Daily Energy Standup Episode #244 – Weekly Recap: Global Energy Tensions: Europe’s Wind Power Challenge, Uranium Demand Surge, and Oil Price Warnings

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro01:31 – Europe’s wind power goal hits new snag: security09:00 – Uranium Demand Hits Decade High As Nuclear Renaissance Gains Traction 11:26 – World Bank warns oil price could soar to record $150 a barrel 15:34 – Russia’s Oil Exports Climb Despite Its Commitment To Cut Supply 16:53 – Russia poised to ‘sharply increase’ oil exports in November – Kpler 18:51 – EU looks to expand sanctions on Russia – Bloomberg20:35 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What is going on. Everybody, welcome into a special Saturday edition of the Daily Energy News Beat stand up here on this gorgeous as I mentioned, Saturday, November 4th, 2023, here for our weekly recap. I’ve got Stuart Turley here. He’s the director publisher of the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com is a busy week this week. A lot of good shows, a lot of good stuff. Nice four week is to be a good one. [00:00:39][24.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:39] It’s a fantastic week and I want to give a shout out to our folks that are reaching in. It’s just unbelievable. We have Tim Kaelin, who is a renewable energy management. There is a storage outfit that are a new start up. I don’t like storage or things that have to have subsidies and he’s got a renewable one. We also have Dan with Combo Curve. It’s coming out, so we got some big ones coming out this weekend. [00:01:11][31.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:32] Europe’s wind power goal Hits a new snag. Security. Michael. Do you remember when some random guy on Substack brought out the Nord Stream one and Nord Stream two and we found out that he was saying that? There’s even one theory that the Ukraine on a yacht parked it right over the Nord Stream one and two, and we’re going, Holy smokes, we’re not buncha morons. So let me just tee this up. Russia has had some subs going around the whole North Sea and there is a lot in here. Turbines have no barriers or surveillance. The guy I interviewed in this article says we don’t we check out at 5:00. Okay. What a great job, Michael. These guys are on on the field. They go out and they work in the field. It’s an hour out there by boat. If you you know, you do, you turn two screws, it’s lunchtime. Then you go back and then you get an hour trip back if you’re out by five. This is great work. Now, there’s two courts in here. [00:02:34][62.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:35] You have these offshore wind farms which are in international water or governmental water. But the government is saying that the operators should be in charge of security. But as you said, head of Nice have wind co-owned by and operated by Denmark based Orsted, the world’s biggest offshore wind developer. Our technicians go home at 5 p.m. as they should necessary working 24 seven shift. But something’s got to give you because they bring up you know, you’re right. If this quote he told Reuters, if the Russians wanted to cause damage, they very easily could go. We don’t do any modeling. It’s kind of wild to say in a public setting like crazy. [00:03:15][40.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:16] Now, let me throw this squirrel at you. This is an ugly squirrel that’s about to hit this one. Senator Lindsey Graham said we need to bomb Iraq’s oil production. He said that. So that would be in order to do, you know, damage to their cash flow. So he sit back and kind of go, we got all these people going after energy security around the world. And if we don’t do it and I don’t want us to believe me, I want this on record. I don’t want us taking out Iran’s oil. There’s ways of enforcing sanctions, but Israel might. So if you attack Israel and you take this escalating and then you take I’m serious, wind farm, even Hamas can get everything and take out North Sea here. This is all. [00:04:08][52.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:09] I disagree. I disagree a little with you. I’m going to disagree with you halfway. I’m not sure if the if the actual physical security I think Russia and Hamas has have better things to do than go blow up a wind farm that’s keeping three houses on line. What I think you’re seeing and what this and what this article points out is if you really go about halfway down here, developers like Worst and think government should take the lead and help provide billions of dollars needed to protect their infrastructure. This is a money grab, Stu. It’s it is. We were scared. It’s security. Well, we actually are losing $1,000,000,000 and need to make up for the fact that we’re losing billions on offshore wind farms by you have to now pay for security. [00:04:52][43.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:53] I think it’s fantastic. That is a very interesting point. And honestly, I’m going to blow. [00:05:00][6.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:00] Up a farm. Russia’s got better things to do than take their nuclear powered subs and roll them through Norway’s far. I don’t know that is seems. Be like they’ve got bigger fish to fry. [00:05:11][11.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:12] You’ve got a fantastic point. And I want to say, well done. You did good. And honestly, if you want to, if I was putting myself in Bhutan, I would say I don’t need to blow up a wind farm. I just let it. [00:05:27][14.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:27] Die. [00:05:27][0.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:28] Because it’s not sustainable. [00:05:29][1.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:30] Is that they’re not making money. They should build more by what’s more wind farms. [00:05:35][4.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:35] Yeah, they’re all not building anymore, and they can’t afford to maintain them. All right. The next story follows along with the other one with energy security in the North Sea. And when we talk about this article and says hostile political attitude to the North Sea and gas threatens energy security. So it’s not only the wind farms that are sitting ducks out there. And this is going to be I did not know how much actually is out there in the North Sea News a lot. But let’s talk about how much may leave. Let’s come in here. And I am going all the way down in here. And it says, The North Sea is the only basin where outlook for surplus of high specification of drilling rigs. Meaning other regions more competitive for business with longer work durations and higher rates and offer once these units leave the UK, increasingly it is unlikely that they will return. That was in the OED, which is the EU Energy UK 2023 Annual Economic Report. Let me get you some numbers. It is six wells have started drilling so far this year. At least one more is expected. Shell and one well, Pensacola, which started drilling in late 2020 to have recoverable resources of almost 1 million b. E. Here’s where the problem is. Once these leave, the amount of oil rigs that were funded in in project last year are down 32, 32 or even more, they’re coming down later in. [00:07:21][106.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:22] You have to layer in the political atmosphere that’s going on. You have to remember, you know, the Conservative Party over in the UK is not what we would consider the Conservative Party is so known. The fact that the Conservative Party right now still has a de facto 75% tax on oil and gas production, considering the windfall profits and the. That’s right. The Labor Party, who’s expected to win the next general election, only adds to that fear. There’s the you know, the Opposition leader, Colonel Starmer, has already said he’s going to maintain that 75% tax on oil and gas production. So right up there, as you mentioned, these rigs, when they when they get done with their drilling contracts, they’re leave it, they coming back. They mentioned they go down to Australia, South Africa, everywhere. [00:08:08][46.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:09] That’s right. Here’s some numbers. Over the last two decades, the UK oil and gas industry has produced 14.5 billion borrowing, but only 6.5 billion New field developments have been approved 45% reserves. This means the gap between total recovery and remaining reserves has closed significantly. The offshore rig count, Michael 283 producing fields of which 180 are expected to stop. That’s 45% of UK oil. At least 20 fields will stop producing this year. Those numbers are staggering. [00:08:54][45.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:55] Okay. Hey, we were talking about this before the show. Sometimes you got to be careful what you wish for. [00:08:59][4.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:00] Uranium demand hits decade high as nuclear renaissance gains traction. Pretty cool if we’re going to get to net zero, which is what my bank account looks like right now. You know, carbon net zero is my bank account. You sit back and kind of go, Yeah, we’re looking for sponsors out there, Michael. [00:09:21][20.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:23] What a way to solicit. [00:09:24][0.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:24] Oh, yeah. I’ve got a sign on my chest. Will work for sponsors Raising climate change awareness is a renewed interest in energy. I disagree with that. One line in there. It’s not will work for the climate change awareness. It’s people don’t want to you know, they want to be able to heat their homes and put food on the table. Nuclear is the only stable source out there for year in a row. Renewables on the grid. [00:09:52][27.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:53] Yeah, I’m using natural gas. What this article clearly states is that there’s an overwhelming shift in the mindset of people to embrace nuclear. Now, is it anywhere near what we need to be in order to achieve what you call this renaissance of carbon net zero? No, it’s nowhere close. We’re going to need. We’re going to fix the regulatory. You know, I was I saw, you know, Bill Maher, of all people, did a ten minute long exposé on his show last week, specifically talking about articles that we have brought up on news beat in terms of how much renewable and energy, specifically renewable energy is waiting in the regulatory system. You know, there’s, you know, hundreds you know, there’s thousands and thousands of megawatts waiting to be approved. If only we could get out of our own way. My only thing with with nuclear is that it will end up down this path. And it’s the reason why nuclear hasn’t been rolled out soon. It’s because they continue to die in the regulatory process. [00:10:44][51.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:45] Yep. Hey, I need to reach out to Bill. And since he was a watcher of the show, you know, you got to get a lot of it. Since he’s getting his energy tips from us. [00:10:55][10.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:56] He’s slowly getting red pilled You’ll see it. Give him about five years and he’ll be he’ll be he’ll he’ll switch sides. [00:11:02][5.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:02] I got to admit that Bill Maher used to be just a total squirrel. Now he’s only an ugly baby. And I mean, he’s really come a long way as far as a humanitarian goes. [00:11:11][8.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:12] I think what’s interesting, though, is there’s and not to get too off topic, but I think somebody like him has been fairly consistent over his entire career. It’s the landscape of politics that is slightly shifted beyond him. [00:11:22][9.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:23] Great point. I love what he’s saying. World Bank warns oil price could soared $150 a barrel. Why don’t I kind of get tickled at this story. It was just kind of crazy. And it starts out describing about the Hamas, the Israeli Hamas conflict going over there. And it says oil prices could sort of a record high, more than $150 a barrel if the war between Israel and Hamas leads to the full scale conflict. However, Michael, we’re all sitting here scratching our heads, but they take it one step further. They’ve got a little oh, what are those decoder rings that you used to get in Cracker Jacks here. Let me go through these. A small disruption scenario which the global supply would be reduced by 500000 to 2 million barrels a day, roughly the equivalent equivalent reduction seen during the first Libyan War. The oil price would range to $93 to 102 a barrel. You know, at least they backed it up with some data and stuff. Now let’s go to the medium disruption. 3 to 5 million barrels a day. If the global supply and oil prices would rise by 21% to 35%, taking in between 109 and 121, the large disruption would be let’s see here. Kind of like the Yom Kippur War, that just app, you know, the on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War would result in 56 to 75% increase between 140 and 157. [00:13:10][107.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:11] Man For Darren Woods, the economy would be doing great then. [00:13:14][2.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:15] Oh, you really good. Especially at his his house. So my thought process on this article is that they did actually they dig they get a crayon out better than Oklahoma State universities and it was they had some thought behind it. Now, do I agree with it? [00:13:31][16.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:31] No. I mean, here’s the thing. I think, you know, 500000 to 2 million barrel disruption, that’s a pretty big wide range for a small disruption. I think what’s interesting is the fact that what do we need to get to get to these disruptions, which, you know, is the real question, because we looked at what oil prices did today, seems to me that their small disruption scenario might not even come true. So we’re talking about a P90, P50, P10. What’s the the P 99 look? Because that may be where we’re headed in terms of in, you know, do I see the large disruption scenario 56 to 75% increase in prices to 140 157 or. Bill, I mean that seems to me we’re going to need to we need there’s going to be a need to see some escalation quickly and maybe the World Bank might know something we don’t. Is that coming? Who knows? I do think they probably laid out a broad range of scenarios, though. I do think the the the the as is scenario, which is we’re kind of in an ambiguous position, in my opinion is the one I’d vote for. [00:14:35][63.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:35] Right. One thing on these numbers, when I was looking at it, the medium disruption at 109 to 121 is based off of a 3 million to 5 million barrels a day cut in supply. And Iran, when Trump was in office, was doing 500,000 barrels per day. They’re now doing 3 million barrels per day. So if Kelcy Graham goes out and has his way and we bomb, he bombs, I don’t want to say the U.S. bombs, but he may. Boom. There you are. There’s that one item in that range. Does it go to the higher price? I don’t think so. For a long time. [00:15:17][42.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:18] Yeah, I just ran a 23. And me, Lindsey Graham and Darren Woods are actually related. So now I see. [00:15:24][5.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:24] No way. [00:15:24][0.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:25] Joke. That’s a joke. It’s a joke. [00:15:26][1.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:27] Yeah. I bet they’re still related to Janet Yellen. Inflation is chart. Inflation is transitory. Russia poised to sharply increase oil experts and no exports. But now you got me. Can’t talk exports in November. I’ll tell you what this is. Analysts linked the move to maintenance works in several refineries and higher global crude prices. Russia is likely to increase all exports in November. Here’s some key numbers, Michael. 200,000 barrels per day increase in next month, reaching up to 3.7 billion barrels per day. That’s a bunch. That is 1 billion barrels per day. That is a bunch. [00:16:13][45.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:13] And here’s that’s even I would say what’s interesting is this comes in the face of the fact that the next article you’re about to cover, which is or one of the articles that we’re looking at, is EU looks to expand sanctions on Russia. So I know I’m jumping ahead here, but just the sharp decrease between what’s going on on the actual ground level, which is. Keppler They’re a data provider. They’re not going to just say that without having some underlying facts. Well, then why would the EU be looking to increase sanctions? It’s almost as if what you’ve been saying this whole time is absolutely true. Do sanctions don’t work? [00:16:47][33.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:47] ABS Absolutely they don’t work. And all they do. Putin laughs. Eh, He laughs all the way to the bank. Let’s go ahead and go to the next article here. Russia’s oil exports climb despite commitment to cut supply. Here’s where I got a little tickled at this article here a little bit. What politicians actually tells the truth, right? So is it Novak, their head of their oil and energy? Is he over there going, Oh, yeah, okay, he’s going to do an imitation of Putin. So this is Stewart early imitating Novak, who’s imitating Putin? Hey, I will cut. Right. So if you sit back and kind of take a look, the four week average crude shipments out of Russia were slightly lower than 3.48 million in the week of October 29th, around 20,000 barrels per day compared to the four week average the week before. Here’s where it goes. Russia has pledged to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023. In a show of solidarity with its Opec+ partners, Saudi Arabia. They’re wanting to help increase the price. Because, Michael, if you remember our article a couple of days there, Saudi Arabia wants it at that 120 to 1 oh 7 to 120 mark. So Russia is is saying yes, but they’re doing the old is shaking their head. Yes. And your wife is saying, did you take the trash out and you’re going, Yeah. No, I didn’t. So it’s pretty interesting when you take a look at this. But what is pre pre this is a precursor to the other article. You gave a hint that the. [00:18:24][97.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:25] EU looks to expand sanctions on Russia. Why did the sanctions cross the road? It was to try to penalize somebody. And this was not what happened. I mean, so BLOCK has so far imposed 11 packages of restrictions against Moscow over the Ukraine. They are now talking about the next round, which would impact some $5.3 billion trade with Russia. This is nuts. It’s going to they’re targeting trying to skirt the bans through third countries. They can’t even, you know, manage their way out of a paper bag, let alone a crisis. [00:19:04][39.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:04] Yeah, I mean, I don’t want to make it seem like we’re just we’re standing up for Russia. It’s clearly what they’re doing in Ukraine is wrong, But it’s pretty funny to the level at which we will go to attempt to sanction somebody without really doing it. I mean, they’re trying to go after the loopholes in which they’re using to get around the current sanctions. But all this rules into it’s clear sanctions don’t work. And if they’re able to skirt and get access to the dark fleet, I guarantee now they’re going to have access and get around these. So it all comes back to say, you know, like you said, you can say you’re in you’ve passed sanctions on one hand without really enforcing anything on the other. [00:19:39][35.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:40] Oh, it’s like I’m President Biden and I use the word loosely because he doesn’t even know he’s president. And when you sit back and think he lessened, do you remember right before we were on this, right as he released these sanctions on the Nord Stream, he goes, oh, yeah, you guys go ahead, put in the Nord Stream. And then they did not enforce the sanctions on Iran in two different ways. And that went from. Trump. Under Trump, they were doing less than 300,000. They were lucky to do the 250000 to 300000 in Iran under Trump. Now they’re up there with Russia at the 3 million barrel mark, 3.5 million. This is nuts. [00:20:28][47.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:29] So now it really is nuts. And I think it goes to show, unfortunately, you’ve been right from the beginning. Sanctions don’t work. [00:20:29][0.0][1112.6]

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