Daily Energy Standup Episode #289 – Biden’s Export Dilemma, Indonesia’s Renewable Struggles, and the Call for IEA Reform

JAKARTA – Indonesia is planning to slash the targeted share of renewables in the national energy mix, a move seen by experts as a step back in the country’s ambition toward clean energy, while signaling its light-hearted […]

Progressive Lawmakers Line Up Behind Costly Fix For Error They Made In Renewable Energy Plan

Market to be short oil from 2025 onwards, Occidental CEO at Davos

The International Energy Agency (IEA) turns 50 this year. Doubtless there will be champagne-infused celebrations at its Paris headquarters. But on this side of the Atlantic, it’s past time for the United States, the biggest […]

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro01:26 – Biden Weighs Banning Natural Gas Exports to Save the Climate03:26 – Indonesia to abandon 23% renewable energy target by 202505:26 – Progressive Lawmakers Line Up Behind Costly Fix For Error They Made In Renewable Energy Plan07:46 – Market to be short oil from 2025 onwards, Occidental CEO at Davos10:18 – Energy Information Has Never Mattered More—So It’s Time to Reform the IEA and the EIA14:26 – Markets Update16:03 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What’s going on? Everybody, welcome in to the Thursday, January 18th, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat standup. Here are our top headlines. First up, Biden weighs banning natural gas exports to save China. I’m not kidding you. That’s the headline. Next up Indonesia to abandon 23% renewable energy target by 2025. Next up progressive lawmakers line up behind costly fix for error they made in the renewable energy plan. Again not kidding you. Next up market to be short oil from 2025 onwards. According to Occidental CEO at Davos. And finally energy information has never mattered more. So it’s time to perform the IEA and the EIA. We will then hop over and quickly cover what’s going on in the finance department. Um, specifically what happens with oil and gas prices. We did see the API, uh, projecting crude oil inventory numbers, which you will get, uh, along with natural gas storage numbers as you listen to this on Thursday. And then we will let you guys get out of here again for Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We are looking forward to kicking this off. Stu, where do you want to begin? [00:01:25][70.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:25] Oh my goodness. Let’s start with our good buddy Biden. He weighs in banning natural gas exports to save the climate. Holy cow. Batman, this is out of politico. The Biden administration is launching a review that could tap the brakes on booming U.S. natural gas exports. We’re the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. We’re really hoping that the Doe will pause any new permits for industry, because we know that the Biden administration really needs a climate win in order for them to win the public, win the election. This is criminal. If these politicians want to be elected or reelected in this upcoming presidential election, they’re going to have to make some bold choices and some bold moves. In the words of Scooby Doo Retro. Second order of effects are going to go horribly on this one. [00:02:30][64.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:31] Yeah. I mean, I think here’s the problem. The problem is, natural gas is probably the only thing that can save us from climate change with, with, while also not absolutely destroying the communities when it comes to how much energy we have available. So it’s absolutely insane that they want to do this. You know, we’re about to cover why the EIA and the IEA need reform. The Department of Energy need some reform. [00:02:58][27.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:59] Oh, absolutely. And and also when you they’re they’re looking at $34 trillion in debt. But when you talk about the export, the math for exports, you got to have exports when you’re in debt, $110.5 billion in exports this year. Geez. All right. Anyway, uh, this has got so much in it. We could go for another hour, but let’s go ahead and go to Indonesia. Indonesia is really having to under have some problems. Indonesia to abandon 23% renewable energy targets by 2025. They can’t afford it. Yeah. Flat out. They just can’t afford it. Indonesia. This is a, uh, quote from, uh, Arlen Tassler. Uh, he’s the mineral resources, uh, minister. We have to be realistic, our friend said when asked about the plan to lower the renewable energy. We will adhere to the commitment we made, but we have to work toward it with what we have. You gotta. You gotta stay within your limits. I mean, and I applaud them. It’s not that it’s dead. Ding dong. The wicked commitment is dead. This is, you know. Hey, we gotta we have to go ahead and do this gradually. This is like the UK Prime Minister that says, hey, we’re going to delay it. And everybody absolutely went nuts. In contrast, he saw his coal come, uh, production reach an all time high at 775 million tons. More than 66% of it was exported to other folks. You know, King Coal is going to be around. We just gotta have the technology and the money spinning the, you know, clean coal, natural gas, nuclear until the wind and solar technology can be sustainable. [00:04:53][113.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:54] Yeah. And we also figure out what’s going on with the grid. I mean, it’s no surprise Indonesia is switching back and trying to combat their rising energy usage by using less renewables, because that’s harder to do. So, I mean, this is this only is shocking if you don’t listen to the show. So I’m sure everybody who listened. The show is well aware, um, that this is coming down. Um, and we’ll start probably seeing this around the globe. [00:05:19][24.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:19] Exactly. It’s just it’s starting. It’s one of the things is a pattern, Michael. It next one here. Progressive lawmakers line up behind costly fix for error they made in renewable energy plan. Michael Holy smokes Batman, what an error. Grab your wallet. Here are the details. Um, okay. No cap was placed on the tax credits in 2022. They passed the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act, and as Dan Bongino calls it, the killers Bill. With a cost of an estimated $1.2 trillion, far exceeding the, uh, original claims. The biggest elements of the law are expected now to be $263 billion. So in those tax that didn’t have caps on it, 30% of the price of the project was given to them by the government in subsidies. That is what this is all about. [00:06:30][70.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:30] It’s almost like they wanted to do this in the first place. [00:06:34][3.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:35] Uh, and it is, uh, listen to this. Uh, Casten, also an avid, uh, IRA supporter, now admits to the gravity of the problem, saying that 80% of the clean energy progress we’ve made with the Inflation Reduction Act will be lost unless we reform transmission, transmission and permitting. So we have gone into bankruptcy as a country to put the IRA into, uh, motion inflation as at a effective rate, I’m going to say 17% because of food and everything else. And then you take a look at this. It’s worthless. It is absolutely worthless. And the only way that we’re going to get out of here is out of inflation and lower our debt is lower energy prices. How do you do that? You use natural gas. You use nuclear. You do the regulatory issues. This was a telling, total telling. [00:07:38][62.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:39] And all I gotta say is, what’s a few trillion between friends? [00:07:41][2.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:42] Oh, we’re going to have that t shirt. Maybe we are having that deal. What’s next? Let’s go to market to be short of oil from 2025 on onwards, says Occidental CEO at Davos. Hey, I was surprised to see her there. Um, I said hi to her in the hall, but she, uh, kind of was a little busy. I I’m surprised I’m not surprised by her comments. Um, and I’m not surprised that she’s there, quite honestly, is because Occidental has done a great job. You’ve in order to survive in this carbon nutty world, they’ve gone down the carbon route and are getting the carbon subsidies and everything else. Um, Hollub said that the near term, the markets are not balanced, supply demand is not balanced, adding that 2025 and beyond is when the world is going to be short of oil. So this is what she is saying is indirect, contrary to what the EIA or saying in the IEA, both of those are, you know, like missing zoom cookies upstairs. I think this is another quote from her. I think the industry is going is looking at a scenario where we will be able to do all the right things we need to do as part of the transition. She’s got a level head on her shoulders. Even though she’s at Davos. I hope she takes a bath on the way out. [00:09:05][83.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:05] She really does. I mean, we did the the Oxy Crown ROC deal we did on the deal spotlight. Little expensive little expensive. But if prices are going to rise significantly maybe the deal doesn’t look that bad to begin with. Um, but yeah, it’s surprising to see her at Davos, but also not oxy. Uh uh uh, if you had to say a progressive oil and gas company, they’d qualify as one from the standpoint of they dabble in ESG. They dabble in, you know, the carbon capture space. They’ve got their stuffs in there. They’re more you know, it doesn’t surprise me that oxy there I did see on CNBC this morning. Uh Michael Wirth Chevron is well represented there. So they’re all there man. [00:09:42][37.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:43] Hey I gotta give a shout out to Jamie Diamond. Uh, this morning he had a, uh, also an interesting comment. He said, why can’t we all just get along and say, uh, quit having, uh, the Democrats start, you know, yelling at the the mag is because the mag has actually had some good ideas. And so he just says, hey, why don’t we all have discussions? I liked what he had to say. I don’t always like what he has to say, but I want to give a shout out to folks when they do say something, and I. I don’t agree with everything, Maggie, but I don’t. Agree with me and yelled at either Joe. All right. Let’s go to the next one. This one’s kind of funny, Michael. Energy information has never mattered more. So it’s time to reform the IEA in the IEA. This one’s a little bit wild on the story because they have said, Michael, trust us, we need to be trusted is the the the whole Davos thing. And I’m like what you think I wouldn’t trust you with my dog. Uh, and so I’m sitting here thinking then they come back and say we’re going to take on news and media outlets and, and we’re going to have the disinformation come in. So anybody that doesn’t own their own channels will not be able to get out their own story. And guess who they kept mentioning? Elon and Twitter. They hated that they he’s evil. He is like Holy smokes. Okay, so let’s go in here. Uh, why is reform needed? Start with. In fact, the creation of the IEA was triggered by energy shock, which caused the global recession in 1974 because of the oil embargo. Oil prices shot up 400%. Uh, and then. Unbelievable. I’m going to go ahead. And this is all leading up. So you have the weaponization of the media and the controls are trying to put in place. They’re trying to control your carbon. We notice that we had the other story in this red carbon, uh, with Occidental and that she’s very big into the carbon. We have this one. I’m going to play this video here. And it is amazing. Michael, let’s go ahead and Miss Producer, can you play the video. [00:11:57][134.2]

Video: [00:11:58] We’re developing through technology and ability for consumers to measure their own carbon footprint. What does that mean? That’s. Where are they traveling? How are they traveling? What are they eating? What are they consuming on the platform? So, individual carbon footprint tracker Hmhm. Stay tuned. We don’t have it operational yet, but this is something that we’re working on. [00:12:22][24.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:25] Holy smokes. [00:12:26][1.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:27] Holy smokes. Batman. [00:12:28][0.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:29] Are you downloading that app? [00:12:30][1.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:30] Oh absolutely not. That means that not only are they going to censor everything. They’re going to track whether or not you eat a bug today. Did you eat your bug, Billy? Holy smokes! Again. And I know I keep saying that, but, Billy, you didn’t meet your buddies. Now you know. And so you can’t go out and, like, dodge bullets in the yard. This is ridiculous. [00:12:54][23.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:55] Ridiculous? I’m with you. It’s absolutely ridiculous. This guy just says it nose nonchalantly. Yeah, you’re a carbon tracker will tell you. You know, I tell you when we, you know, tell you when you step outside how much carbon you’re it’s is unbelievable. [00:13:06][11.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:07] And one last thing. Did you see the guy? He is one of the funniest comedians I’ve ever seen. He stood up and he has a backdrop. He stands up and says, uh, in the video, I would I’m going to put it in the show notes. He stands up and goes, I’d like to thank everybody at Davos. And it looks right over at our Schwab and, uh, Ursula and says he drops that F-bomb right on. [00:13:29][21.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:29] I was an edited stooge just not to burst your bubble. That was completely edited. [00:13:32][3.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:33] Oh, I know what I know. It was me. Oh, no, he is a comedian. I mean, he also does the same thing at The View and he just drops right on it. And he is a heck of a comedian. I love me so. Anyway, I thought it was funny. [00:13:46][13.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:47] And absolutely is hilarious. [00:13:48][0.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:49] All right, after you dude. [00:13:50][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:50] All right. We’ll we’ll shift to finance here guys. But before we do, that will quickly pay the bills here. As always, this podcast, uh, the news and analysis you just heard and are about to hear is brought to you by the world’s greatest website, Energy News Beat.com the best place for all your, uh, energy and oil and gas news. Stu and the team do a tremendous job of keeping that website up to speed with everything you need to know to be at the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy business here, we’ve got a lot of great stuff. Hit the description below. You can check out all the timestamps, emailed the show questions@EnergyNewsBeat.com, dashboard.Energynewsbeat.com. [00:14:23][32.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:26] I mean when I look at the the markets today do we saw S&P 500 down about 5/10 of a percentage point. Same with Nasdaq down about a half a percentage point. Bitcoin fairly flat down to 42,677. Crude oil is actually fairly flat on the day. But after uh touching below $71 to see us now sitting as we record this about 550 here on the 17th at 7282, it feels like there’s some later strength in the markets throughout the night. We did see it about, um, noon today on the 17th. Price is all the way again, a little bit below 71 in that upper 70. So um, continue to find support there, you know, despite a lot of this cold weather. Again, part of the reason why, as we move to natural gas, we’re now down at 288 is not necessarily because of the freeze that we just had, but because of what is looking going to be a end of January is going to be a little bit warmer than I think a lot of people expected. So that’s part of what’s floating in here. All pretty quiet on the Western Front when it comes to oil and gas news, we did see the IRP, um, weekly crude inventory estimates. You will hear both that and natural gas storage drop tomorrow. Um, they forecast about a 500,000 barrel, uh, build in the petroleum reserve. So I didn’t have much movement on the markets that came out about 230, um, yesterday. So good to know there, stew, but pretty much all quiet. You know, there’s a lot of potential M&A that could be going on. Everyone’s kind of wrapped up in Davos right now. Um, so you know, we’re uh, we’re looking forward to but this is our uh, our last hope for the week. [00:15:51][85.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:52] Oh yeah. It but I’ll tell you what. We got us some uh let’s see. We got some really cool folks to drop here real quick. [00:15:58][6.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:58] Yeah. What’s on the podcast? I was going to say Friday. You hear the podcast, Saturday, you’ll hear the weekly roundup. What do we got? [00:16:03][5.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:04] Let me see what they got on production. And I’ll tell you here in just sick. We got us some great people coming around the corner in here. And then, uh, get a drum roll. And it is, uh, Barbara Denton. Okay. We have, uh, Shane Stall. He’s with West Comm. This was a van tastic, uh, discussion. I, I love him. He is absolutely great. We have Ron Miller from, uh, the, um, he’s, uh, he’s got a big event at the School of Mines. Absolutely a great guy. They’re working on John Cash with uranium. Yes. I got another nuclear guy that I’m getting ready to interview. And we’re working next week on Michael Yon and the grid and political problems at the border. So the grid is under attack, baby. Live from the border. Uh, from the border. Hey, who would have guessed? Anyway, we got a lot of great stuff going on. [00:17:00][56.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:01] We do have a lot, guys. You who? The weekly recap on Saturday will be back. In your, um, ears on Monday morning, recapping everything and getting you prepped for the week, guys. But with that, will let you out of here. Get back to work. Appreciate you checking this out for Stuart Turley. I’m Michael tanner. [00:17:01][0.0]

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