking specifically about the global gas balance. So basically the IEA is talking about that. You know, they the reason why they’re saying it’s tightened a little bit, aka that the supply is now getting back in balance with demand is mainly due to Asia. You know, in terms of from again, from the demand side, Asia’s you know, their demand, their global gas demand rose by about 2.8 percentage points or about 150,000,000,000m³ in 2024, which was above the 2% growth rate that they saw somewhere between 2010 and 2020. We also saw below average growth in liquid LNG output, which really kept supply tight. And there was a bunch of kind of wild weather events that happened. You know, this report is basically saying that the similar dynamics are expected to persist in 2025 as this new export capacity gets going. A lot of that’s coming from the U.S., which we’ll cover in the next segment. But also Qatar is coming online both over the course of next year and the second half of the decade. They also note that geopolitical tensions have kind of continued to kind of push volatility in gas markets There, though, the halt of the Russian piped gas transit via Ukraine on January 1st, 2025, does not pose an immediate security risk for the European Union. It could increase European LNG import requirements and further tighten global market fundamentals in 2025. We know what’s going on with Moldova and all that stuff. The quote from the IEA’s director of energy market and security. I’m going to butcher this name. Kosuke. Some Midori gas market fundamentals have improved over the past year, but for now we are still seeing significant tightness due to rising demand and muted growth in LNG capacity. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty adds to the risk. He goes on to say While international cooperation on gas supply security has expanded since the region energy crisis began, greater efforts are needed from responsible producers and consumers who should strengthen their collective efforts to reinforce architecture for safe and secure global gas supplies. So, you know, global gas markets are going to continue to stay tight. And what that does is that bleeds over into. [00:03:41][166.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:41] This next one I want to talk about, which is Trump First, a full day in office. Trump lifts pause on not FDA LNG export approvals. This was via an executive order which was widely expected to basically get our LNG export terminals going, specifically according to the order of the Energy Secretary. Great friend of the show, Chris Wright, is directed to restart reviews of applications for approvals of LNG projects, quote, expeditiously as possible, consistent with applicable law. The order goes on to say, quote, In assessing the public interest to be advanced in any particular application, the Secretary of Energy shall consider the economic and employment impacts to the United States an impact of security of to its allies and partners that would result from granting the application. They’re also going to look at the Alaskan LNG potential, which which includes all the permitting and infrastructure to get pipelines and all that done. You know, and this why this bleeds into what the IEA is talking about is the U.S. has an ability to help wean Europe off its Russia supply, which means the security risk that everybody’s scared about Russia. You can get off Russian gas and bring yourself more energy security If the United States would get its act together and we would start building these things. And that’s exactly what Trump and Chris wright. Are going to be doing. It’s great that we have them in office. We remember that in January of 2024, the Biden administration paused pending decision on exports of LNG to non-EU countries until the Doe can update its underlying analysis for authorizations. Basically, they released a report last month. But he didn’t really say anything. There are several projects that will benefit from this. These include Cambridge’s Commonwealth LNG project in Cameron, Louisiana, and Venture Global’s LNG seed P2 project in Louisiana. Also, the Sabine Pass Stage five expansion by Cheniere Energy and Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG export Patel facility and Sempra. Their Port Arthur LNG export will also benefit. Lots of great benefits of here in the LNG space. Good for you. [00:05:37][116.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:38] Let’s move over now. Saudi Arabia issues BRICs Membership update. You know, this just comes down to Saudi Arabia. Being probably up there with the United States is the only other country that can move. Global markets, they are still without any potential membership of BRICs, according to the Minister of Economy and Planning, Faisal al Ibrahim. He told Bloomberg in an interview on Monday. Remember, the initial block was established in 29 by Brazil, Russia, India, China with South Africa joining. Two years later, they’ve also been admitted Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE to become full members in 2024. And Indonesia has just joined in 2025. Quoting the Saudi economy minister, we’ve been invited to BRICs, similar how we have been invited to many other multilateral platforms in past. Historically, we assess many different aspects of our decision is made and right now we are in the middle of that. He emphasized that they are always focused on fostering more global dialog. This is going to be interesting because this could shift the balance of power from OPEC to BRICs to becoming the, you know, people are going to start watching the BRICs meetings more. They’re going to watch the OPEC meetings when it comes to what’s going to happen with global supply and demand. You’re also talking about, you know, obviously Russia is also in BRICs and in OPEC, but China is also in BRICs and not in OPEC, which is probably outside of the United States. The other big player in kind of this global energy economy. And it’ll be very interesting to see how this plays out. If Saudi joins it’s it’s kind of a shift of power, in my opinion, from OPEC to BRICs. We will be following this closely. [00:07:05][87.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:06] Let’s go ahead and jump over to finance, guys. But before we do that, let’s quickly pay the bills. As always, thank you for checking us out. World’s greatest website www.energy news beat.com Stu in the team do a tremendous job making sure you stay up to speed and that site stays up to speed with everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit that description below for all links at the timestamped links to the articles. If you want to subscribe to us via substack, that’s a great way to support the show. Go ahead and logging. We’ve got a bunch of great paid content coming for you. That’s the energynewsbeat.substack.com. Also check us out the deal spotlight. I haven’t talked about that in a bit, but that’s my M&A podcast that I do. Just after wrapped up a great, great interview with Sovereign Capital President. Eric Right. A great friend of the show. He also has a tremendous podcast. I highly recommend checking it out him now it’s called The Rice Report. You could find him on YouTube, but we rack up a great, great oil and gas Bitcoin mining deal that actually he’s co-sponsoring right now. So it’s an awesome opportunity to learn a little bit about an active fund. As always, if you do want to invest in oil and gas, guys investinoil.energy news beat.com we can get you all the details on what it looks like as an investor and how you might be able to profit from that. You can also, again, if you want to become Billy Bob Thornton from Landman, investing in oil and gas is a great way to go ahead and check us out again. Invest in oil that energynews beat.com and we will get you all the information. [00:08:24][78.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:25] Let’s quickly run over some you know, markets I could get back to you the stock is on the floor in this market so up till about from about 710 to any point in the S&P 500, Nasdaq basically the same two and ten year yield flat, ten year yield down to 47 point a Bitcoin up just over $106,000. Absolutely. Ripping crude oil, not a great day was down about 1.8 percentage point 7589. Brant oil was actually up about 2/10 of a percentage point 7932. Natural gas down about 4.5 percentage points, $0.17 to $3.76 ex op, which our AMP contract was down slightly less than oil, about one percentage points more about 150 off its index. Again, Trump is basically one of the reason why oil is down is that on day one of the Trump administration, he declared a national energy emergency, which kind of has raised concerns in the U.S. over what U.S. output would do in terms of, you know, which is obviously if you’re expecting an oversupply, well, then all of a sudden, if now you’re an energy emergency, we need to hurry up and get all this energy done. Well, prices are going to fall again. We’ve talked about this ad nauseum, how much that will impact, I don’t actually know. He does call for higher oil output. The question is, where’s that going to come from? He’s currently considering 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which will be interesting. That will definitely drive the cost of goods up and will drive the price of energy up as we import a lot of Canadian oil. He said that, quote, We will probably stop buying Venezuelan oil. I think emphasis on the word probably. You know, it is it’s kind of funny, the word probably. EIA economists on Tuesday reiterated that their expectations for oil prices are to decline both this year and next. Their quote is strong global growth and production of petroleum, other liquids and slower demand growth put downward pressure on. Prices. So obviously I think people are doing that. And as we mentioned at the top of this segment, you know, that is limiting the amount of oil we’ll buy from there as well. It’s not going to do much, but, you know, I think it’s there. [00:10:20][115.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:21] All that goes to show guys markets are still are still hanging in there and it’s one. But this was a short show today with with still being out. So I’m just going to go and jump let you guys get back to work and start your day. Appreciate everybody checking it out here on the world’s greatest podcast www.energynewbeat.com for Stuart Turley I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see them on the. [00:10:21][0.0][608.1]

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