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The Harsh Reality of the Global Energy Transition

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Michael Tanner: [00:00:09] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024 edition of the Daily Energy News Beat stand up. Here are today’s top headlines. First up, the harsh reality of the global energy transition. Whose spicy next step across the pond? Saudi Arabia expected to cut its official selling price to Asia for the month of October. Next up African state to join BRICS bank. That would be Dun dun dun Algeria. Interesting. Next up, thanks to Governor Murphy’s green energy nightmare, New Jerseyans electric bill have doubled. Interesting. Love a good eye cover art there of some offshore wind. And then finally a great piece by friend of the show, Jeff Krimmel Oil rigs are where they were around Covid. A super interesting look at kind of the overall macro oil and gas economy stool then toss to me. I quickly could cover what happened in the oil and gas markets the past two days. We kind of saw prices go down then as we took yesterday off or excuse me as we took Monday off from the show at. Then we also saw interestingly, Talos Energy CEO suddenly resigned and a interim chairman of the board was named as the interim CEO while they consult with an executive search firm. Goes to tell me that this maybe was a little bit unplanned. So we will dive into all that and about chips, guys. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. First of all, did you have a great Labor Day? We hope everybody did with first off want to say thank you to our oil and gas workers who didn’t take Labor Day and were out there working away. We appreciate everybody who got up this weekend in work studios. You have a good one. [00:01:47][98.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:47] I sure did, I believe it or not. At my age, roofing and then working underneath the other house. So I’m having a lot of fun. I’m sorry, is all get out, but I’m having fun. [00:01:57][9.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:58] Making sure your place is ready to go when the new star flying. [00:02:01][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:01] Oh, absolutely. I got a bunker, baby. Got him in a bunker. Where do you want to begin? Let’s go to the first story here, Michael. Harsh reality of global energy transition. I really like this story from Robert Rapier. He is at Rrapier.com now. First off Michael what is your impression of the energy transition. It’s it’s like going from fossil fuels to renewables correct I mean that’s what you think it. [00:02:30][28.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:30] We’re going from fossil fuels to renewables. And now it’s swinging back. And we’re meeting somewhere in the middle at natural gas. [00:02:36][5.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:37] Naturally having nuclear. And I think this is really funny because he he lays this out. The concept of the energy transition emerged at the 1973 oil crisis and was widely popularized by Jimmy Carter, who was the worst president of all times until and a drum roll Joe Biden during this time. Let’s take a look at this. The data shows that in the nine of the ten past years, overall energy demand outpaced the ability of the renewables to keep up with that demand. The only exception was in 2020, when the Covid 19 pandemic happened. So what is happening is the amount of energy that we’re adding to the grid is only new energy being added. Michael. And this is a validation point of my theory that the more we go renewable, the more fossil fuels we’re going to be using because it’s all in energy. Growth is what they’ve been doing at what cost? [00:03:40][63.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:03:41] Yeah, I mean, I think it’s first off, this is a shout out Las Vegas money show. Lots of great oil and gas companies. They’re showing off the the power of investing directly in oil and gas. So we love that good. We love that play. Shout out to all the oil and gas companies there. But no, you’re absolutely right. If I mean it’s just basic mathematics, if your overall demand is if your overall consumption is increasing, yet the share of renewables is less than the overall growth, something is making up that gap. And we know it’s not nuclear because we can’t get those approved here. We know it’s not coal because that has dropped precipitously over the past few years. So the answer is drumroll please. Natural fuels in this case specifically natural gas. [00:04:22][41.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:23] Exactly. But if you take a look at the world map, India and China are going through the roof with coal, which is considered fossil fuels. And look at Germany is now increasing their coal. So wow, this was a great article. And it’s a validation again of me being brilliant. I mean, excuse me of my accidental stumbling into that, that theory. Let’s go to the next story here. Saudi Arabia expected to cut its oil prices to Asia for October. Michael, I have always said I’ve applauded the Saudis for taking care of Saudi Aramco first in Saudi Arabia first. You know, if every country watched out for themselves, it’d be a better world. Saudi Aramco is the world’s top crude oil. Oil exporter is expected to cut the official selling price. OSP. Michael. Official selling prices in OSP. I love that acronym that it’s like wow. Oh SC what the hell was an OSP official selling price of all its crude grades to Asia in October, including the survey of five refining services sources. Three of these, Reuters expects to the flagship Saudi grade Arab light to be at 50 to 70 barrel lower than the September. Pretty amazing when you sit back and take a look at where this is also playing out, is you’re seeing Russia, I am shocked is applying and they are looking at their production numbers to match the OPEC plus production cut. I’m like, whoa, excuse me. Russia’s going to try to play in that and be and and follow the production cut. No way. [00:06:08][105.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:08] Well it’s because it’s being clear that sanctions don’t work and they don’t need to abide by whatever the sanctions are because they can just they’re getting whatever the market price is. So we’ll leave that at its peak. Yeah. I mean, this is pretty expected for October. It looks like demand is coming in slightly weaker than we would have thought. Obviously there’s still a demand. Demand is growing on a month over month basis. But we’re not seeing the growth. The margins on the margins. It’s going a little bit down. So you know it’s only a 50 to 70% cut I or a 50 to 70% cut. So I wouldn’t read too much into that. Obviously this has a little bit do with the fact that some of these other countries are it’s being widely acknowledged now, not just in the inner circles like this podcast and other ethers out there, but now it’s being officially mentioned by OPEC that people really aren’t following the, you know, output quotas that OPEC has put out there. There’s something to be said. And and talk about rumor the rumor mill spicing up still. I mean there’s a lot of interesting analysis out there saying that Saudis getting ready to actually turn the taps back on, which would be great for the consumer. We’d see oil prices go down, precipitously. It would be devastating to the US shale business, obviously, as they’ve basically slowly, as we’ll cover in this last hour to bring. [00:07:18][70.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:19] Up and. [00:07:19][0.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:19] We are limping by. [00:07:20][0.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:20] You bring up an interesting point because Ted tailing into that the next story is African state joins BRICs bank. If they were going to let’s put a little conspiracy theory hat on Michael. And you love you know I love a good conspiracy theory. [00:07:35][14.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:35] I didn’t wait you you’re putting the hat on. I figured you you hadn’t you haven’t taken it off in months. [00:07:39][3.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:40] Oh, no, I know the you putting the hat on. I mean, I’ll. [00:07:43][3.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:43] Put it on. I’ll put the conspiracy hat. [00:07:44][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:45] On and and we’ll take a look at BRICs. African state joins Bric bang Algeria says its admission to a significant step to further integration of the global financial system. This is huge because guess who else has stepped up. And as applied to this Turkey. Turkey is absolutely a mess. And you know, with them being in NATO and all of the problems that Turkey is problem. This is a major thing. So the conspiracy theory would say is if the U.S., if Saudi Arabia wants to mess with the U.S. dollar, once these other countries pile in the BRICs monetary system and they plunge the oil market, oh, what is it going to do? It’s going to really hurt the U.S. dollar. [00:08:35][50.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:36] Yeah. Now, I mean, on on the back side of this, you know, Algeria, as this article points out, is a is a long standing, has a long standing alliance with Russia. So I can imagine a lot of what’s the quote unquote, new economic development that’s going on in Algeria is really their close ties with your friend Putin in the Kremlin up there. [00:08:55][19.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:55] Oh, absolutely. Russia is is all over Africa like we should be. Putin is a better political leader than the United States, do I agree? [00:09:05][10.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:06] Well, we’ll disagree on that one. But. [00:09:08][2.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:09] Who’s winning countries hearts and minds? Russia. [00:09:12][3.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:13] I don’t know if I don’t know. I don’t know if anybody should be. Countries should be allowed to govern for themselves, not exactly influenced by other countries. [00:09:19][6.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:20] But he is selling Russian products to Africa on unbelievable volumes. [00:09:26][6.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:28] And China is just building infrastructure around the around the globe to be nice. I mean, come on, everything comes with an attachment. [00:09:34][6.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:36] It does, and we’re not doing anything other than messing with people. [00:09:40][4.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:40] I’m not saying we’re I’m not saying we don’t put, you know, you know, military bases for free in other countries just for the sake of it. I’m saying, you know, when we talk about who’s winning the global influence, I mean, that’s like a catch 22. It’s like, who’s murdering the most people? It’s like, I don’t know, I wish nobody was doing any of it. [00:09:57][17.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:58] I couldn’t agree more. You and I are in 300% agreement. Let’s go to the next nightmare story. Thanks to Governor Murphy’s green energy nightmare. New Jersey. And. Electric bills have double a double Michael. First there was the beautiful poster child of Germany. Whenever you saw a windmill happily producing or a solar panel happily sitting there going, yay, I’m a solar panel! You saw Germany? Germany was the poster child of the energy transition. Well, the cost in Germany have quadrupled. The deindustrialization is now going on. You have New York, which is now well down this deindustrialization and moving to the renewables. Their prices in California are twice what Texas is. New Jersey is now heading to their level. Let’s go through some of these numbers here. New Jersey is already one of the most unaffordable states in the United States, is a quote from Testa. Now people are being hit with energy bills that are essentially doubled. And look, I get that it was a hot July, but it wasn’t that hot. Yeah, I love it. A 782 monthly dollar bill for a suburban house. Wow. [00:11:14][76.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:15] I love this quote. It’s what I called the Energy disaster plan. [00:11:19][3.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:19] I was going to read that next. The board cites in increase generation, cost and usage and ask its customers to contact their utility board right away and find an anomaly, and cannot determine an explanation. One time $175 credit program is available. So it’s kind of like they’re going to bill you, and if you don’t squeak, you pay it. [00:11:40][20.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:40] It’s it’s I guess what people are squeaking. I mean, I wouldn’t want this anyway. You know, it’s it’s the problem with subsidizing and directly subsidizing in order to force habit change if it’s against what the free market wants, things like this are going to happen. I mean, the invisible hand is invisible for a reason. As Adam Smith said, it’s not the visible hand because when you know, because none of us, me included, are smart enough to know what the correct mix of these things are. And maybe there is a there is a mix of renewables and, and fossil fuels that is good for everybody. I mean, look at you, for example, you’re somebody that’s basically 100% renewable in your little compound. You’re a walking oxymoron, but you do it because it’s available and it makes sense for your situation. The free market is decision has decided that, not necessarily government regulations. And you’re in Oklahoma, a country, a state that you would think would be anti renewable. [00:12:35][54.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:35] Right. But we’ve got hydro. You know I love me some hydro. Let’s go to the oil rigs or where they were around Covid. This one is from Jeff Krimmel I really like Jeff. Jeff is a cool cat. I found this article on his LinkedIn. We’ve got his LinkedIn. In the article in the show notes. Let’s go through some of these numbers. U.S. drilling rig counts where they were nearly three years ago. Rig counts today are where they were in late 2021. They climbed 33% to the end of 20. From the end of 2021 to the end of 2022. Then they fell 20% and then they’ve fallen another 6%. And if you look at the chart, you can go over there and look at that first bloom and go, well, there’s Covid. [00:13:23][47.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:24] It’s really interesting. And you take a look at where prices were relative to where when Covid was happening and the sentiment around where where, you know, prices were going to go relative to where Covid was to where they are now, it’s pretty unbelievable. You know, it’s I love this article that I love this image that he points out U.S. rig counts are going nowhere while the rest of the economy continues to progress. When you talk about the stock price of both ConocoPhillips, ect, U.S. nonfarm payrolls, GDP, dry gas production, U.S. crude oil production all up from a percentage standpoint, while U.S. rig count is absolutely zero now we’ve seen it rise and currently fall. I just think it’s super fast. This again, goes to show the dynamics of what’s going on. The oil and gas industry is is is tight inflation, I think is the big driver of this because inflation hit service companies the most. Because as an operator your goal is efficiency, efficiency, efficiency. You want to make sure that that your cost is as low as possible. Problem is, when the cost of materials, and specifically the cost of labor has gone up tremendously. And we can that’s where another discussion, where we talk about where the cost of labor was, where it is now, and why some of that has happened is that when labor. And so let’s not even go into if that’s good or bad that labor has gone up. We you could we could bring on people that to talk about both sides of that equation. I’m generally in favor of people getting paid more than last. So not just, you know, but the problem is that cost of labor generally gets immediately passed on to the oil companies. Okay. So now all of a sudden the prices have moved slightly, which they have. They’ve obviously gone up. But if the overall inflationary environment has gone up, that means the overall cost to drill a well has gone up. I can I can speak to it extremely cogently, just. Having looked at Afeez. Have you seen Afeez over the last, let’s just say four years. Did to to condense it down the same two mile lateral has basically gone up 30 to 35%, sometimes in the range of almost 50% year ranges by 30 to 40% on the top end. It’s almost gone up 50% from a cost. Well, the problem is there’s if, if, if on average your one assets are getting drilled up and there’s less and less availability for the average company, let’s just take out the Exxon’s of the world. The Chevron’s, the Eog’s the world. They’ve got enough tier one, quote unquote, inventory to last themselves. If now all of a sudden you’re trying to take 50% higher afy costs and 25% less productive oil and gas wells on average, remember, that’s on an average basis. You’re always going to have wells that perform above type curve. You’re always going to have well to perform below type. So now all of a sudden, if you’re averaging a lower pipe curve with a 50% higher cost, you’re going to be less incentivized to drill until I would say the stars align. And there’s a lot of reasons why you would drill a less productive well at a higher rate, a fee cost. You know, at some point it’s what you do as an oil and gas company. You have to you have to do something. But it’s part it’s also partly why you’ve seen M&A action pick up over the last two years, because on average, it’s cheaper to buy producing assets and just buy the production, then try to add it via drilling. And and there’s a lot of different reason for that. So I think it’s a convolution of the things I think inflation driving up labor cost was kind of the start of this whole shift to where oil companies have kind of found themselves right now. And and you could see it, oil prices are up almost 1,000% relative to I mean, they were negative at one point. So they’re up infinitely relative to where they were at negative prices. But you haven’t seen rig counts move that much. And I think it’s a it there’s a lot of underlying guinea pigs. But I think it all goes back to underlying inflation in service. Companies are really hurting themselves. And you know shout out to connection crew and JP Warren. He hosted these great get togethers. I was at one in Fort Worth last week and we were talking specifically about the role. The conversation was really he does these kind of guided discussions. Before dinner, we were really talking about private equity and how things have changed within that business around the oil, but that really wasn’t interesting. I was having a conversation afterwards with, I’ll leave the company out of it because I don’t want to out them. But it was it was a director of sales at a leading service company, and he was having a conversation. Two weeks ago, he was telling me with the CEO and owner of this company and, you know, oil companies use these service companies as piggy banks. All of these companies provide the service up front and then send you an invoice, right? Well, you don’t pay the invoice. That company, that service companies got to pay the labor, it’s got to pay the cost. And you’re not paying an interest rate on that. You wait 90, 120 days to pay your invoice. You basically got in free service. You’ve allowed the cash to sit in either your bank to accrue interest rates. And he was like the management team was just complaining that companies are using them as a piggy bank. [00:18:14][289.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:14] And BHP was one of the worst ones on the planet. I will go on record because as that working at a small company and we were putting in 1800 pads here and another 100,000 pads there, and then they would say they sent a note and said, oh, by the way, we are now going from 60 day paid and 90 day pay, and it’s great if you have a change order, it adds, the clock starts again. You’re like, what? [00:18:39][24.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:40] And as as that type of company, what’s your what’s the recourse for a service company to. There is none I mean, unless you’re Halliburton, unless you’re Halliburton and you have a diversification of customers. But let’s be clear, most service companies have 2 or 3 companies that they do the majority of the work for. If 90% of your business comes from I’m just picking a company, I’m not saying this company is right, but let’s just say 90% of your business comes from oxy, and oxy decides to go from 60 day to 90 day billing, and that means they’re really not paying for 120 days to complain to oxy. They they have choice in who they go from. You might not relative to where you’re inventory where all your your people are. It’s less harder for you to go find new customers than it is for a service or for an operator to go find new vendors. So there is this idea of kind of operator capture in that these vendors have really no choice but to play. Operators know this and chugging along. Ironically, one of the things he was saying is the smaller companies, you know, the non Publix or the really the smaller family, mom and pop shops actually are the better customers to work for because they pay on time. The problem is there isn’t enough volume. And that’s where you get this. You know, the larger service companies like working with the smaller companies because they’ll pay on time, but the volume isn’t high enough, especially if you’re a public service company to satisfy the capital market. So you’re in this constant tug in war. It was a really interesting conversation. [00:19:59][78.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:00] And project management and documentation and change orders. I lived and died by that. If you didn’t have. At all in line. You didn’t get paid? [00:20:09][9.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:10] No. Absolutely nil. And they’ll fight you because again, they had they have choice. That’s right. Superintendent. Well, let’s go ahead and jump over into the oil and gas finance side, guys, before we do that, as always, I want to give a quick shout out energy news beat .com. All our news and analysis comes from said websites. Doing the team do a tremendous job making sure it stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and check out the description below for all the links to the timestamps links to the articles, and you can also check us out on Substack. The Energy News Beat substack.com. Again, that’s energy news beat.com. [00:20:45][34.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:46] Hey, I was off for the past two days. We kind of saw a big swing in prices. You know we were down on Friday. We’re back up mainly on oil due to the fact that we saw some interesting things coming out of Libya. But let’s just run through top, top line numbers here. S&P 500 finished finished Friday actually up about 1.2 percentage points. Nasdaq up 1.2 percentage points, itself two and ten year yields flat dollar index basically flat. We saw Bitcoin up 3.5 percentage points today just hovering below 60,000 at 59,271. Crude oil jumps about three quarters of a percentage point to 74. Flat Brant oil about quarter of a percentage point 7725. Natural gas actually up $2.91 mainly. Or excuse me, $2, not $2. So which was up $2.91, 2.9 percentage points, up to $2.18. For natural gas mainly it’s that front month contract rolling over and it just trying to rightsize itself relative to where it will be hopefully, or where that strip price will be going in the fall. I got two interesting comments one why oil prices are up a lot to do with. I think there’s two bouts. Obviously, Libya has halted all of its exports, which on demand takes about a little over a million barrels off the market. The difference is OPEC has leaked now that they’re going to consider putting their production quotas and starting to dump more crude on the market. I heard rumors of it last month. Super interesting. Now that they’re beta testing it with a Reuters leak. And will end the market is obviously taking it seriously. What do you think of that, by the way? [00:22:15][89.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:16] I called smart before releasing it or anything else. What I still find amazing is that there that Russia is more in line of playing ball than I was before, because there’s 700 plus tankers that are in the dirt fleet that do not kill for production. That’s a lot of tankers, man. [00:22:39][22.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:40] And I mean, we’ve we’ve already seen some of this Libya oil production come back online. It’s pretty clear that it was a lot to it. It was a political game that was going on. Not necessarily. [00:22:50][10.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:51] And it was about who had control of the bank and who was going to do the money. [00:22:55][4.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:55] And absolutely. So it wasn’t anything that, you know, is it really is it really exactly what was gonna, you know, is that something’s going to hold out for the all time. No, the the leak really from six sources, according to Reuters, say that eight OPEC members are scheduled to boost output by about 180,000 barrels per day as part of the plan to begin unwinding their most recent supply cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, while keeping other cuts in place till the end of 2025. So, I mean, it’s not that much oil, but they’re going to the goal is they want to they want to unwind this and they’re going to have to start somewhere. It’s a decent spot. The other interesting thing that I found, stew that happened over, and this was a nice little Friday before Labor Day. Talos energy announces CEO transition. I’ll just kind of read you the top headline here because I think interesting things to note here. Talos Energy Inc. announced that Tim Duncan has stepped down from his role as president and CEO of active. August 29th, 2024. Interesting. So just boom right there going Joseph, A mills, who has served in the company’s board since 2014, will serve as interim president and CEO until a successor is placed. The company’s board of directors has initiated a search for a successor in partnership with a leading executive search firm. Super, super interesting. So okay, so who is Tim Duncan? He’s been the president and CEO of Talos Energy since 2012, where he helped found this private equity backed company in partnership with Riverstone. And I forget the other oil and gas or private equity company that was part of it, but I was one of them is definitely Riverstone. Tim Duncan has been long, long time CEO again and president of Talos. They’re a pure play Gulf of Mexico company. Which is a little rare in today’s market. If you can, you know, you can go look at their go look at their, the history that that that I mean, I don’t think that your stock price tells your history, but, man, if you could go pull their stock chart up since 2012, it was up over $400, and they’re currently trading at $11.47. So this quote that they have in here about, you know, how you know, the quote that they’ve got in here about how Tim Duncan was helpful in obtaining long term shareholder value? Maybe not. I mean, there was a $600 million equity infusion or equity, you know, position that was started out currently worth about two. Billion. So I mean, if they’ve done something there, I find the interesting things do that. There’s Joseph, a mills guy. So he’s a longtime board member today. So he’s just a national board guy ever since he left day to day active management in 2017, known as a turnaround and distressed asset specialist. So I don’t know what that means other than maybe. [00:25:29][153.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:30] They’re looking at this is a distressed. [00:25:31][1.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:25:31] Asset. I don’t know. Obviously nothing’s going to happen, but I think it’s financially one. The fact that they don’t have a replacement means that this kind of came out of nowhere, at least. Right? And that’s what’s funny. Usually if this was something negotiated by the board and, and Tim himself, they would have had somebody in place. Maybe something happened over the last two weeks that things became terrible. But the fact that they’ve got to go with an executive search firm also means that the depth of talent in their company wasn’t sufficient enough to call a replacement. Maybe they’ll maybe the see the CEO don’t know who that guy is or gal. Maybe they’ll end up choosing that person. But from on the on the face, this looks like this is a tenuous situation. You know, CEO randomly stepped down. Stock was only down two percentage points, and that was in line with where prices were on Thursday. So that’s not good. I mean, you know, Chipotle was down 20% when their CEO about Starbucks was up 20% when they hired the guy. So yeah, interesting. [00:26:27][56.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:26:28] Is. [00:26:28][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:26:29] Super interesting. So all right, Stu, what should people be worried about this week? That’s all I’ve got. [00:26:32][3.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:26:33] Well, I’ll tell you, I got to give NASA a shout out again. You gotta follow him on X. He’s put out another note and said the circumstantial evidence on the coordination between the Biden administration and the Iranian regime regarding Iran’s oil production and exports are overwhelming. Enforcing sanctions will not destroy economy because of U.S. policy in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Wow. He is a great resource. You need to follow him. Yeah, pretty sanctions don’t work because our policies are counterproductive. [00:27:07][34.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:27:08] They’re extremely counterproductive. All right. Well, we hope again everybody had a great Labor Day weekend. Thank you again to all of our wonderful oilfield workers who weren’t able to take that and had to labor on Labor Day. So again, we appreciate that. With that, guys, we’re going to let you get out of here, get back to work, start your week. Thanks for checking us out here on the world’s greatest podcast, Energy Newsbeat for Stuart Turner and Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:27:08][0.0][1590.1]

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