January 16

Energy Realities #94 -Filmed Live On YouTube on January 16, 2024


Highlights of the podcast:

01:25 -Rental giant hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas for gas cars05:18 – U.S. resumes Russian oil imports and defies sanction.06:42 – Uranium imports from Russia09:02 – Defying sanctions with the Russian oil imports10:00 – The Japanese government has announced plans10:26 – Hydrogen is the next available mechanism for wealth transfer13:55 – The Jones act18:25 – Could China hack our electric grid?21:51 – Texas power grid27:06 – The federal government wants to get rid of all natural gas and coal fired power by 203530:17 – Hawaii Five Uh-Oh31:51 – TransWest transmission progress35:43 – The grid37:20 – We are at the whims of the weather40:57 – Cyber security43:52 – China has the most wind farms and solar farms44:21 – The grid stability and security in Europe

Energy Thought Leader, Podcast Host, Curitiba, Parana, BrazilInternational Author writing about energy, mining, and geopolitical issues. BulgariaPrincipal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Principal at DB Energy Advisors, energy author, and podcast host.Energy Consulting SpecialistEnergy Analyst | Economic and Geopolitical Analyst | ExFounder U&I Global | Consultant, Advisor | Commonwealth ScholarPresident, and CEO, Sandstone Group, Podcast Host

Armando Cavanha [00:00:03] Energy realities. Number 94. Energy threats. Good morning. Good afternoon everyone.

David Blackmon [00:00:10] Hello

Tammy Nemeth [00:00:12] Hello, everyone.

Stuart Turley [00:00:13] It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

Armando Cavanha [00:00:17] And, uh, let me show. Uh, so, uh, Stuart, uh, before we start, a friend of mine sent this photo from Caribbean Seas who found his face. The face of this photo by becoming a manager. Podcast and articles. Could you recommend.

Stuart Turley [00:00:38] Nice. You know, we had his yacht on there last week. Armando and team, uh, I know that he was perusing around and when this on the back of his yacht.

Armando Cavanha [00:00:48] Yeah, yeah. Uh, sorry. David. Oh. No joke.

David Blackmon [00:00:54] Oh, I love those.

Armando Cavanha [00:00:55] We love you.

David Blackmon [00:00:56] Would have been fun. We didn’t do that, but it would be fun. Yeah.

Irina Slav [00:00:59] You shouldn’t.

Armando Cavanha [00:01:01] That. So before we go to the discussions, as it in a, uh, uh, proposal was, let’s go to the newspaper headlines and could we start pursue it in a place? Uh, you have one?

Irina Slav [00:01:14] Yeah, I have one. But it’s just lovely out of nowhere, completely out of the blue. Totally unexpected rental job that it’s dumps EVs, including Teslas for gas cars. And the reason they’re dumping them is that they’re too high maintenance. Basically, they’re spending too much money maintaining these cars and, you know, covering damages when they break down. Even though we were being told that EV is such low maintenance compared to petrol cars because they have so much fewer moving parts, apparently this is not the case. Uh, it’s it’s so that they’re selling a third of their EV fleet. Something tells me this is just the beginning. And there will be further reductions in this fleet. And I can predict a wave of second hand EVs, hidden markets very soon.

David Blackmon [00:02:13] Yes, ma’am.

Irina Slav [00:02:16] Yeah, I know we’ll agree on that. It’s all right. We have second hand EV is being sold here in in the, uh, you know, the heaven for second hand cars. Uh, I saw the other day, uh, a Volkswagen. Eat up the little ones. Yeah. A second hand ev. No, it was actually a hybrid. And it sold for more than, uh, a comparable petrol car.

Stuart Turley [00:02:43] Of course.

Tammy Nemeth [00:02:45] Yeah.

Irina Slav [00:02:45] Use. Really? It’s second hand. You can’t do this. And it was that. That was my chuckle for the week. Oh, one of them.

Armando Cavanha [00:02:57] Yeah. Uh,

Tammy Nemeth [00:02:58] There are quite a few last week.

Irina Slav [00:03:00] Yeah.

David Blackmon [00:03:01] Yes. There were.

Stuart Turley [00:03:03] Well, yeah. I love this Irina on that story. They were talking about the insurance folks are starting to be a real problem. Uh, so when you sit back and take a look, the insurance is not Mickey Mouse and around on, uh, EVs. Um, the UK had some serious guy. I saw some I. Tammy, I’m not sure if you put it out there or not. Uh, a while ago, but insurance is one of the main drivers behind everybody having to bail out of. Um, EVs.

Irina Slav [00:03:36] Insurance is a great transition. Minded.

Tammy Nemeth [00:03:39] That’s what those are. But they, they have to divest from oil and gas investments, you know.

David Blackmon [00:03:45] Right.

Tammy Nemeth [00:03:45] That kind of thing. But with with respect to the EVs, if you have just the slightest bit of impact, you don’t know what kind of damage has been done to that battery, which ends up being almost the, you know, the frame of the car. So if the insurers are like, well, we have to replace the whole thing, which then of course makes everything more expensive.

David Blackmon [00:04:05] Yeah. I mean, we.

Irina Slav [00:04:05] Moving parts.

Tammy Nemeth [00:04:07] But no moving parts.

David Blackmon [00:04:09] We have the example out of, uh, I think it was Canada, right, a couple of weeks ago where a car had been involved in an accident, an EV. Uh, I think it was one of the Ford models. And the frame underneath the battery compartment got bent. And the. The dealer set the owner a bill for $60,000 for the repair. Yes, because they had to not only fix the frame, but they had to replace the entire battery compartment and the battery itself. And the bill was $60,000, which is almost what he paid for the car in the first place. You can’t make this stuff up.

Irina Slav [00:04:57] So the EVs basically cost nothing but the batteries. Uh.

David Blackmon [00:05:02] It’s the batteries, yeah. It’s insane. It’s absolutely. Insane. And it is not sustainable in any way, shape or form.

Tammy Nemeth [00:05:12] Yeah.

Armando Cavanha [00:05:13] Yeah. Okay. Stuart, please. Uh, yes. You know.

Stuart Turley [00:05:18] Uh, U.S., uh, resumes Russian imports and defy sanction. This was a really pretty cool little story. I’m not sure who I stole it from, but, um, it it it, uh, you know, years ago, people were saying, uh, I was saying we’re importing oil from Russia, and everybody goes, no, we’re not importing oil from Russia. We are hypocrites in the US. Not only do we put sanctions, uh, we import oil from Russia, even with sanctions. And it was above the EU, uh, $60 price. Um, I don’t see that changing.

Irina Slav [00:05:56] As this G7 price cap.

Stuart Turley [00:05:59] Thank you.

David Blackmon [00:06:00] Yes, yes. G7

Tammy Nemeth [00:06:02] So the US is defying its own sanctions and so.

Irina Slav [00:06:05] Is the EU.

Stuart Turley [00:06:07] Uh, yes. And and some of the culprits. I was trying to find out the, uh, port of entry on some of these and our beloved friends in, uh, California. Uh, just watch this. You were with Gavin Newsom. I’ve mentioned this before. I’ve got more stuff coming, but they’re planning on importing all their refined products from China. So not only are we hypocrites, we’re really big hypocrites.

Armando Cavanha [00:06:34] But Stuart, not only oil, but importing, uh, I suppose, uh, nuclear raw materials from Russia, you know.

Irina Slav [00:06:40] Oh, uranium. Yeah. Uranium imports from Russia. Uh, running high.

Stuart Turley [00:06:45] Uh, 20%. And I just interviewed a, uh, nuclear expert for uranium in the US, but we still don’t have the refining to make the yellowcake. And so it’s. Yeah, we gotta we can get the uranium, but, um, uh, I’d like to check the investors in the, uh, U.S. Senate that invested, like Bill and Hillary Clinton did. I just say that I something like that. Sorry.

Tammy Nemeth [00:07:14] I mean, Ross, Adam said that.

Stuart Turley [00:07:17] They’re great investors.

Tammy Nemeth [00:07:21] Well, you know, Canada has a lot of uranium in Saskatchewan. It’s the highest quality uranium in the world. But again, as Stu says, there’s where do you refine it? Where do you process it? Because Russia is the one who’s been doing it forever or for a very long time. And the United States, of course, offshored that that processing capability, just like with with the wind and solar and the EV batteries, the processing of those materials are taking place in China. They’re taking place elsewhere for a number of different reasons. Right. All related to this obsession with reducing greenhouse gas emissions. So makes us makes us vulnerable.

Stuart Turley [00:08:01] One of the things with this story just really is is sad is the African, uh, folks are being taken advantage of. And what I’m noticing in all the articles across the. World are. The massive amounts of trips from, uh, Europe, from the US, and everybody’s trying to lock up deals with critical minerals in Africa. And we are taking advantage of the West of the African folks

David Blackmon [00:08:30] Hard to believe

Stuart Turley [00:08:31] Pardon?

David Blackmon [00:08:32] So hard to believe, but they never got them.

Stuart Turley [00:08:36] Yeah, it’s just sad. I’m. I’m for, uh, Africa first. Uh, I think that they need to get them elevated out of poverty. And Armando, that film you sent this morning, Tammy was cracking up on, uh, about the hypocrisy of some of our political leaders.

Armando Cavanha [00:08:56] Yes.

Tammy Nemeth [00:08:57] Yeah. Some very important,

Tammy Nemeth [00:09:00] Can I add. Armando, can I add something with the. With this defying sanctions with the Russian oil imports? Because there was an article this morning in your active where they were saying that, um, that Russia has been flooding the European market with fertilizer, so defying more European sanctions and, uh, and the, and the solution was to reduce the amount of fertilizer. That farmers use so that they can do weaponised rubber.

David Blackmon [00:09:29] Oh of course. Yeah. Yeah.

Irina Slav [00:09:30] I love how the EU makes it sound like Russia is stuffing commodities down Europe road. They don’t want them. We will stuffing them down their throats. Yeah. It’s really unclear. I don’t know if it’s pathological. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Playing the victim. Always

Armando Cavanha [00:09:54] Uh, let’s let’s go to the next one. Uh, Stuart.

Stuart Turley [00:09:58] Um, on subs. Uh, the Japanese government has announced plans to spend 3 trillion to 20, uh, $20 and 86 billion on subsidies for delivered clean hydrogen and its derivatives for a 15 year period. I just I love Irina’s take on, um, uh, hydrogen. And I want to go on record as saying I think hydrogen is the next available mechanism for wealth transfer, because there is such a dramatic failure of wind and solar. And with the article that I believe I read it and Tammy and I and you talked about was the, uh, hydrogen corridor being put in. Right. Uh, hydrogen is such a small, uh, molecule, and the technology is not there. Early on, I’ll admit I’m a big hydrogen fan, but I’m afraid hydrogen is going to turn out just like the Hindenburg. So, um, I think it’s going to be the next. Well, um, uh, transformation from the rich to the, uh, to the rich from the poor to the rich. Um, and I just don’t believe that the technology’s there. And then the, uh, World Economic Forum is meeting today, and they’re now saying that they want to control the water. There’s going to be a water crisis, and there’s going to be an energy crisis. And Schwab said that, uh, they’re blackout of the grid and the blackout of the internet is going to be, uh, going to make like, uh, Covid was a warning, was a Warm-Up or insignificant? I can’t remember its phrase, but I believe hydrogen is going to be the next, uh, money laundering pit. If you were

Tammy Nemeth [00:11:57] Natural asset companies.

Irina Slav [00:12:00] Yeah.

Armando Cavanha [00:12:00] Yeah.

David Blackmon [00:12:01] Speaking of the WEF, the theme of the WEF conference this year, and it’s just hard to even you cannot make this stuff up. The theme is Restoring Trust.

Irina Slav [00:12:16] Oh, yes. I know.

David Blackmon [00:12:21] We have a full text, Klaus Schwab, Armando. I mean, this guy is like, the definitive bond villain. Okay. Yeah. You have to look at this guy to know you can’t trust a word that comes out of that many mouth.

Armando Cavanha [00:12:38] No.

David Blackmon [00:12:38] And then you’re going to have al Gore there. John Kerry’s going to be there. Hey, I don’t know. Biden might show up. Who? Who at the WEF conference can you trust do anything beneficial for the global community? I mean, it’s just the most it’s gone. It’s just so, hey, just.

Stuart Turley [00:12:58] How many battery powered Nobili that use?

Armando Cavanha [00:13:02] Yeah.

David Blackmon [00:13:03] I’m not.

Tammy Nemeth [00:13:03]  Well, it’s interesting because an article came up, uh, just before New Year’s where, um, it was saying that the only place where globalization and all these different groups can come together and speak openly is at the World Economic Forum. And that is really, really important on the global stage to be that convener where everyone’s there on the same level. And then I read the New York Post where they, they had the the hierarchy of the badges. So hardly everybody, they’re on the same level.

Irina Slav [00:13:38]  And they can talk openly.

Stuart Turley [00:13:41] The one thing that scares me.

Armando Cavanha [00:13:44] Yeah, Thank you, sir, for coming.

Stuart Turley [00:13:47] Oh, that’s a great for me.

Armando Cavanha [00:13:49] Yes. John’s act. Yeah.

Stuart Turley [00:13:50] Um, I think that that is an outstanding question. And the the Jones act is still in existence because of lobbyists. And David can correct me if I’m.

David Blackmon [00:14:01] Labor union.

Stuart Turley [00:14:02] And. Yes, uh, and the unions and I it’s now become a point. I believe that there’s only five, uh, 4 or 5 major shipyards in the US. Three are related or almost dedicated to military. And that leaves one left, and none of them are capable of building the large, uh, tankers. And and so, uh, if the Jones Act, it doesn’t even allow for U.S., uh, to buy somebody else’s tankers for a U.S. company, which I would be okay with. Hey. By a dang tanker. Um, uh, I, I would almost want to buy a used tanker from the Dart fleet. Uh, I think that, you know, there’s 5 to 600 Russian tankers, uh, and other tank, excuse me, Venezuelan, Iranian and others that are being self-insured. And those you can get tetanus by just looking at these things. And there is an absolute ecological disaster waiting to happen, and nobody’s going to pay to get those things cleaned up. Guess who’s using that oil out of those tankers? The West Gas, who is, uh, also using it? It’s going away. Yes. It’s now going away from the US Petro dollar because of the weaponization of the U.S. dollar from our current administration. So the Jones Act has a second and third order of magnitude that is very, very far reaching. And you tie that to the weaponization of the U.S. dollar. And holy smokes, Batman, it does really impact. So that is a great question. Was I don’t think, any hope of getting fixed.

David Blackmon [00:15:56] The Jones Act should have never existed. It should have been repealed 100 years ago. It has no real benefit to the American public. It’s just a tool to to ensure labor unions in the United States get to maintain labor jobs and increase costs for everything.

Stuart Turley [00:16:15] And, I want to.Go on. Record

Armando Cavanha [00:16:16] Like of local content is a protection of the market. No local content.

David Blackmon [00:16:21] It it it makes it illegal. You cannot it has very limited application. It prevents the movement of any good, uh, on a ship between one U.S port and another U.S. port on anything other than a U.S. flag vessel that is manned by a U.S. crew. So it’s a job protection act for American labor. That increases costs for everyone. Slows our economy and provides no useful benefit other than to a select few hundred individuals who work on those shifts.

Irina Slav [00:17:03] That’s very, very specific job protection.

David Blackmon [00:17:07] Yes it is.

Stuart Turley [00:17:08] And the unions de that I like the unions when they’re run. Right. And they do protect them. I do like the unions. But in this 100 jobs that are being protected, they’re hurting thousands of union jobs in a shipyard. So we let 100 people dictate the consumer price. It’s pretty sad.

David Blackmon [00:17:31] But to be clear, the Jones Act is a very key element of why you see Russian LNG tankers, uh, sailing into Boston Harbor and other New England ports every winter because it’s illegal to move U.S. LNG from Louisiana or Texas up to Boston Harbor, because there are no U.S. flagged LNG tankers staffed by U.S. crews. And so whether that applies to any of this Russian, back to the question that was asked, I don’t know whether that applies to any of these Russian oil exports, but it certainly applies to the LNG import.

Armando Cavanha [00:18:13] Great.

Stuart Turley [00:18:14] Good question.

Armando Cavanha [00:18:15] Yeah. Uh, Stuart please. It’s yours.

Stuart Turley [00:18:19] This one, uh, scares me to death. And, um, China could hack our. Could China hack our electric grid? In four words? Yes. And how soon? The real question is, my ark is my aukus our secretary? Secretary of, uh, uh, Homeland Security in on it? This is, uh, built up of about 4 or 5 different interviews and people that I’ve talked to that really do scare me. In that article, there was, uh, Trump had actually put in a executive order banning, uh, importing of equipment that could be remotely controlled by the Chinese or any other foreign national. The Biden administration nullified that immediately. And since then, the major components for the grid interconnects has resumed. That is coinciding with information that I found from the balloon. We had the Chinese balloon come across connect to the U.S. grid. I mean, the U.S., uh, internet provider and I talked to some folks yesterday about Chinese, uh, nationals that worked for security firms that were doing bad things. And I can’t go into any more than that. But then I was talking to, uh, Michael Yon, who was in Panama with George McMillan. Uh, George McMillan and I have video of my workers coming in on a Black Hawk helicopter to a Chinese military base that was getting ready to import Chinese military aged men into the United States. My orcas drove in, and he has pictures of him getting in and going in the meetings since that meeting last year. The base has been increased dramatically. 900 Chinese military aged men came in, uh, over the last year. But in the last 100 days, 10,900 Chinese military age men, uh, came in and Mayorkas knows about it. So you have not only the balloon which the Biden administration let roll by. You have it connect to the grid that they denied that it had, uh, the internet once it’s connected in a technology, uh, discussion that I’ve had with several folks. Once you connect to the grid and you can figure out where the IP addresses are, triangulate. And then there’s been another one from Kyle Reeves. There has been over 120 physical attacks on the grid that have been covered up out of mainstream media. The grid is under attack. But who’s attacking it? I got a question. Uh, is it our own government?

Armando Cavanha [00:21:38] No questions about. And how’s that one talking about? You are talking about grid. And, um, there is a comment from Victor Garcia.

Stuart Turley [00:21:46] Great question.

Armando Cavanha [00:21:47] David. Them and Stuart for sure. How Texas power grid.

Stuart Turley [00:21:53] I’m going to turn it over to David because David has had some fantastic, uh, post go out and everything else. David’s on it. And he’s also bundled up to protect.

David Blackmon [00:22:03] Well, I just I’m doing my part to conserve energy. Today, my wife and I have turned our thermostats down to 66, uh, due to the request from Ercot to conserve energy. As you can see, um, fully dressed to go to North Dakota. Uh, but I’m in Texas in my house. Um, you know, we, uh, we have, uh, snow on the ground. It’s, uh, the temperature, uh, right now is 11 degrees in Mansfield, Texas, where I live. Uh, the whole state basically is below freezing right now. Ercot issued a conservation request to all of its customers to conserve energy from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m. central time this morning. So we got an hour and a half to go, but it looks like it. And so here’s the reason why Ercot says, well, we have to conserve because we’re having unseasonably low wind right now across the state. Well that’s nonsense. One of the most well known facts about weather and wind energy is that the wind dies down as the temperatures drop in Texas. Ercot knows that full well they can plan. Full well, and I resent like hell. Them lying to their customers about that facet of this. I don’t blame Ercot for all this. They can’t control the weather, but they need to be honest in their in their public pronouncements. And that’s just a falsehood and everyone knows it. Uh, wind is underperforming because wind always underperforms when the weather isn’t just right. You’re getting zero from solar right now because the sun isn’t shining. And even when that sun comes up, folks, it’s going to be really cloudy across much of the state of Texas, and you’re not going to get as much solar as you’re normally going to get on a sunny day. We all know that too. What else is failing? Battery storage. Battery storage. Whoo! All summer long said it was saving the day on the Texas grid at 719 this morning. Was giving us point 8% of total generation. Where was the generation coming from? On the grid at 7:19 a.m. this morning, 85% of it was coming from natural gas and coal. Okay. And 67.4% of it was coming from. Guess what? Natural gas. So the survival of the Texas grid, uh, during this cold snap, is going to come down to what it always comes down to, and that is whether or not we can keep our pipelines from freezing up and our natural gas power plants from freezing up. Now, the PUC and the Railroad Commission and Ercot all tell us that we’ve made all this progress winterizing those facilities and ensuring they won’t freeze up, and most importantly, ensuring Ercot doesn’t turn the electricity off to those facilities like it did during Winter Storm Uri in 2021. And that’s what caused about 30% of natural gas to drop off the grid during Winter Storm Uri. And if all this progress has really been made, here’s the thing the grid is going to be just fine because we got enough natural gas to cover the demand. But if those gas plants start freezing up, or those pipelines start freezing up, then we’re going to have a real big problem. So that’s what it all boils down to here. Wind and solar are underperforming as they always do, and it’s all up to natural gas.

Stuart Turley [00:25:36] And Tammy’s been all over Canada and Alberta. Good question.

David Blackmon [00:25:43] Yes. Yeah. Uh.

Irina Slav [00:25:45] It was cold.

David Blackmon [00:25:46] Because it was cold. The wind was blowing yesterday. The sun was shining across most of the state yesterday. And so wind and solar didn’t charge the batteries. And so they’re not producing much today. Yeah. And again, this is all very predictable. And I try to defend her account when I can because I don’t want to demonize those folks. They work their butts off. They’re in a almost impossible situation because of the idiot regulations at the federal level, or mandating all this. Wind and solar get slammed into our grid, and it’s hard to manage such a complex mix. And they are woefully short of dispatchable thermal capacity, because our power generators in this state have refused to build new natural gas for a decade. And that’s the real problem here. And it’s why the legislature incentivize the building of new natural gas thermal capacity over the next five years, up to ten gigawatts of it, which is desperately needed and hopefully will get built up.

Armando Cavanha [00:26:50] Um, Tammy and Irina, that’s not the case of Bulgaria and Oxford, but case of Alberta. That’s better because of Alberta.

David Blackmon [00:26:59] Yes. Uh. Tammy.

Tammy Nemeth [00:27:00] Canada? Yeah. So, um, part of the thing in Canada, of course, is that the federal government wants to get rid of all natural gas and coal fired power by 2035. And the province of Saskatchewan said, no, we’re not going to do it. You don’t have a constitutional right to tell us what to do. We’re not going to do it. And so it’s created this big crisis. But in Alberta, where there was, uh, a socialist government that was in alignment with all of this net zero transition talk, um, shut down prematurely a bunch of their coal fired power. They said that they weren’t going to build new ones. Um, the conservatives came back in. They commissioned three new gas fired power plants, which are supposed to come online later this year. So that will be good. Uh, but in the meantime, natural gas is filling up the gaps as much as it can. They’ve built a lot of wind and solar, which produced zero. Of course, as David knows, in Texas, when it gets really cold and we’re in a northern climate, which gets maybe 6 or 7 hours of sunlight in a day. And, you know, everyone was like, oh, but it was really sunny the other day. Why did we have more solar? Because you’re in a northern latitude where even if it’s sunny, you’re not actually generating that much power from your solar panels. Um, and it’s it’s created this problem where they’ve had to use these interconnects and Ottawa and the energy transition people talk about, well, if the wind’s not blowing where you are, it’ll be blowing somewhere else. So if we just have long enough interconnectors, you can, um, offset what, when? When the weather’s bad. But if you’re a grid and you need to be planning for the future, you need to be planning for that. Um, extraordinary circumstance, not business as usual. And I think Meredith Angwin has talked very good about that in her book, Shorting the Grid, uh, of what’s required in actual planning. Hey, way to go, Stuart. Um, and not what they currently do, which seems to be concerned more about how do we do the pricing and do the interconnects and whatnot, rather than actually forward planning for those contingencies. And so Alberta had to put out the emergency alert saying, please don’t use so much, um, electricity because we’re we’re getting some from Saskatchewan. British Columbia was also having trouble. And even though they’re 80% hydro, um, they still needed to import electricity from Alberta. So Alberta is struggling. They’re shipping stuff to B.C., they’re getting stuff from Saskatchewan, and they still have to ask people not to use energy. So I think this is one of the elements of energy reality. When it’s bad weather, unreliable wind and solar is unreliable. And is that really what you ought to be based entire technological civilization on? Something that’s so reliable? Unreliable,

David Blackmon [00:30:03] Right Yes.

Armando Cavanha [00:30:04] Right.

David Blackmon [00:30:04] It’s insanity.

Armando Cavanha [00:30:06] Yeah. Uh, Stuart. Um, one more from you.

Irina Slav [00:30:11] This is the same one.

David Blackmon [00:30:12]  We already did.

Armando Cavanha [00:30:13] Oh, sorry. Sorry for this. Yeah, but

Stuart Turley [00:30:17] Hawaii Five-O. Uh oh. Uh, I love the energy. Bad boys. Those guys, you know, you need to follow them. Uh, you know, they’re not as good as David Blackmon. Irina, uh, you know, but, hey, they’re they’re they do good stuff. Hawaii. Uh, I believe it was two years ago. They took their last shipment of coal and of their last shipment of coal. The wind. Uh, they’ve had solar and wind and storage, just like we’re facing in Texas. And they really break out the numbers on this. As far as the, um, disaster that’s happening. And it’s a lot cheaper to have a coal standby because you don’t have to like, uh, it it’s just it makes sense to have standby power for the grid as opposed to this. So they’ve got rolling blackouts, uh, and they have some serious problems because they’re demanding the same thing that’s going on in Alberta, Texas, in the U.S., in these coast. It’s a great point.

Armando Cavanha [00:31:26] Perfect. Uh. David. please.

David Blackmon [00:31:34] Hello. But. Yeah, I wrote about this last summer, too. Uh, this is from Cowboy State Daily, which does a wonderful job of reporting on energy. Uh, specific to that state, uh, the Wyoming, which is a state I dearly love and have spent a lot of time in, um, this trans west, uh, transmission progress. Actually, it was really almost 20 years ago. Maybe they started permitting, uh, the permitting process for this 700 or 800 mile transmission line that’s supposed to carry wind energy. Uh, uh, electricity generated by Wyoming wind farms, uh, out to Oregon on the West Coast. And in 2005, they began the permitting process. You’d have to get permits, not just from the federal government, but also from the state government, local governments, rights of way, uh, archeological sites. Because when you’re, uh, going across the West, of course, you’re going across a lot of Native American lands with a lot of archeological sites on them. And every time your bulldozer turns, turns over anything, it looks like ashes from a campfire. You’ve got to halt your progress. But you can get the state archeologist or federal archeologist out there to, uh, survey the site and make sure that’s not some sacred Native American site, uh, which they want to preserve. And, and I don’t have any big problem with that. Uh, so this is how long it takes to just permit 7 or 800 miles of transmission for the United States now to fully electrify the United States, which the Biden administration keeps talking about, is going to require something like 200,000 miles of new transmission, high powered transmission lines in the United States, 7 or 800 miles to almost 20 years just to permit. It’s going to take another five years and probably longer than that to build the transmission lines, because in the process of putting in the transmission lines, you’re going to come across a lot more disputes about rights of way in archeological sites. And so also, uh, migrating animal corridors. And you know, how many birds you’re going to kill with those transmission lines is going to come up. You’re going to get sued by the center for Biological Diversity under the Endangered Species Act. Repeatedly, over and over again during the construction process. It’s no different than building a or gas pipeline across the West. And all this stuff happens all the time. And it’s why dwell one of 1000 reasons why this energy transition, as it’s envisioned by these idiots in the Biden administration is completely unsustainable and impossible in a free society that protects everyone’s rights. Okay. This is the key thing about this, and it’s why we’re increasingly moving to authoritarian form of government, not just in the United States, but across Canada and Europe as well. Because you cannot do this in a free society that protects everyone’s rights. And so everyone’s rights are going to go away as these zealots, these religious zealots continue to push this agenda. And it’s why this year’s election in the United States is probably the most important election we’ve ever had. I don’t like saying that, but this time it’s actually true.

Stuart Turley [00:35:08] Well said.

David Blackmon [00:35:09] That that’s my my third rant for the day, and I usually only have one of those. But this is three. I took a week off. So off, you know, I needed to do more

Stuart Turley [00:35:19] Irina Usually good for a good rant.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:21] Yeah, sorry, I put

David Blackmon [00:35:23] And I don’t want to dominate the conversation, so.

Armando Cavanha [00:35:26] No no no no no no no. You need to dominate the conversation. You all right? Fantastic. Let’s go ahead. David. Sorry I put before.

David Blackmon [00:35:34] Oh. Uh, well, yes. And so I talked with, uh, really smart people. Uh, Rob Allen, who was a senior analyst at inverse who studies the grid. This was on Thursday when when the weather forecast was entirely different than what’s turning out happening. And he was very optimistic about the potential for the grid to get through this cold spell. Uh, I think he’s going to send me over some more information today, so I’ll probably write a subsequent piece about it. But basically, Rob’s view was very supportive of the Ercot view that they issued on Wednesday, which was that the grid is well equipped to survive this cold snap, and I think it remains well equipped. We’re going to have plenty of generation as long as those natural gas facilities don’t freeze up. Which happened to about 30% of them. Again during Winter Storm Uri. But most of that was because those sites had not been properly registered as critical grid infrastructure sites, and Ercot turned the power off to them. As long as Ercot continues to provide electricity to. It’s a self-feeding process, okay. It’s like when you get that error condition in your Excel spreadsheet. This is a, you know, a what do they call it? I can’t you circular circular equation. You’ve got to keep the gas on to keep the electricity on. And you got to keep the electricity on to keep the gas on okay. It’s a big circle. And if one of those sides fails, the other side’s going to fail. So as long as we keep the electricity to those natural gas infrastructure facilities, we’re going to be okay.

Armando Cavanha [00:37:13] Yep. Perfect. Uh, David, please go ahead,

David Blackmon [00:37:20] Oh my god, So, uh, we are at the whims of the weather. This was a, uh. And I can’t remember. I apologize, I can’t remember the fellow’s name that gave you the ABC station out of Austin. Interviewed. Um, but, you know, he’s right. I mean, we are at the whims of the weather. To the extent that we still have this shortage of thermal dispatchable electricity in Texas, which we do and will for the next several years. And as long as Ercot modeling processes continue to over predict what they’re going to get from wind and solar, which appears to be a chronic issue at Ercot, and they have to figure out a way to adjust for that, because we know, without any doubt at all that wind and solar and probably and that means batteries are going to fail to it’s all going to fail when the weather conditions are not right. Okay. So we have to have up. But loading all this wind and solar on our grid is requiring us now to fund two different grids, a reliable grid that will keep the lights and the and the heating on when the wind and solar fail, and all the wind and solar that we’re being forced by the federal government to subsidize into reality. And that’s why your your power rates continue to go up, because we’re paying for two different grids. And unfortunately, that’s what we’re forced to do, mainly by federal regulations, which I won’t try to get into here.

Tammy Nemeth [00:38:46] But it’s not just in the United States, it’s in Europe, it’s in Canada, it’s in all of the different countries. And this, I think, is, is the first of the energy threats. Right. It it’s um, the weather is, is a we’re at the, the whim of the weather, which we tried to get away from over the past hundred years. And now we’ve gone back to being dependent on things that are subject to bad weather, which is a massive energy threat. And it’s not just geopolitical things. It’s this ideological and political commitment to doing these things that make everything more expensive and make us vulnerable to weather. I think one of the brilliant things about the past 200 years of development, with respect to diversification of energy sources, as we’ve talked about before, the energy edition. So we had wood, we still have coal, we still have natural gas, we have hydro, we have nuclear, we have wind and solar. In certain circumstances, it kind of makes sense, I guess if you’re out in the remote areas where you can’t attach to the grid. But now all of this is being put under threat by this commitment to get rid of most of the reliable sources of energy. Um, and then have it be reliant on these things that are vulnerable to weather.

Armando Cavanha [00:40:05] And could we list what are the threats, uh, we have for energy worldwide speaking now?

David Blackmon [00:40:14] Well, if you have photos of al Gore, John Kerry and Klaus Schwab, that’s a really good start.

Irina Slav [00:40:21] And bureaucrats, bureaucrats we have.

Armando Cavanha [00:40:23] Oh, yeah. Uh,.

David Blackmon [00:40:25] Here we go.

Armando Cavanha [00:40:25] Yeah, yeah.

Irina Slav [00:40:26] System was.

Armando Cavanha [00:40:27] Yeah. Sorry. John Kerry is uh, is is living.

David Blackmon [00:40:32] So there they got to replace John Kerry with uh, I’m thinking it may be John Podesta. Right? I mean, he’s the next obvious candidate for that gig. Um, or the lady who was the EPA director under Obama. What was her name? Steve. I can’t remember.

Tammy Nemeth [00:40:46] Gina McCarthy.

David Blackmon [00:40:47] Gina McCarthy would be.  Obvious choice. Yeah, yes. Thank you, Tammy.

Armando Cavanha [00:40:53] But we have energy security is a threat. Um, cyber security, that Stuart that mention before

David Blackmon [00:41:01] Cyber Security for sure is.

Armando Cavanha [00:41:02] For sure. Uh,

David Blackmon [00:41:04] No, uh. Lack of transformer supply. There’s a crisis in the supply of transformers on our power grid. It’s taking four years to source high voltage transformers, uh, in most instances now. And,

Tammy Nemeth [00:41:17] Well Think also of the threats.

Armando Cavanha [00:41:19] Yes. The U.S. election is, uh, something about the come. Yeah,

Tammy Nemeth [00:41:24] Yeah, well, there’s that and then there’s the all the stuff that’s going on in the Middle East with the shipping being, um, targeted. And so let’s say that your transformers are being built elsewhere and they eventually do get constructed. How do you get them to Europe or to North America? Well, they have ships, right? Slowly. And, uh, then that ends up being affected by. One of these choke points. Um, so we have the traditional kind of threats to energy, which is shutting off the transport and supply and whatnot. And then you have these additional, um, political threats. And then, of course, you have the weather threats.

Armando Cavanha [00:42:01] Red sea is a threat for energy now.

David Blackmon [00:42:05] Oh.

Irina Slav [00:42:06] There will always be some instability somewhere, right? Yeah, right. In that sense, offshoring is a good idea, but it’s a good idea. Theoretically, it’s not really applicable under all circumstances and by all countries because they don’t have all the resources they need.

David Blackmon [00:42:23] They don’t have the resources. Yeah. That’s why coal is so important in the developing world, because coal is the easiest, most cheapest source of reliable 24 seven power generation known to mankind. And that’s why coal isn’t going away.

Irina Slav [00:42:42] And it’s abundant.

David Blackmon [00:42:43] And it’s abundant. It’s everywhere

Tammy Nemeth [00:42:44]  And into everywhere. I mean, look at Germany now that they’re reconsidering the shutting off of their coal power, now they want to maybe expand it. That’s awesome. Because they have a lot of it. Right. And a lot of the Eastern European countries have a lot of it.

Irina Slav [00:43:04] Yeah. It’s the dirtiest going to.

David Blackmon [00:43:07] Yep. By the way, Patrick Devine, at the end of my last rant, uh, gave me a line I’m going to steal. That was a circular rant. I appreciate that, Patrick. Let’s talk In a rant.

Armando Cavanha [00:43:17] Oh, yeah. Where? Oh, sorry.

David Blackmon [00:43:19] I’m stealing that one.

Armando Cavanha [00:43:21] Oh, yeah. It’s here Sorry. Yeah, I lost.

David Blackmon [00:43:24] It was definitely a circular rant.

Armando Cavanha [00:43:26] Yeah. Uh oh.

David Blackmon [00:43:30] It is interesting that only Western democracies are trying to implement the rush to renewables. They’re at risk of political insecurity as well as energy insecurity, which makes you have to wonder about the motivations behind all of this. Because the clear beneficiary of all of it. Well, there’s two mainly China, but also Russia. Those are the names that.

Irina Slav [00:43:52] China has the most wind farms and solar farms.

David Blackmon [00:43:56] That’s true. Yes, yes.

Irina Slav [00:43:58] China is building massive amounts of wind. It’s not just the West.

David Blackmon [00:44:04] Right.

Irina Slav [00:44:04] But it’s also. But they’re also seeing things locally.

Tammy Nemeth [00:44:07] But they also build nuclear. And they also build coal.

Irina Slav [00:44:10] Exactly.

David Blackmon [00:44:14] That’s the. Difference.

Stuart Turley [00:44:17] Irina, what do you see in Europe? Um, from the grid stability and security in Europe. Um, our media shut it down. It’s. Germany is now a third world country again, and they’re now rebuilding, as Tammy brought out. But do you think Ursula and the other folks are going to be forcing the renewable stories again, tougher and even more.

Irina Slav [00:44:44] They have been doing it for years. No reason for them to stop now. But, uh, you know, the German farmers took to the streets because they wanted to remove the subsidies that are fuel subsidies. So, you know, if somebody tries to tell us, you have to learn to live with blackouts, I don’t think it’s going to go down well, but we’ve talked about it before is just it just has to get worse before it gets better. I mean, people need to feel the pain.

David Blackmon [00:45:15] Thank you for coming back, Irina, by the way. You never failed to correct. It never failed to correct me up there. Thanks, I love it.

Irina Slav [00:45:25] Thanks.

Armando Cavanha [00:45:26] But.

Irina Slav [00:45:27] Yeah, it’s.

Tammy Nemeth [00:45:29] That’s part of the energy reality, right? Irina.

Irina Slav [00:45:31] Yeah. Exactly.

David Blackmon [00:45:33] Exactly.

Armando Cavanha [00:45:34] Yeah.

Tammy Nemeth [00:45:34] Unfortunately

Irina Slav [00:45:39] Yeah. Until we lose our comfort, we don’t care.

Tammy Nemeth [00:45:43] Yeah.

Irina Slav [00:45:43] People don’t. Yeah. That’s right. Until the heat pump stops working.

Armando Cavanha [00:45:48] Yeah. That’s right.

Tammy Nemeth [00:45:50] And then they’re plugging in the little base heater or something trying to keep warm in one room of their house. And then they wonder why their electricity costs go up.

Armando Cavanha [00:46:02] Uh. Another, comment of Jeffrey.

David Blackmon [00:46:06] Check that over, my man. How you doing, Jeff? There’s a good friend of mine from Houston who I haven’t seen in a since we moved up to to North Texas. Great guy. Uh, what? Uh, one of the most naturally funny people on the face of the earth is Jeffrey Vanover. I hope you’re doing well, Jeff.

Armando Cavanha [00:46:27] Uh, but I suppose to the conclusion Stuart David Irina and Tammy, that the most important threat that we have is mindset.

Stuart Turley [00:46:42]  I vote Irane to go first.

Armando Cavanha [00:46:44] We all agree.

Stuart Turley [00:46:46] Uh, Irina. What? You what do you think?

Irina Slav [00:46:48] Well, that’s I absolutely agree. What I, uh, just said we’re stupid. And until we feel discomfort, we will not start thinking. Well, Present company excluded because by necessity or. But with desire. We want to know more about how energy works. But most of the people don’t care. I’m actually preparing a subset for this. I’m going to call it live among the zombies because when it comes to energy. There’s no thinking. And this is the biggest threat because it makes all the other threats possible. And amplifies them to different extents, but it amplifies them.

Tammy Nemeth [00:47:33] Yeah, because people don’t want to think they’re feeling. They feel so strongly about these issues and those feelings, you know,.

Irina Slav [00:47:41] Personal truths. Yeah.

Tammy Nemeth [00:47:42] Their personal truths. Their personal feelings.

Irina Slav [00:47:45] Yeah.

David Blackmon [00:47:46] Well, maybe weeks know when when, uh, the Democrats succeed in tearing down the statue of Thomas Jefferson and the Jefferson Memorial, which is an inevitability, by the way, uh, maybe we can get that statue of Greta to replace her.

Irina Slav [00:48:00] Don’t say this Please .

Tammy Nemeth [00:48:00] Don’t say that.

Armando Cavanha [00:48:02]  Thank you so much. It was a fantastic conversation this morning. Thank you.

David Blackmon [00:48:07] Yes it was. Thank you all.

Irina Slav [00:48:10] Have a great day

David Blackmon [00:48:11] Have a great week. Thanks for all the great comment.

Armando Cavanha [00:48:15] Thank you all.

Tammy Nemeth [00:48:15] Thank you.

Irina Slav [00:48:16] Bye bye.

Tammy Nemeth [00:48:17] See yah

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