How to manage uncertainty

Mykhailo Kravchenko, head of fleet service and transhipment commercial operations at Kernel, reflects on key takeaways from last week’s Geneva Dry summit. 

Geneva Dry 2025 brought together some of the most experienced players in dry bulk shipping — traders, shipowners, operators, and analysts — to discuss the current market and what lies ahead. The level of conversation was top-notch, and what made it truly valuable was the openness of participants and the diversity of views.

The main theme? Uncertainty — not in a negative sense, but as a realistic recognition of a fast-changing, adapting, and resilient market. Here are some of the key points.

Grain trade remains strong — but routes are shifting

Demand is still high, but trade flows are changing. South America (especially Argentina and Brazil) is coming back with strong crops — and likely more congestion. China remains the key driver of demand, and its policy decisions will be crucial in the next season.

Congestion is back — and that’s (maybe) good news for freight

After two quieter years, congestion is rising again, especially in South American ports. For shipowners, this could be positive: more delays mean more ton-miles, tighter vessel availability, and potentially stronger rates.

Trade is learning to live with new risks

Tariffs, shifting alliances, and supply chain rewiring are becoming the new normal. Flexibility — in geography, operations, and commercial strategy — is now essential. Old routines no longer work. If you can’t adapt fast, you fall behind.

An ageing fleet is becoming a serious issue

Nearly 50% of the global dry bulk fleet is over 15 years old. Newbuilding slots are almost fully booked, and investors are hesitant due to uncertainty around fuels and emissions rules. This could reduce fleet supply going forward.

Spot is the new standard

Chartering is becoming more short-term. Most deals are made on the go. This increases volatility but also opens new opportunities for those who know the cargo flows well and can act fast.

Capesize segment remains solid

Despite seasonal softness, capesize vessels are holding up well. Trade from Brazil and West Africa stays firm, and long-haul voyages support tonnage demand. Regulations and efficiency benefits also give larger vessels an edge.

Geneva Dry 2025 was a reminder of how fast shipping is changing — and how important it is to stay alert to market signals.

For smaller shipowners, especially from Ukraine, these insights are very relevant. Despite all the challenges, we are an important part of the global agri supply chain. Despite all the challenges of war Ukraine remains a strong pilar of the global food security. Understanding trends helps us build stronger, more resilient logistics — not just for today, but for the years ahead. 

Events like Geneva Dry are a platform for real dialogue, experience-sharing, and future thinking.