Dropping Oil Price Boosts Odds of Ukraine Peace Deal, Trump Says

ENB Pub Note: President Trump’s team still does not understand what motivates President Putin to end the war. In the following article from Bloomberg, President Trump oddly says that low oil prices will bring President Putin to the table. I disagree; he has made money at lower than market rates for years.  He trades in Rubles and not the U.S. Dollar, which helps him out immeasurably. Putin is also prosecuting the war against the City of London and the City of Paris, and not President Trump. 

President Putin has publicly stated he wants to do business with the United States and end business with the EU and the UK.  That includes Arctic oil and gas as well as critical minerals. They have tried to bankrupt Russia, but they were able to survive selling oil and gas below market rates and growing exports through the use of their Shadow Fleet to China and India. Check out the section from George McMillon’s contribution page on Energy News Beat here.https://energynewsbeat.co/george-mcmillian/

• 2021 (Pre-Sanctions Baseline):
  • Volume: Exported ~4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and condensate, roughly 45% of its 10.5 million bpd production.
  • Revenue: Oil and gas combined accounted for 45% of Russia’s federal budget (~$169 billion total). Crude oil was the largest contributor.
  • Key Markets: OECD Europe (50%, 2.35 million bpd), China (30%, 1.4 million bpd), Netherlands/Germany (~25%, 1.1 million bpd combined).
• • Volume: Exported ~5 million bpd of crude and condensate, with total oil exports (including products) at 7.8 million bpd.
  • Revenue: High oil prices led to a trade balance surplus of $227 billion (oil and gas).
  • Key Markets: Shift toward Asia due to EU sanctions. China and India increased imports significantly.
• • Volume: Seaborne crude oil and condensate exports to Asia rose 57% year-on-year. Total exports remained stable at ~4.7–5 million bpd.
  • Revenue: ~6% revenue increase despite a 2% volume drop, driven by higher Urals prices ($74/barrel in August).
  • Key Markets: China (47%), India (35–38%), EU (7%, via Druzhba pipeline exemptions), Turkey (6%).
• • Volume: Crude oil exports stable at 235 million tons (4.7 million bpd).
  • Revenue: Monthly revenues averaged ~EUR 210–220 million per day for seaborne crude, with pipeline crude at ~EUR 72–86 million per day. Annual budget saw a 50% increase from crude oil’s Mineral Extraction Tax.
  • Key Markets: China (47%), India (38%), EU (6%), Turkey (6%).
• 2025 (Jan–Mar):
  • Volume: Seaborne crude volumes dropped slightly (e.g., 18% month-on-month decline in China in January).
  • Revenue: Pipeline crude revenues stable at EUR 81–86 million per day; seaborne crude at ~EUR 210 million per day (October 2024).
  • Key Markets: China (47%), India (38%), EU (6%, via Hungary/Slovakia/Czechia exemptions).

• • Volume: Exported 2.8 million bpd, including 750,000 bpd diesel to Europe (10% of EU demand).
  • Revenue: Included in $169 billion oil/gas budget share.
  • Key Markets: Europe (major diesel market), Asia (fuel oil, vacuum gasoil).
• 2022–2023:
  • Volume: Petroleum product exports to Asia rose 80% in 2023. Total exports ~2.85 million bpd.
  • Revenue: Declined in 2023 (e.g., -54% in September due to domestic gasoline/diesel export bans).
  • Key Markets: Turkey (24%), China (12%), Brazil (10–11%).
• • Volume: Stable, with Brazil’s imports up 40% (January–October).
  • Revenue: Monthly revenues fluctuated: EUR 176 million/day (October), EUR 194 million/day (December).
  • Key Markets: Turkey (24–25%), China (12%), Brazil (11%).
• 2025 (Jan–Mar):
  • Volume: 6% reduction in export volumes in January, but revenues rose 2% due to price effects.
  • Revenue: EUR 178–207 million/day (January–March).
  • Key Markets: Turkey (25–26%), China (11–13%), Brazil (11–12%).

• • Volume: Produced 762 billion cubic meters (bcm), exported 210 bcm via pipeline (8.9 trillion cubic feet, Tcf).
  • Revenue: ~$55 billion (part of $169 billion oil/gas total).
  • Key Markets: Europe (69%, 155 bcm), China (10 bcm via Power of Siberia), Turkey.
• • Volume: Exports fell 48% to 6.2 Tcf (175 bcm), due to Nord Stream sabotage and EU market decoupling.
  • Revenue: High prices mitigated losses, contributing to $227 billion trade surplus.
  • Key Markets: China (14%), Turkey (12%), Germany (11%).
• • Volume: Exported 175.7 bcm, up slightly from 169.9 bcm in 2022. Power of Siberia to China hit 802 Bcf (22.7 bcm).
  • Revenue: Revenues rose 9% year-on-year.
  • Key Markets: EU (40%), China (27%), Turkey (26–29%).
• • Volume: Pipeline gas exports to EU dropped after Ukraine transit ended (December). Total exports ~146 bcm.
  • Revenue: EUR 49–104 million/day (June–December). Peak in December (EUR 104 million/day, highest since 2022).
  • Key Markets: EU (39–40%), China (27–29%), Turkey (25–27%).
• 2025 (Jan–Mar):
  • Volume: 14% drop in January due to Ukraine transit halt; slight recovery in February (+1%).
  • Revenue: EUR 64–70 million/day.
  • Key Markets: EU (38–39%), China (28–29%), Turkey (27%).

• • Volume: 40 bcm (8% of global LNG supply), making Russia the 4th largest LNG exporter.
  • Revenue: Included in $55 billion gas exports.
  • Key Markets: Europe, China, Japan.
• • Volume: Rose >10% to ~44 bcm, despite pipeline export collapse.
  • Revenue: ~EUR 10 billion annually, largely untaxed due to Novatek exemptions.
  • Key Markets: EU (increasing), China, Japan.
• • Volume: Dropped 2% to ~43 bcm. EU imports rose 13% year-on-year.
  • Revenue: ~$4.5 billion (less than oil).
  • Key Markets: EU (50%), China (20–22%), Japan (18–19%).
• • Volume: Record 33.6 million tons (~45 bcm). EU imported 24.2 bcm.
  • Revenue: EUR 27–55 million/day (July–December). Surged 20% in December to EUR 55 million/day.
  • Key Markets: EU (49–50%), China (22%), Japan (18%).
• 2025 (Jan–Mar):
  • Volume: 13% drop in January (lowest since winter); rose 9% in February. Total ~24.2 bcm annualized for EU.
  • Revenue: EUR 40–52 million/day.
  • Key Markets: EU (49–50%), China (21–22%), Japan (18–19%).

• • Volume: Russia accounted for 21% of global palladium, 11% nickel, 9% aluminum, 7% refined copper.
  • Revenue: Metals exports ~$50 billion (total, including non-critical).
  • Key Markets: Europe, China, U.S. (pre-sanctions).
• 2022–2023:
  • Volume: Likely stable, though sanctions disrupted some Western markets. Nickel and palladium exports continued via China and Turkey.
  • Revenue: No specific data, but metals contributed ~12% of $425 billion total exports in 2022.
  • Key Markets: Shift to China, India, Turkey as EU reduced reliance.
• 2024–2025:
  • Volume: No precise figures. Palladium and nickel exports likely sustained due to global demand (e.g., automotive, batteries).
  • Revenue: Included in ~$50 billion annual metals exports.
  • Key Markets: China (dominant), India, Turkey. EU imports minimal due to sanctions.

• 2024 revenues estimated from daily figures (e.g., EUR 652 million/day total fossil fuels in December).
• Critical minerals revenues are rough estimates based on 2021–2022 metals data.
• 2025 data (Jan–Mar) suggests stable oil revenues, declining gas revenues, and no clear minerals data.

1. Oil Dominance: Crude oil and products remain Russia’s largest export revenue source, with China and India absorbing most volumes post-2022.
2. Gas Challenges: Pipeline gas exports to Europe collapsed after Nord Stream sabotage and Ukraine transit halt, but LNG exports hit record highs in 2024 due to EU demand.
3. Critical Minerals: Limited data, but Russia’s palladium and nickel exports likely shifted to Asia, maintaining global relevance.
4. Sanctions Impact: Redirected trade to Asia mitigated revenue losses, though enforcement gaps (e.g., shadow tankers, EU LNG imports) sustain Russia’s earnings.

• Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA): Monthly fossil fuel export analyses (2023–2025).
• International Energy Agency (IEA): 2021–2022 energy market data.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Export statistics.
• Posts on X: Sentiment and partial data (used cautiously).
• Other: Reuters, Nature Communications, The Guardian.

From Bloomberg:

President Donald Trump said the sliding price of oil is intensifying pressure on Russia and boosting the odds for a deal to end its war in Ukraine.

“I think Russia, with the price of oil right now — oil has gone down — I think we’re in a good position to settle,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. “They want to settle; Ukraine wants to settle. If I weren’t president, nobody would be settling.”

West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was trading around $57.21 Monday afternoon, down roughly 27% since Trump took office in January. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ weekend decision to pump more crude — even with demand expected to fall amid Trump’s trade war — has pushed prices lower.

Trump has repeatedly prodded the OPEC cartel to boost output and lower prices, arguing it would starve Russia of revenue and help bring an end to the war. Administration officials have also raised the prospect of more sanctions and other tools to intensify economic pressure on Russia, as peace talks drag on.

The president’s comments come a week ahead of his planned trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. It also coincides with efforts by the European Union to curb Russia’s energy might with a planned proposal to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, Bloomberg reported.

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