What are the odds that Israel will attack Iran?

Assessing the odds of Israel attacking Iran involves looking at various forms of information, including expert analyses, market predictions, and statements from relevant parties, as of October 10, 2024. Here’s a synthesis based on the data provided:

Market Predictions and Betting Odds: There has been a range of probabilities mentioned across different platforms. Initially, prediction markets like Polymarket suggested a 76% chance of an Israeli military response by a specific Friday (presumably soon after the missile attacks by Iran). Another source mentioned a 90% chance by another specified date, indicating a high expectation for some form of retaliation or military action. However, these odds can fluctuate based on real-time events and diplomatic maneuvers.

Expert and Analyst Insights: Defense analysts like Ron Ben-Yishai suggested that Israel might not target critical assets like nuclear or oil facilities to avoid triggering a full-scale war, focusing instead on lesser targets to respond without escalating further. This indicates a strategic choice towards containment rather than an all-out attack, but still constitutes a form of military action.

Public and Political Statements: There’s been a strong indication from Israeli officials and the sentiment on platforms like X that some form of response was not just likely but planned, regardless of the immediate provocation from Iran. This suggests that while the form and intensity of the attack might be debated, the likelihood of some military engagement was high.

Diplomatic and Strategic Considerations: The U.S. has urged restraint, particularly against striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, suggesting a complex diplomatic backdrop where direct military escalation might be deterred by global powers. However, this doesn’t preclude targeted or symbolic strikes.

Given this information:

Immediate Retaliation: There was a high probability (over 70% at certain points) for some form of military action shortly after Iran’s missile attack, but this might not equate to a full-scale war or an attack on critical Iranian infrastructure.

Long-term Escalation: The ongoing tension, strategic statements, and the history of covert actions suggest that while an all-out war might be avoided due to its global implications, Israel engaging in military actions against Iran, whether direct or through proxies, remains a recurring theme with odds that could be considered moderate to high depending on the timeframe and definition of “attack.”

Current Status: By October 10, 2024, if there had been no significant military response reported by then, it might imply either a delay in action, a shift towards diplomatic solutions, or a more covert form of retaliation that hasn’t been publicized.

In summary, while there was a strong likelihood of some military response from Israel following Iran’s missile attacks, the nature, scale, and timing of this action remain fluid based on ongoing developments and strategic decisions influenced by both internal Israeli politics and international pressures. The odds of an attack, therefore, could be described as significantly probable but with variables around its intensity and target. Always consider the date of inquiry since geopolitical situations evolve rapidly.