France’s surprise inclusion of a 2030 target for renewable energy production in its energy and climate plans appeared to diffuse a long dispute with the European Commission, but experts are struggling to understand what the new figures actually mean.
In its 300-page final National Energy and Climate Plan submitted on 10 July, France included a target of consuming approximately 570 TWh of renewable energy in 2030.
The European Commission had criticised the initial draft NECP (submitted in November 2023) for not identifying the share of final energy consumption from renewables. Previously, Paris had instead included a ‘decarbonised energy’ 2030 target, which counts energy from renewable and nuclear sources.
Experts have expressed confusion with the document, saying it is hard to assess how the 570 TWh target was derived.
Although this target for overall renewable energy consumption was inserted in the 2024 final NECP, there were no corresponding updates to the forecast energy from individual renewable sources, such as wind, solar, and renewable heating.
These figures remained unchanged from the December 2023 draft NECP and the non-legislative French energy and climate strategy (SFEC) published last November.
Moreover, the French renewable energy target is expressed in absolute TWh units rather than as a percentage of consumption, as per the EU renewables target.
When asked by Euractiv, the French Energy Ministry declined to specify what percentage of France’s final energy consumption would be met by renewables.
During a press briefing on Thursday (11 July), the ministry would not confirm media assessments, used by some experts, that the updated NECP would deliver a renewable share of 41.3% of final gross energy consumption by 2030 (versus an EU requirement to reach 44% for France, 42.5 % for the EU)
This figure was derived by comparing the 570 TWh target with the NECP’s forecast of 1,381 TWh final energy consumption by 2030.
The Energy Ministry said this “does not correspond to the methodology used to determine the share of renewable energy in [gross] final energy consumption” but would not clarify the correct figure.
However, France has previously used this same methodology. In the 2019 version of its NECP, France stated that it would reach a 33% share of renewables in its final energy consumption, based on consumption of 120 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of energy, of which 41 Mtoe came from renewables.
Double counting?
According to independent climate consultant Stéphane, “I don’t see how we can arrive at 570 TWh of consumption without double counting.”
Summing the draft NECP’s 2030 projections for energy from solar, offshore and onshore wind, hydro, biogas and renewable heating and cooling gives a figure of 546 TWh of renewable energy.
Jules Nyssen, President of the French renewable industry association Syndicat des énergies renouvelables, was open to this possibility. “I’m not sure there’s no double counting. For example, renewable gas is a component of heat,” Nyssen told Euractiv.
The Energy Ministry acknowledges this complexity, noting that “the energy system is not a totally linear system” and telling the press that “there are energy sources that are used to produce other energy vectors.”
The ministry cited biogas as an example, ” which can be used to produce heat, and some of the heat comes from electricity that is itself renewable.”
Loss of influence in Brussels?
This lack of clarity may suit the French government. Top politicians, such as the Economy and Energy Minister Bruno Le Maire and former energy minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, had previously made high-profile statements that they would not abide by the European Commission’s demand for a renewables target.
However, some stakeholders are sceptical that the government’s concessions in the final NECP will be sufficient. “It’s not certain that the European Commission will be satisfied,” observed Nyssen.
France’s concession to the Commission could also be interpreted as a loss of influence in Brussels, as it came during a period of political instability, which may damage the country’s ability to assert its interests in Brussels.
The country has been pushing for future EU targets for 2040 that cover both nuclear and renewable energy sources. As part of this effort, France has been leading an ‘EU nuclear alliance’ of countries with nuclear energy in their energy mix.
[Edited by Donagh Cagney/Alice Taylor]
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