As the week comes to an end there’s signs that the dry bulk markets – led by capes – are picking up finally. Will this mini-revival be sustainable all the way through to the end of April when Geneva Dry, the global dry bulk summit, returns for its second edition?
Alexis Ellender, the lead analyst covering dry bulk for Kpler, reckons a seasonal improvement in cargo availability should have supported a firming in dry bulk markets by late April.
Ellender is bullish on the outlook for Brazilian soybean exports, forecasting shipments to be up near 3% year-on-year in Q2. Higher vessel demand, plus associated port congestion, should boost panamax/kamsarmax earnings, he says.
As for cape rates, while expecting them to be firmer come the end of April, Ellender says earnings will likely be more in the region they were back in 2023, not last year.
There are downside risks to the demand outlook for geared vessels, Ellender warns. China and India are expected to import less seaborne coal this year than last, with a drop of around 60m tonnes year-on-year anticipated across the two countries combined, Kpler is forecasting.
Turning off your AIS does not make you disappear anymore
Meanwhile tariffs and trade barriers are set to slow the trade in steel products, Ellender cautions. Both of these would hit Pacific demand hardest, with Indonesia coal and Chinese steel product shipments likely to be affected.
Geneva Dry has a strong tech focus, with a big team from Kpler, one of the world’s top maritime and commodities analytics companies, due to attend Geneva Dry on April 28 and 29.
“For a long time, shipping was an industry that thrived in the shadows. Market information was guarded by those in the know and very few, if any, had a full picture of what was happening,” Ellender recounts.
Technological advances and improved data analysis tools mean this is no longer the case, he says.
“We now know what almost every vessel is doing,” he says, something that was demonstrated over the past year by the ease with which the shadow fleet of vessels linked to sanctioned countries and cargoes was identified and tracked.
“Turning off your AIS does not make you disappear anymore. We have additional data sources and analytical techniques that mean there is nowhere to hide,” he says.
Ellender will be speaking at the EVs And The Supercharging Of Dry Bulk session of April 28, an hour’s look at how electric vehicles are changing seaborne trading patterns, joining a host of charterers and shipowners on stage for a brand new panel.
Demand for aluminium for use in vehicle manufacturing is set to increase supporting further growth in West Africa-China capesize bauxite trade, Ellender reckons, while he anticipates nickel exports from Southeast Asia will remain firm in the medium term and bulk copper concentrate shipments from South America to China will continue to support Pacific round-voyage trade for geared vessels.
As for what the Kpler man is most looking forward to about the upcoming dry bulk summit, Ellender quickly replies: “Showing the dry bulk market that better data and global trade intelligence are their friends and can make money.”
Geneva Dry brings together all elements of the commodities shipping sector to host the ultimate dry bulk shipping event.
Split into sectors, panels will bring together analysts, financiers, miners, traders and shipowners to discuss where the markets are headed. Sessions include:
- Minor Bulks
- Agri-commodities
- Coal
- Iron Ore
- Decarbonisation
The full Geneva Dry agenda can be accessed here.
Geneva Dry registration, at just $780, can be accessed here.
Special Geneva Dry hotel room rates can be found here.
Companies attending Geneva Dry 2025 include: 2020 Bulkers, ABS, Aderco, Admaren, Aferrari Maritime Advisory, Affinity, Amart Shipping, Ambica Logistics, AmSpec, Anglo American, Ariston Navigation, AR Savage & Son, Arrow, Asia Shipping Media, Asiatic Lloyd Maritime, Asyad Shipping Company, AXSMarine, Bahri Dry Bulk, Balena Projects, Baltic Exchange, Banchero Costa, Beaufort Shipping, Berenberg Bank, Bery Maritime Inc., BIMCO, BIS Services, Blue Astra Maritime, Blue Visby Services, BPG Shipping Company, Braemar, BroadPeak Partners, BUDD Group, Bulk Commodity Trade, Bulk Egypt, Bureau Veritas, Burmester and Vogel, CALLS Shipping, Cambiaso Risso, Cargill, Castlewood Capital Partners, Cetus Maritime, Chinaland Shipping, Clarksons Port Services, CMA CGM, Coach Solutions, Cobelfret, COFCO International, Colfletar, Consortium Maritime Trading, Copenhagen Commercial Platform, Cross Office, CSBL, CTM, d’Amico Dry, Dataloy, DennisMathiew, Devbulk, DNV, Drydel Shipping, Dualog, Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, Eastmen Shipping Co., EBE, Eksen Chartering, Eltronic FuelTech, Enesel, Eramet, Erhardt Logistics, European Energy Exchange, Exen Global, Fednav, F.G.M. Chartering, Fleet Cleaner, G2 Ocean, GAC, GAC Services, GeoServe, Goulandris Brothers, GP Shipping, Granos Oros, Great Eastern Shipping Company, Grieg Shipbrokers, Hadley Shipping Group, Harbor Lab, Hartree Partners, Heidelberg Materials Trading, Hempel, HFW, Himalaya Shipping, HR Maritime, H. Vogemann, IFCHOR GALBRAITHS, IHB Shipping, Inchcape Shipping Services, INCOFE, Independent Ship Agents, Infospectrum, Inmarsat, INTERCARGO, Iskele Shipping, Isle of Man Ship Registry, JBG Shipping Agency, JJ Ugland, Kaizen Ship Management, KC Maritime, KGJS/BTG, Klaveness, Kpler, LA Marine, Leeway Brokers, Liengaard & Roschmann, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Lloyd’s Register, London Stock Exchange Group, Mandarin Shipping, Manta Marine Technologies, Marcura, Marex, Marfin Management, Mariner Communications, Maritime Optima, MasOceans, Med Shipping Agency, Metbulk Shipbrokers, Metbulk Shipping, Mid-Ship Group, Montfort Trading, Mulberry Shipping and Consulting, NAPA, Navis, Neptune Maritime Leasing, Norbulk Shipping, Norden, Nova Marine Carriers, Novamaxis, OBT Shipping Group, Oceanbulk Maritime, OceanWings, Orion Reederei, Overhorn Swiss, Pan Marine Group, Paratus, Petro Inspect, Plutofylax Shipping Corporation, Precious Shipping, Pyxis Logistics, Quest Group, Range Shipping, RightShip, Rustibus, RZHA, S5 Agency World, Safe Bulkers, SEA, Seaber, Seanergy Maritime Holdings, SEDNA, Seven Oceans, Seven Seas Marine Management, SGM Shipping Services, SGX Group, Siddhartha Logistics, Signal, Soki Kisen, South32, Southport Agencies, SS Rice News, SSY, Star Bulk, StoneX, SUISSENÉGOCE, SwissMarine, Taylor Maritime Investments, TCC Group, Team Fuel Corp, TheOceann.ai, Thurlestone Shipping, TMA Bulk, Tradeviews, Trafigura, Triton Bulk, Two Oceans, United Maritime Corporation, Universal Shipping, Vale, Valiant Shipping, Veson Nautical, V.Group, VPS, Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, WBL Shipping Agency, Weathernews, Western Bulk, Wilson Sons, Windward Shipping and ZeroNorth.
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