Daily Energy Standup Episode #278 – OPEC’s Influence, LNG Ventures, and 2024 Market Outlook

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OPEC’s Influence on Oil Prices To Remain Significant In 2024

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on? Everybody, welcome in to the first episode of 2024 here on the Daily Energy News beat. Standup. It is a gorgeous as I mentioned, Wednesday, January 3rd, 2024 out have never it’s going it’s hard get used to say that’s due but great to be with this guys I’m your humble correspondent Michael Tanner coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas. Joined by the executive producer of the show, the purveyor of the show and the director, publisher of the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com. We’re backstage. Have a good break. [00:00:47][31.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:47] Oh, it was unbelievable. That spends time with my grandson, my daughter, my son and my spouse. [00:00:53][6.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:54] EJ and I got a little bit of a son in Florida, One of the last places you could still get sun this time of year is interesting. I’ve never done a Christmas in Florida, but definitely would like to do it again. [00:01:03][9.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:04] So we’re going to have a fantastic year. Buckle up. It’s going to be energy in entertainment. [00:01:10][6.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:11] It’s going to be absolutely unbelievable. We have an absolutely great menu lined up OPEC. We’re going to keep it a little more general today. Markets are sort of, you know, as we record this on on Tuesday, the second things are still kind of warming up for the new year. We do have markets open a little bit, but, you know, tomorrow is really going to kind of be the big day when everything starts rolling out. So today’s stories a little more general. We’ll start out with OPEC’s influence on oil prices to remain significant in 2024. Next up, Qatar Energy. ExxonMobil moving forward, global pass, LNG work, and then finally, energy market outlook. What can we expect in 2024 still? Then talk me out quickly, cover what’s going on in the oil and gas markets, what we’ve seen kind of over the past week and a half, and then quickly discuss the Willow project. That was kind of the big finance news that got announced recently. ConocoPhillips announcing their final investment decision to go ahead and move forward with that project. So we’ll opine on that a bit and then we’ll let you guys get out of here, get your new year started. Right, guys, Again, as always, we appreciate you checking us out and all the news and analysis you are about to hear analysis in quotes. But so for what it’s worth, you can find that all energy news, but not in the best play. [00:02:24][73.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:25] entertainment. [00:02:25][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:26] Or energy and oil and gas news doing the team do an outstanding job of making sure that website stays up to speed with everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear. When it comes to the energy business we are gearing up for Nate. We will be there live. Recording Podcast February 2nd. No. What is it? Sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth. Come check us out. We’re going to be there going to multiple podcast. Good morning. If you’d like to be on the podcast, reach out to us Nape at Sandstone, or we’ll have the other description below who will get everybody access to that. You can. We’ll have a little form, you will do it. We’ll do it form style. So we, we just, we come up with this stuff live. We love it. So we’ll have a little form. Check that out. If you want to be on the podcast, it’ll be great. We’re going to have it. It’s going to be 24 seven. Run it, guys. You know it’s going to be unbelievable. Check us out, Nape. You can also find us this podcast. Wherever you get your podcast, you can visit the website EnergyNewsBeat.com to also see all of the show notes. You can check out the description below to see timestamps, links to the articles, everything that you need to know about the episode. You can check us out. Also on YouTube, we’re going to push YouTube in 2024 so dashboard.energynewsbeat.com. That’s our oil and gas data platform. A lot of good stuff upcoming on that so we’ll be ready to see but I’m going to Brett those too. Where do you want to begin? [00:03:44][78.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:44] Hey, let’s start off with our buddies over there at OPEC, and I want to give a shout out to the Irene Slav. What I absolutely love Irene is she is an absolute hoot. Arena slam it substack dot com. OPEC’s influence on oil prices to remain significant in 2024. Mike, I just want to read these three bullet points real quick. Fears lower demand and rising non-OPEC supply threatens the OPEC cuts. Bullet point number two U.S. oil producers took everyone by surprise this year, adding 1 million barrels in daily output. Though U.S. oil, OPEC’s share in the global total may have fallen because of the cuts, but it’s still pretty solid at 27% of the total. This is going to be the only time that I quite honestly may disagree a little bit with Irena. No, I’m going to talk to her next Monday on the international show with our Mayan calendar. And it is a great group. But David Blackmon and everybody else, damn it, Nina, here’s where I disagree a little bit. Oh, pick is losing the ability to manipulate prices because of the Dark Fleet and BRICS. BRICS is now really trading outside of the. Petrodollars. And there’s nothing in this next year that’s really going to show that BRICS is going to have their pricing matrices priced into the dollar, that you’re going to see the demise of the U.S. dollar kicking in with the pricing matrices stabilizing out under BRICS, That’s still yet to be determined, but they don’t have that handled yet. [00:05:39][114.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:41] Yeah, I mean, obviously the dynamics of OPEC plus have have stumbled a little bit with the addition of BRICS, if only because of the fact that there seem to be different. I love what I mean A does here is points out that, you know, the non-OPEC that first bullet point, non-OPEC supply threats are almost more important than the cuts happening elsewhere of OPEC. Now, you have to take us off the table. As she aptly points out, we’ve done incredible job of adding barrels to the market, a little over 1 million barrels per day added back to the market. That’s one thing you won’t hear Joe Biden talk about on the campaign trail. You know, he’ll he’ll he’ll leave that convenient fact out that he was responsible for adding 1 million barrels of oil to the U.S. market. Kind of crazy. [00:06:26][45.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:27] It is crazy. But let’s give a shout out to our great oil and gas industry because the regulatory legislation, through regulatory actions taken by this administration have been horrific and the consumers getting it in the drive thru track, they’re getting hit in the back of the head with a shovel so hard by this administration’s regulatory actions, their price for energy is gone through the roof and they get hit in the back of the head with the shovel. They’ve got to put their eyes back in their head, go around. [00:06:55][28.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:56] It’s a horrifying I say it tongue in cheek because the cost of energy has also then risen, even though oil And we even though we’ve added 1 million barrels to the market, energy costs for everybody have risen. So it’s you know, I’m you know, we can thank Hinds 57 for that. So I think OPEC’s you know, opec+ is. [00:07:15][18.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:16] Large is a mud. [00:07:16][0.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:18] OPEC plus I think is really in an interesting position. They can continue to cut, cut, cut, cut, cut. And as we sit here right now, oil’s 70 bucks, not even some I mean, not even a fool. But, I mean, the only thing that me and I hate to say this, the only thing it’s going to save oil prices. And what I mean, save I mean, get it back to the 90, $100, $120 oil prediction that everybody had. I mean, let’s be very clear here. Everybody, you know, quarter three of 2023, every talking head was saying 90 to $100 oil. As we stand today, in 2024, oil is 70 bucks. And the only thing that can possibly get us there is a full blown Lindsey Graham style war with Iran, which nobody wants and we should avoid at low cost. [00:07:59][41.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:00] That man needs to be run out of town. [00:08:02][2.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:03] He’s been lobotomized. He’s been. [00:08:05][1.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:05] Lobotomized. What a chatter had. Lindsey Graham being a Republican is absolutely a chatter head. And Lindsey Graham, if you’re listening to this show, you’re invited to come on this podcast. I will fly out and talk to you. I want to find out what you’re thinking. I want to look under your toupee and find out. [00:08:24][18.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:24] I’d prefer to talk to his stunt double. I mean, he’s been lobotomized, but that’s beside the point. Point is, outside of that horrific thought of war with Iraq, direct conflict with Iran. [00:08:33][9.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:34] But Iran. Iran had their destroyer go into the Red Sea and oil burned for 12 hours. And so now you and I have talked about this last year. You can see wars break out and it really does not impact it. Here’s where I’m going to say it does impacted if Lindsey Graham gets his way because the I Iran is shipping everything that they can not in U.S. dollars you eliminate their man oil and then have. Are you raising your hand? [00:09:10][36.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:10] I’m with you. No I’m just saying I’m with no point of the matter is I’m you know, all that being said do markets open today at at, you know, six, 7 a.m. this morning markets open 730. What happened or excuse me, 830 hour time? We’ve seen an absolute tumble from 7 a.m. up at 70, a little north of 7350 all the way to currently trading here. I mean, it’s about 11:30 a.m. here on Tuesday, 7064. [00:09:36][25.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:38] And hang on, I think this is some of the politicians they’re doing some insider trading in. They called up and they had the stock market reduce it so they can short the market. [00:09:50][12.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:51] I mean markets are down significantly. Don’t don’t get me wrong and come on you you they’re all just excellent traders. Oh, all right. Very interesting. We love I read to go check this one out. What’s next? [00:10:04][12.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:05] Let’s go to guitar ExxonMobil moving forward with Golden Pass LNG. We’re. This is huge. I always love seeing guitar and other foreign countries buying our great assets. Japan has bought a lot of the LNG facility so they can nail down theirs. They just announced that last month as well too. Then you have total energy buying enough for two nuclear reactors. They have bought in the ERCOT, but you’re not going to see that. I’ve got a bet with you right now. We’re going to write this down. I bet you can’t find it in their earnings report coming up. But it’s going to be interesting to see where they bury that. Now, let’s go to this article. State owned Qatar owns 70% stake in the Golden Pass project with capacity more than 18 M TPA and offtake 70% in the capacity on long term contracts. 30% is only what ExxonMobil do. You know that that is horrific for energy security for the U.S.? [00:11:19][74.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:20] Yeah. No, it’s it’s it’s one of the few areas where I agree with our favorite Senator, John Fetterman. I mean, he’s he was all over the U.S., the the Nippon Steel taking over U.S. Steel. He was all over. I mean, he he’s obviously come out of whatever sickness he had. And he’s like he’s like thinking it’s crazy. [00:11:37][16.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:37] Hey, do you think on a conspiracy theory he actually signed up for the chip for me? LONG No, I’m kidding. But I don’t know. I mean, wow, where did this come from? [00:11:47][9.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:47] You’re on the chip. If anyone’s on the chip, it’s you. [00:11:50][2.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:50] Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. [00:11:52][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:52] Very little we could point to. About six months ago, Duke got the chip involved. It’s been off the rails since, but no, it’s. It’s very fascinating. And the government and specifically the Federal Trade Commission is going to have the they’ve got a they’ve got their hands full right now. I’ve heard rumblings that they don’t like this Permian consolidation going on and that the Exxon Pioneer deal, the Chevron Hess deal and all of these other ones are going to get a huge scrutiny. Look, from from the FTC from the standpoint of is this to do they think this is too much consolidation? I do believe it is, but we can discuss that in another look. The point is the problem is they’re too busy worrying about if Chevron should buy has to American companies. When you’ve got Japan coming in, buying up all our stuff. I mean, we like Japan. I got nothing against Japan, but we should be owning U.S. Steel. You’ve got Qatar energy coming in, swooping up. You know, one of our Sabine Pass is one of our most important infrastructure, transit for natural gas. And now we’re going to take the biggest export terminal available near that. And we’re going to hand it over to Qatar because, oh, yeah, they’ve got our best interests at heart for sure. I know guitar has never been there, but. [00:13:02][70.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:03] I’m going to keep my passport updated so I can move there. Here’s one of the things that please. [00:13:07][4.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:08] Oh, yeah. Shooting this show at midnight. [00:13:10][1.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:10] Yeah, we’ll see. We’re off and running, baby. Hey, one of the things, though, is the Venezuela and Ghana item going off because that impacts Chevron and it has big time and it’s not being covered in the main news. It’s like, ho hum. I mean, Venezuela, come on. It’s overtaking all of our American oil companies that are out there drilling in Guyana, some of the largest areas in the world. [00:13:43][32.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:43] Yeah. And I don’t think we’ll that’ll actually I mean, it’s more you know, they still I’m not too worried about the Venezuela call. [00:13:51][7.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:51] Maybe he’s meeting with Russia. He’s signed the deal he’s done some more things. So you’re gonna. [00:13:59][8.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:59] Coordinate that meeting between Putin and Mastro. [00:14:02][2.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:03] Actually is kind of funny you mention that because Armando asked me this morning if I was on the plane with the Venezuelan and Brazilian presidents and Putin. And I didn’t say, by the way, if it did happen, Putin would have said that the US sanctions don’t matter because he doesn’t mind. It’s mind over matter. [00:14:22][19.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:22] Maybe mind over matter. All right. What’s next? [00:14:24][1.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:25] Okay, let’s go to the last one, the energy market. I love this one. From what logic? What logic did an outstanding job of this article is outstanding from reassessing the energy economics around the world. COP 28 really threw in some ahead busting going around in there. The world is waking up. The natural gas is going to be needed. I did talk to Hugo Kruger. That podcast is coming out. He’s out. He was in Paris when I interviewed him and he’s out of South Africa. South Africa is almost all coal, so King Coal is back in big. We’re going to see a resurgence of nuclear. Everywhere except in the U.S. you’re seeing the big interconnect between Denmark and England that has now come in. England is now importing big amounts of energy from France. And nuclear. Nuclear resurgence is coming back into France. They are now rebuilding some of their. They’re only at 50% capacity on their nuclear fleet. So you’re also going to see a huge just like you’re seeing with those other energy thread that we had running in today show the natural gas rolling back in into being very, very important to the global market. China this morning had just put out that they have gone from 20 billion in their export in their capacity for natural gas to 50 billion. I have to go through the numbers again, but it’s incredible. Took them 20 years to get to 30. Took them three years to get to 40. And they’re going to be there in a year to get to the 50. Unbelievable amount of natural gas China is putting out now. [00:16:25][120.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:25] I mean, I agree with everything you said. I think it’s going to be a real interesting year for energy to be a great year for energy. I think we’re going to see again and we’re going to see natural gas continue to win is the fuel of the future despite everybody’s you know, despite all the cops, you know, where’s COP 30 this year or next year? [00:16:43][17.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:43] Don’t know and don’t care. I don’t know that it’ll actually happen. And I’ll go into that in a different podcast. But there’s a lot of things happening on that numbering that and that’s a teaser. You heard it here second know anyway. [00:16:59][15.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:59] Now absolutely love it. Well, you got anything else? [00:17:01][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:02] Oh, no. We’re going to have a great year. Michael. I want to give everybody a shout out for a thank you for everyone that gave us great feedback. Michael, I want to give you a shout out because your deal spotlight is finally coming to fruition and our feedback on your expertise is phenomenal. Great job. [00:17:23][20.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:24] I don’t know who you’re talking about, but. [00:17:25][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:26] It’s your dog. [00:17:26][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:27] Nice job if you really need it. Sandy over there. But no, I appreciate it. Great stuff coming out. We’ve got some some cool new sponsors. We’re excited to announce some awesome projects within it. And if you are looking to do any sort of content marketing, if you guys are needing to push whatever company you got, give us a call, guys. Questions and energy Newsweek.com. And one. [00:17:47][20.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:47] Last thing. [00:17:48][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:48] Well, we’ll help you up. What do you got? We got finance up next. [00:17:51][2.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:51] Oh, yeah. But Nate is where deals happen and energy News Beat is where Rich happens. [00:17:57][5.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:58] Oh, man, you love, right? [00:17:59][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:00] I love that one. Even if I am their money. After you. [00:18:03][3.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:04] All right, Billy, I think there’s you know, as we mentioned, we’re recording this about 1130 here on the second we we’ve seen markets specifically S&P 500 drop about a half a percentage point. NASDAQ tumbling about 1.4 percentage points, mainly off the back of what was an insanely strong 2023. I think everybody saw recession coming, yet we finished 2023 visibility last week, very close to market highs. You know, we’re a little off that today. We’ve seen ten year yields rise by about two percentage points. Dollar index up about three or four quarters of a percentage point. We’ve seen Bitcoin now crossing 45,000. That’s up 1.9 percentage points as a result of all that market strength. We’ve seen crude oil, as we mentioned overnight, weakness or overnight strength mainly on the back of of the Iran U.S. shadow conflict going on right now in the Red Sea. But all that seem to be wiped away with with the strong dollar. Oil now currently down about 1.6 percentage points from that opening here on the second 7081 as we currently trade Brant oil only down about a half a percentage point, 7781. Natural gas actually trading up a little bit relative to where it opened or relative to the close yesterday, but still down overall on the day, $2.56 currently. So they do see natural gas slightly pop a little bit. I thought there was two things that were interesting to do. One, well, we heard over what was really a quiet, you know, last week, to be honest, we would have come live if there was anything crazy that happened. Really, the only thing that I saw that drops to was was the ConocoPhillips announces the final investment decision as a go for as a go for the Willow Project, which is located on Alaska’s North Slope, that this is following the approval Biden of the NEPA Trans or the NEPA submission done and by the state legislature and federal government kind of approving this permit. There’s a there’s a couple interesting. You know, we had I you know, both senators, Dan Sullivan and Lisa murkowski who were excited and they say they’re grateful for the Supreme Court for being able to spend that out. You know, this is. Estimated to do at peaks do 180,000 barrels of crude oil per day. They’re estimating somewhere between eight and 17 billion, a new revenue for the federal government, state of Alaska and the state in Alaska, Native communities. You want to talk about that, that you you want to talk about UBI. Alaska has been giving oil checks out for a while. They’re about to go up because talk is going to come in. This is one of the you know, they’re you know, we could talk maybe in another podcast about some of the last untouched. Just huge amount of reserves that are available is pretty much we found it all. I mean, not that we didn’t know it was here but there’s we’re running out of these type of locations. This is one of them. The Ninth Circuit appeals going ahead and denying that plaintiff’s request for an injunction. So they’re able to go ahead and say, let’s move forward. That’s going to be a big projects. Do we know you’re you’re you’re sensitive and you love the North Slope up there? [00:21:01][176.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:01] I do. My granddad, he’s one of the chief geologists that discovered it up there. And I got some really cool pictures of him stepping off the old helicopters. And I love me some Alaska. [00:21:12][10.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:13] Like, one of these days you’ll be bear country will literally be Alaska. Right now it’s not. [00:21:18][4.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:20] Got an overpopulation of bears hanging around. [00:21:22][2.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:22] Yeah. No, absolutely. So what else you got, Stu? [00:21:25][2.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:21:26] Oh, it’s just going to be a fantastic year, dude. [00:21:27][1.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:21:28] It’s going to be great. We appreciate everybody staying with us. We’re excited for 2024. We’re back. Lots of energy. We’re ready to go. We’ll be with you all through the craziness in 2024, guys. With that, we’ll let you get out of here, get back to work. Have a great week, guys. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:21:28][0.0][1235.5]

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