Daily Energy Standup Episode #230 – Navigating Global Energy Dynamics: Insights on Climate, Economics, and Geopolitics

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Bill Gates Stuns Audience by Denying There’s a ‘Climate Crisis’

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:14] What is going on, everybody? Welcome into another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Standup here on this gorgeous Monday, October 16th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas, joined by the executive producer of the show, the purveyor of the show and the director and publisher of the world’s greatest website, energynewsbeat.com, Stuart Turley, my man, how are we doing today? [00:00:38][23.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:39] It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood. I woke up kind of frosty this morning. [00:00:42][3.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:00:43] Oh, it feels great, Stu. I can’t I can’t describe to you. It feels absolutely great. But don’t worry. The website is not frozen. We still have an absolutely banger of a show who’s been hard at work this weekend. Keep it In A first of Stu’s favorite entrepreneur, Bill Gates stuns audience by denying there is a climate crisis. Oh, my goodness. Do a dive into everything going on with one of his favorite tech leaders. Next up, the era of unquestioned and unchallenged climate change claims is over. The tide is beginning to turn a little bit. This is a great article by Alex Newman out of The Epoch Times. Next up, Bloomberg estimates economic cost of Iran. Israel conflict. Yeah, I mean, it’s not good. We’ve already seen oil prices rise. I think Bloomberg does a good job of breaking down mass dual coverage. Exactly what this cost of this war will be. Next up, Treasury bond auction runs into weak demand amid fears that soaring US debt will overwhelm Wall Street, as do likes to add his own little hint to the title in there. Decolonization Is that at the root? Who knows? Nice little picture of Janet Yellen there. I’m still quickly covering what happened in that Treasury bond auction and sort of how that ties in to what we’re seeing throughout the flow of the show. Next up, we’re going to go over to Russia, Russia’s oil revenues surge. And according to the IEA, who’s about six months late on this. So thank you, Governor. Thank you for stating the obvious. But but nonetheless, great article actually showing what those revenues look like. And then finally, Qatar warns that it will cut gas exports if the attacks on Gaza continue. What does this mean to US gas and LNG export? I mean, really the fallout from what is going on in the conflict in the Middle East right now is absolutely insane. It has an energy is oddly not at the root of it all, but one of the first one of the first things in the first order effects that could be affected by the fallout from this region. So, as always, we will cover it all too quickly. Toss it over to me. I’ll cover what happened on Friday. We really saw markets for commodities rise dramatically. Oil up five percentage points on the WTI basis. We saw natural gas fumble a little bit and then we’ll quickly cover what rig counts look like. A little bit of a change. We saw a little bit of a rise. So good for the drillers and we’ll let you get on out of here and start your Monday again. But before we do all of that, guys, remember articles and analysis you are about to hear are brought to you by the world’s greatest website, energynewsbeat.com. Check us out during the team. Do a great job of curating that website, making sure it stays up to speed with everything that you need to know. On the energy and oil and gas business. You can email the show questions@energynewsbeat.com. You can hit the description below and see all the different articles. The best way to support the show is to subscribe to us on YouTube at Energy News Beat We also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. You can also listen to the show via directly on energynewsbeat.com. Check out our Substack where everywhere guys files do an I on LinkedIn. Also, we’re starting on ENB Insider. This is a cool little beta program that we’re testing. Email us or hit up stu on LinkedIn. Hit me up on LinkedIn. If you’re interested in being a we would like to say the tip of the spear of the energy news. We’re calling in. Our ENB insider group will probably get together five or six times just to test out a concept that we’re thinking about doing in 2024, which is really going to put a select group of people on the tip of the spear when it comes to what’s going on in the energy business and really kind of foster that more of that community feel. We’ve heard for a lot of people that you guys want to connect with everybody. So hit us up, whether it’s at LinkedIn message do you can message me. You can also email us questions@energynewsbeat.com to get a hold and find out about that. I’m going to Bret. Those two. Let’s start us off. We got to talk to your favorite guy, Bill Gates. [00:04:13][210.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:13] Oh, my goodness. Michael, when I met Bill, you’re tired of hearing Nez. But he came up to my shoulder and his glasses were as dirty as you possibly could. Take your glasses, throw him in the driveway, scuff them up, and here’s has not had standing there. He’s like this. What a goop. All right, let’s start off with Bill Gates stuns audience by denying there’s a climate crisis. I’m going to just say this man’s a chowder head. Bill Gates, he’s worth estimated 7 billion and he is questionable on his business dealings, quote unquote. Michael, there’s a lot of climate exaggeration, said Gates at a recent event. The climate is not the end of the planet, so the planet is going to be just fine. Man, Where did this come from? This is the same guy that was going around saying that we’re going to die and you got to eat bugs and now we got to kill everybody else. [00:05:10][56.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:10] It wasn’t he funding things to do like cloud seeding, wasn’t he? Behind all mass eating stuff where they’re going to shoot stuff into the atmosphere. Nuke these up. He’s part of a puzzle from climate change. [00:05:20][10.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:21] Yeah, he’s part of the World Economic Forum, and he wants to be all about control. And so he’s bought most of the a lot of farming. He’s the biggest farm land owner in the United States, so he can control food. I’m serious, this guy. Here’s another quote. You can’t have climate policy when one party’s in charge goes full speed and then stops coal. These are 30 year investments in steel factories. Hey. Okay. [00:05:49][27.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:50] My question is, so what’s his incentive for saying this? You’re right. He was trying he’s amassed this farm, this largest private farmland, because he says that, you know, conventional farming methods have a negative impact on the environment. He’s come out and said climate change previously would be responsible for more human deaths than coal. That was pre 2020. My question is, what incentive now does he have to say this now? Yeah, he’s a smart guy. He probably knew this all along. The question is what, in my opinion, what financial incentive does he have now to make this decision? Is he now looking at funding other sources like say, you know, is he in on compressed natural gas? Is he going to go buy all the stuff that’s that’s collecting vapors over landfills? We talked about the stuff that BP’s doing is, in my opinion, there’s got to be some financial. [00:06:34][43.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:34] Incentives, a money. [00:06:35][0.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:36] Pushing. Yeah, exactly. So my question is, it’d be interesting to see what investments he’s made recently. [00:06:40][3.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:40] He’s made a couple of them and they are not in the. I’m going to have more information on this, but here’s here’s where you have to look at. The head of the World Economic Forum said, oh, by the way, people are waking up and they’re not taking the shots. We’ve lost control of the shots. We’ve all. Hang on, dude. I know. And and we got to find a new way. Bill Gates is the tip of the spear. And I guarantee you, watch what he does. [00:07:09][28.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:10] I see. [00:07:10][0.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:11] Now a shill. [00:07:11][0.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:12] For Klaus Schwab. All right, What’s next? [00:07:14][1.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:14] Let’s go to the next one here. I love the Epoch Times here. This one is the authors of the papers are being attacked and say that activist scientists threaten the new findings are aggressively conducting orchestrated disinformation to discredit the papers and scientific reputation of the authors. Here’s a quote out of here William Happer, Princeton professor of physics. Physics matter. Michael, I believe it or not. And of course, the climate call will be dismissive of any information, no matter how scientifically correct that is. The Politico. That is politically incorrect. It is. He was now ridiculed, Mr. Mann, for the famous hockey stick graph showing massive manmade warming. If Bill Gates is coming out and this guy is getting attacked for physics, Bill Gates is admitting it. That is really critical when you take a look at the papers. Even as director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies is now got another one. Mr.. He says he mocked Greenpeace’s Patrick Moore, saying that there was more blank, blank, blank going around talking about bad things. Well, there’s still going to be a big fight going on. [00:08:35][81.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:35] Yeah, I think it’s important to say. So what are these studies saying So? Well, it’s just I you know, I love looking at this stuff. This is in the research of astronomy and astrophysics. Do you’ve got one, two, three, four or five? I mean, you got like 14 people on this paper from all over the country. What does this abstract say? Since 227, the IPCC or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is heavily relied on the comparison between global climate in CAS and global surface temperatures. Estimates for concluding that the post 20, a 1950s global warming is mostly human caused in Connelly 28 all paper they wrote in 2021, We cautioned this approach to detection and the attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of solar, of total solar interference, blah, blah, blah. Here’s what they say. And at the end of it, therefore, it is still unclear whether a observed warming is mostly human caused, mostly natural or some combination of the both. The problem is we can admit on our side. Yeah, we don’t really know what the cause is, but they kept on the other side admit the same thing. And that’s why we’ll never be able to come to an actual consensus and move forward. Because you’ve got one side who doesn’t who can’t even acknowledge the science that’s out there right now. [00:09:44][68.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:45] Exactly. And I have interviewed now twice, Dr. Moore. Yes. He was just mentioned. Unbelievable. That one just went out on X as an update the other day. And so everybody can go see it out on X. Now, here’s the other one. I interviewed Miss Currie. She June is Currie and she was the author of Climate Uncertainty and Risk. She was phenomenal on the podcast. Michael So when you start having a nice little footprint like we have on the energy. Been. It’s kind of nice when all these articles are written by people. We’ve interviewed these. [00:10:18][33.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:19] So I think, again, the point of all this is the consensus that everybody thinks climate change is going to kill us in ten years. There’s cracks in it. Now, there’s question is we’re going to still the follow the money on this, but at least from the standpoint of the consensus, you can tell, is beginning to shift a little bit. And that’s. [00:10:37][18.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:37] Great. AUDIENCE Hey, let’s go to the war here. Bloomberg estimates economic cost of the Iran Israel conflict. Again, I just want to say our hearts and prayers go out to the entire area on this. Here’s the worst case scenario. The world would be plunged into a recession and lose $1 trillion in GDP right now, Michael. 1 trillion in GDP spread out between the countries. Countries are on the edge because of printing money. You know how I feel about printing money and we are facing already. Here’s a couple of quotes in here. Bloomberg Economics Analyst Well, these three scenarios, the wider conflict, the spreads, the more impacts becomes global rather than regional conflict in the Middle East can send tremors through the world because the region is a crucial supplier of energy and a key shipping passage. And one other key and here for another analysis, the spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE may not save the day if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz through which one fifth of the world’s daily oil supplies pass. There also be an extreme risk off shift in the financial markets. [00:11:54][76.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:55] I mean, okay, So to answer the question, what’s the worst case scenario? That right there you have the closing of the Strait of Hormuz would be horrible in terms of short term oil prices. Oil’s at 87 now. You’d see 100, in my opinion. [00:12:10][15.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:10] Absolutely. And and here’s and 2150 maybe. [00:12:15][4.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:16] I don’t know if you had a large jump. [00:12:19][3.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:19] I talked about this, the trifecta of retro. And I’ve talked to several other experts over the weekend. You have the one if Israel takes out the export facilities for and the downstream capabilities in Iran, we have a chapter head in Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham, Senator Lindsey Graham call for the United States to do that. [00:12:41][21.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:41] Yeah that’s that’s. [00:12:42][0.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:42] That’s. [00:12:42][0.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:12:43] That’s almost criminal in my opinion. You want to put us in a war and not criminal, but I mean, holy smoke, I read that. I got a shiver. I said, Oh man, they want a nuclear war with Iran right now. [00:12:53][9.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:12:54] He is the ultimate chowder head. I’m sorry. Anyway, okay, so if that happens, step one, if because they’ve sold $30 billion worth of oil just to China, but they now have over 70 billion in their coffers, the only export they have is oil. So that’s a lot. So now if Iran counters and they mind the Strait of Hormuz, that is huge. Those two items are going to cause those two single items. Here’s the other third piece of this. They’ve you and I talked about this a little bit, and that is they’re in the Club Med, a little bit more data on Club Med, the Leviathan field that Israel is really got some they’ve got production out of and it goes to Egypt. The Egypt natural gas has spare capacity in order to export LNG. What’s going around the rest of the world with LNG very, very important. So the only way for Israel to ship natural gas to the market is through Egypt. Ah, here’s a really big issue. You have Turkey and Cyprus fighting over the border wall like you and I talked about for years. It’s now surfaced again. So if they’re taking that off, Israel is I mean, Egypt is going to lose 20% of their energy, which is done by natural gas. Wow. I mean, all of those three things are like, holy smokes. Okay, what do you think? [00:14:28][94.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:29] Well, I guess the real question is you mentioned at the beginning of this, the beginning of this segment that with the current, you know, this 1 trillion in GDP would absolutely cripple these economies, if only because of the fact that we’ve been printing money up to this point and everybody is already on the brink. You have this interesting article talking about the Treasury bond auction that ran last week. Yes. What does that have to do with all of this? [00:14:53][24.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:53] Okay. Let’s take a look at it. And there’s some this goes back to BRICS. We’re not going to jump into BRICS. We’ve covered BRICS a lot, but the U.S. still mad. [00:15:02][8.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:02] We’re not in BRICS. But that’s the case. This podcast was destined for BRICS and now we’re now we’re not. [00:15:08][5.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:15:09] We’re going to take the BRICS credit card, though, for sponsors so that we. The article, Michael, that we’re talking about is Treasury bond auction runs into weak demand amid fears that the soaring U.S. debt will overwhelm Wall Street. Holy smokes, Michael. The U.S. sold 20 billion of 30 year bonds, but the dealers had to take up more supply than they did. Normally, that’s about a 5% is what the huge difference was. 18 is, is what they did. Normally, they only buy about 11%. China has bought over the years a lot of our debt. And this is how we fund a lot of things is through the Treasury bills or T-bills. So yield right now on the 30 year treasury jumped 12 basis points to 4.856. I’ve been watching some of the big guys and they’ll take 5% money every day and they’ll get out of the stock market, Michael. So if they can get 5%, they don’t care. They’re just going to go park their money and let it sit there because they’re not going to get hurt at 5% money. So this is just another sign that energy and finance is all related. [00:16:21][72.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:21] Michael Yeah, well, again, I think the other interesting part is you’re seeing the more we’re having to sell bonds and that means there’s, you know, again, more cash. The Fed is getting more cash. And so what is the government doing? The government’s spending that money in doing everything, increasing the cash supply. So this all comes back to if now all of a sudden there’s this huge global World War three, where are the bond? The bonds that we would sell have already been sold. We’ve already spent the money. So they’re going to have to print the money in order to keep up with it. And we know that it’s the sixth cycle we’ve been it. The Fed has sort of taken a stance is that leads later down in this article. They’re they’re not dubbing it quantitative tightening, but it’s what they’re doing. They’re not buying as many bonds as they used to. So which means they’re not reinvesting their proceeds from these longer term assets into the shorter term assets by which reducing their balance sheet. So they’re doing an okay job of that. The problem is in order to keep this up, we’re gonna have to keep printing more money, which we’ve seen that leads to inflation. So it all loops into a global war. If you thought inflation was bad, now look, buckle up, buckle up. Let’s talk Russia. [00:17:33][71.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:34] Yeah, this is also I just real quick, there’s one other story in here. Qatar to cut gas export of attacks on Gaza continue. There’s really nothing in here other than Qatar is now saying, hey, if it keeps going, they’re going to cut LNG exports off. And then Hamas and Iran are meeting in Qatar yesterday so they can help get more things going. So that is the only reason we’re going to talk about that one. So buckle up on that. [00:18:05][30.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:05] Yeah, no kidding. [00:18:06][0.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:06] Let’s go to Russia’s oil revenues surge. This is from the IEA, Michael, Russia. Listen to this, Michael. 18.8 billion from oil exports last month as large. September was the most profitable month since July of 2022. Them sanctions working out for you, Boutin. [00:18:28][21.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:29] Well, it’s got something to do with the price, Dak. I mean, oil was up last month, but yes, at the level at which Russia sells oil price actually has less ish to do with it, but more in terms of how much raw exports in the volume that’s actually going out. [00:18:44][15.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:45] You’re right, there are some numbers here that the IEA put out, and that is the agency estimate show that the country total exports surge on an average of 460,000 barrels per day, month on month, with crude accounting for 250,000 barrels per day of the increase. Pretty crazy. Michael, you and I talked about Russia banning their exports on diesel and refined products. They lifted that ban. So they’ve fixed their internal and so they can now ship again on that. [00:19:16][31.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:17] China and India still biggest buyers. Well, I’m glad the IEA came to this conclusion about six months past, why we all really knew what was going on. [00:19:24][7.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:19:25] Oh, yeah? Where do you think oil’s going to end up in the next 30 days? [00:19:29][3.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:19:30] Oh, that’s just just just throw a dart on a dart board, and that’s what it will be. I don’t know if I have a good answer. I don’t think it’s going down from here. I don’t think you’re going to see $50 oil. I think $150 oil is more likely than $50 oil. But until I see $150 on a price chart, I’m going to it’s going to be hard press for me to say, yeah, $150 oil we saw last year, we saw 130. It was it. Yes, Last about June, July 2022, we saw $120 oil. I mean, at one point now we only saw for a little bit. Prices then declined from there. It’ll be interesting to see if we can reach that. I mean, if any one of those three scenarios that we talked about in that Bloomberg article come true, you’ll see a huge increase if the Strait of Hormuz. Closes. It’s all we’ve now shifted from fundamentals to geopolitical. Yes. There’s a fundamentals of supply and demand and all of the stuff going around there. But I think the sentiment on where oil prices go is now swung back geopolitically into a short term. Hey, where are what’s affecting that underlying supply and demand versus, you know, no one’s waiting for the IEA to come out and say, you know, this IEA report. Is it moving prices as it might if there wasn’t so much geopolitical tension? You know what I mean? [00:20:41][72.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:42] Oh, yeah. Yeah. Unbelievable. [00:20:44][2.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:45] Very, very unbelievable. So you got anything else for us? [00:20:48][2.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:20:49] No. Buckle up. The consumers get it in the drive through. [00:20:51][2.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:20:53] Yeah, well, we’ll go ahead and quickly cover what happened last Friday in the oil and gas markets will start just in the overall markets as the S&P 500 dropped about a half a percentage point. NASDAQ tumbles about 1.25 percentage points, mainly off the back of some poor IPO performance. I feel sorry for everybody who decided who thought they were going to buy Birkenstock a dumb idea. WTI crude oil up 5.75 percentage points 8769. Brant Oil only up about 1.75 percentage points. Currently trading 91.18 natural gas, $3.32. Associates 3% drop mainly again off the back of some some cooler weather beginning to roll in. And so as people begin to roll over and we begin to start drawing from our reserves, it’ll be very interesting to see what happens with prices, how much natural gas will go on the oil side, mainly what, again, we’re seeing prices that big five and a half price jump is off the back of the tension going on with with the with the Israeli-Hamas I brand conflict. So it’s anybody’s guess, as we mentioned, where prices are going to go from here. I’d be remiss to say if if we didn’t quickly know that we did see an increase in the rig count of about 3 to 622 for the U.S., Canada plus 13. Internationally, you’re still dropping 12, which is interesting. I think the more important number is that that three rig count increase from the United States is still down about 147 from where it was last year. But I think it’s going to be interesting to see now if rig count begins to turn itself around amid this, what is going what is considered. I mean, you asked me what I you think prices are going to be. What do you think steel prices are going to be? [00:22:29][96.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:31] I always hate it when you do a nice political move like that, Michael. Well done. You know, what do you think? [00:22:36][4.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:22:37] We’ll know if you think prices are going to $200? Rick, I better be jumping by 20. We would’ve counted 622 Everything’s economic at $200. We should have a 400. We should see an increase of 400 rigs. That’s my thing. If prices or if everybody think prices are going to 150, why are there not rigs being deployed by the the tens over week over week, really? [00:22:57][20.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:22:57] So that’s a good question. That’s a great question, Michael. And I think regular legislation through regulations, people are in fear right now, is. [00:23:05][7.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:23:05] That I disagree. I actually disagree. I think I think it’s a I think it’s a sign that all of those thousand double economic premium locations that every M&A deal that we’ve talked about has garnered, oh, my goodness, we just bought 4000 locations. Yeah, they’ve got three. That’s what I mean. That’s how I look at it. [00:23:23][17.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:23:23] I like your attitude. Hey, speaking of that, I’m looking forward to our new series coming up. [00:23:27][3.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:23:27] We do have a great series coming up, Deal of the week. It’s going to be really fun. It may not be deal of the week or probably more like Deal Every other week. We’re going to come up with the name because the goal is to dive in a little bit deeper to a lot of these M&A deals that we’re covering and kind of break down. You know, okay, let’s say, for example, this Civitas venture energy deal, 2.6 billion, did they overpay? And we’re not necessarily going to be able to answer. Did they overpay? But we’re going to be able to give an idea on here’s how you would go about thinking about that or here’s how you would break it down and we’ll do some smaller deals. Definitely want to dive in and cover minerals deals, but look for that. We’re really excited to announce some partnerships with some great companies there that make this process really simple and streamline it. And the goal is a workflow, a standard workflow that you run every deal through so that you can compare deal over deal because you need to be able to compare, you know, if you’re an A&E shop, apples to apples, you don’t need to be B be comparing one workflow and one deal with another deal, but a different workflow because the how you build your workflow depends on how you, what lens you see that with. And that’s all the stuff we’re going to get into. It’s going to be awesome. It’s going to be available everywhere. We’re kind of working out the final, final details that we’ll announce, be able to announce some things hopefully in the next couple of weeks. But stay tuned for that, guys. We’ve got to come up with a better name than Deal of every other week, but we’ll come up with something catchy, but we hope you guys enjoy that. I’m looking forward to that stuff. I’ll tell you what, that’ll be fun. [00:24:52][84.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:24:52] Yeah. I’m also looking forward to being in the Permian show this week and interviewing a bunch of people lined up. Got a also with Mark Pearl Berg, CPA taxes and our T talking about AMP taxes and saving money. [00:25:07][14.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:25:07] Artie Trevino we love us some Paco’s country operating. [00:25:10][2.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:25:10] Yes we do. [00:25:11][0.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:25:11] So alright guys with that. Hope you will let you get back to your what hopefully is not that many meetings on a Monday, but stay strong, guys. You got this. It’s actually a four day work week for me. I’ll be out Friday. We don’t really do anything reporting on Friday, so you’ll still hear me all these days. But stay strong four or five day week. It doesn’t matter. Stay strong. Folks will be with you all week. For Stuart Turley, I’m Michael Tanner. We’ll see you tomorrow, folks. [00:25:11][0.0][1463.3]

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