2024 Natural Gas Slump

15 oil tankers have crossed the Arctic waters so far this year With a month to go that already exceeds last year’s total Russia has already dispatched a record amount of oil through its section […]

EU, allies look to strengthen Russian oil price cap, EU Commission says

The low natural gas prices in 2024 can be attributed to a combination of factors based on the information available up to September 25, 2024: High Inventory Levels: At the beginning of 2024, natural gas […]

Highlights of the Podcast

00:00 – Intro

01:16 – Russia Ramps Up Arctic Oil Tanker Shipping to a New Record

03:30 – EU, allies look to strengthen Russian oil price cap, EU Commission says

04:47 – China’s electric vehicles: Is the US overreacting, or the EU underreacting?

06:45 – EV Market Meltdown: Consumers Reject The Pricey Cars As Demand Plummets

08:31 – Why are natural gas prices so low in 2024

11:39 – Markets Update

12:53 – U.S. Petroleum Inventories Fall More Than Expected

13:42 – APA Corporation Expands Palantir Partnership to Implement AI in Oil & Gas Operations

14:50 – Outro

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Michael Tanner: [00:00:10] What’s going on, everybody? Welcome into the Thursday, September 26th, 2024, edition of the Daily Energy News Beat. Stand up here for today’s top headlines. First up, Russia ramps up Arctic oil tanker shipping to a new record burner. Next up, EU and allies look to strengthen Russian oil price gap, according to the EU Commission. Ooh, spooky. Next up, China’s electric vehicles. Is the US overreacting or is the EU under reacting? Interesting little play on words. They’re sticking upon the EV theme EV market meltdown. Consumers reject spicy cars as demand plummets. And finally, we’ll finish up with why are natural gas prices so low in 2020 for Stuart-Haas Racing? I will quickly cover what happened in the oil and gas markets. Say we did see prices fall on a few of the things we saw. The EIA actually post a really interesting draw on storage and then we’ll close out talking about a little air in the oil field. As always, I am Michael Tanner, joined by Stuart Turley. Where do you want to begin? [00:01:16][65.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:16] Hey, let’s start with our buddies over there in Russia. Holy smokes, Batman. Putin is hitting it out of the park. Russia ramps up Arctic Oil tanker shipping to a new record. Michael With a month left to go that already exceeds last year, 15 oil tankers have crossed the Arctic waters so far. Russia has dispatched a record amount of oil through the Arctic Circle. 10.7 million barrels of crude went through the Northern Sea route. I’ll tell you what, them Houthies got a thing going on there. It’s pretty crazy. [00:01:52][36.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:01:53] Yeah, it is. I mean, to give you know, as that compares to last year, this article points out that last year in total, only 14 vessels, which are about 10.5 million barrels, crossed that same Northern Sea route last year. So they’re cranking it up. And you’re right, it really all has to do with the fact that the Red Sea is shutting down the Cold War. Yeah, I wouldn’t want to be on that ship. [00:02:14][20.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:15] No. But it’s also how much is going on. It takes a week to go over the northern crossing from Nova, Somalia, in the west to the Bering Strait to the east there. It’s 12 to 14 more days to reach the ports of Shanghai and those of northern China. It really saves a lot of good time to use the northern routes. [00:02:34][19.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:35] It really does. Now, you know, eventually, obviously, Russia is going to have majority of control of that route. So you don’t know some of the chicanery that go on there. I find it interesting, you know, the National Tanker Owners Pollution Federation, the not for profit organization that was established on behalf of the world’s ship owners, to basically just kind of protect and provide effective borders. They are quoted in this article saying the remote, the remoteness, lack of infrastructure and the inhospitable conditions in the Arctic means significant logistical and operational challenges must be overcome in the event of an oil spill. And they’re not wrong about that. [00:03:12][37.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:03:12] No, absolutely not. And especially because they’re using a lot of the dart fleet, older tankers and self-insured. So if an accident happens, you’re going to go up to Putin and go payout, Right. They say, I don’t think so. EU allies like this strengthen Russian oil price gap. The EU commission says, Michael, I’m going to hold my breath when I think the EU can make Putin do anything. Okay. And you’re not going to do it. This is the fourth time we meet in Brussels. There needs to be more done and relentless enforcement when we should all focus on now, said O’Sullivan. A commission statement. The commission said Russia had nearly spent half its federal budget on defense and security, that Russia was believed on paying over 130% more for semiconductors and 300% for machine tools via Turkey and China. Then full 2022 since the Ukraine invasion. But they’re still making money hand over fist on oil and LNG export. [00:04:22][69.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:23] Yeah, I mean, it’s clear the price caps really haven’t worked. So I find it again super interesting that they want to continue to try to roll it down. I love this quote here from David Sullivan. This is the fourth time we met in Brussels. There is there is more that needs to be done. And relentless enforcement is where we should all be focused. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. [00:04:44][21.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:45] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Here’s some lip service for you. All right, let’s go over to China. China’s electric vehicles. Is the US overreacting or is the EU under reacting? I would be deathly afraid of having a Chinese vehicle here. The European commissioner had a constructive, quote, constructive talk with the Chinese on how the EU’s. Low import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and how the US is coming out all guns blazing. My goal I would not want a Chinese car in my driveway with the software that they could go absolutely bonkers on. It just makes no sense to me. [00:05:28][43.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:28] Yeah, I definitely think it’s a conundrum that, you know, we’ll talk about in the next article about how demand is really plummeting. But the thing with China is they have an ability to do these things way below market price. And I will call market rate because they’re able to make a product on it, mostly because by using slave labor, we can say that here because this is a safe space. You know, if you have to put nets in your at your factories so that when people jump, they don’t die. I consider that slave labor. That’s just what I would say on this. [00:05:58][29.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:05:58] This is the guys on the building I got. I got to make sure they put in an anchor for them and news desk folks. [00:06:05][6.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:06] Get up. It it is interesting. And, you know, this article points out and I’ll read from it, the fact that the US news comes only days after the European Commission talks with China indicate that the US government coordinates little to nothing with European leaders. Well, that’s probably a good thing because it’s a free market economy. [00:06:23][16.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:24] But it’s not. Come on. The EU is always caught in the middle and is increasingly pushed to pick aside the EU. Let’s take the UK just as a stand alone thing. They couldn’t manage their way out of a paper bag. They’re just as bad as the US folks. So an administration. All right. Let’s go to the next one here. Every market meltdown. Consumers reject pricey cars as demand plummets. I like this one. This one was really very a good story. Germans are likewise losing interest as the country has suffered a spectacular drop on electric sales. And as the European Union faces calls to delay net zero targets. They’re down 70%, Michael. And I was listening to Amir Dr.. And on faces yesterday on the TV. Why the EVs have not impacted peak oil demand. They haven’t. I mean, it’s just unbelievable how little EVs have impacted reducing fossil fuels. They have not. They’re losing value at an unsustainable rate as slowdown in consumer demand. Sands used car prices tumbling. They are useless except for boat anchors or bombs. You know, give one to your in-laws that you don’t like and wait for it to burn the house down. That’s what I think some of them are thinking. [00:07:58][93.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:58] Yeah, no, absolutely. I mean, Ford, which we know lost $73,000 per EV that it sold. The market is clearly melting. [00:08:07][8.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:07] Absolutely. And now I still want me a cybertruck for my third truck. I mean, you know. But you heard the word third. [00:08:14][6.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:15] Yeah. What I want to know is, if Elon wasn’t running Tesla, would you still want a cybertruck? No. What’s next? [00:08:21][6.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:22] But I’ll tell you what. I love me all the stuff that’s in there. I mean, it’s. It’s got some cool stuff. [00:08:26][4.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:27] In the words of, you know. [00:08:29][2.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:29] Honestly, it’s bulletproof. Now you’re talking. Why are natural gas prices so low in 2024? Here are a critical points. I’m not going to go through all of them. But the geopolitical factors reduction in gas imports from Russia to Europe due to geopolitical tensions and the EU effort to diversify energy sources might have initially led to higher prices, but alternative supplies ramped up from Azerbaijan or increased LNG imports. I’ll tell you, I had a great conversation with George Macmillan and he and I are going over some complete maps and other changes in the global pipeline strategies natural gas. And it is amazing what’s coming around the corner. Demand Dynamics. There’s been a noted decrease in demand due to various favors. So milder weather hit. But I guarantee you, Michael, we’re going to need a lot more natural gas power plants. I’m thinking that this is just temporary. [00:09:31][61.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:32] Yeah, I you know, if I knew where the natural gas markets were going, I wouldn’t need to be here either. [00:09:37][4.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:37] Absolutely not. And I’m not I would not be installing a net underneath the building for you not to be jumping. [00:09:42][5.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:09:43] So, yeah, absolutely. I think you also have to to point out that this article talks a little bit about the geopolitical factors, economic policies, technology advances. I think that’s a critical one. And competitive energy sources. I don’t really buy that. I don’t really think that solar is and wind are competing, as they’re trying to say, with natural gas. But I really chalk it up to, you know, production levels. Kind of the first three that they talked about here in this article, that would kind of be. Analysis. [00:10:09][26.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:10] Sounds great. I’ll have to complain to the author. [00:10:12][1.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:13] Yeah, no kidding. Why? Let’s go ahead and jump over into oil and gas finance. But before we do that, guys, as always, we got to pay the bills. Thank you for checking us out here on the world’s greatest website. www.EnergyNewsbeat.com. All the news and quote unquote analysis that you hear is brought to you by said websites do in the team do a tremendous job making sure that it stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit that description below for all the links to the timestamps. Links to the articles, check us out on substack. The energy news beat@substack.com. If you have ever wanted to get in and become an oil man, now is your opportunity. We have partnered up with our good friends over at the Crude Truth and Rey Trevino to offer some direct working interest into an awesome project up here in North Texas. Great way to diversify your portfolio. It’s an excellent way to be able to walk around the to your club on the weekend or when you go play pickleball in the morning and say, Hey, I’m an old man, hey. [00:11:16][62.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:11:16] I’m an old man, I got tax benefits, I get a K-1 in the mail every year. K Ones are cool. [00:11:22][6.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:23] K ones are cool. And eventually if you’re making money off it. So if you guys are interested in that, go ahead and hit the link in the description below or check us out at Invest in Oil.Energy Newsweek.com and we will get you all of the information and that again that’s invest in oil.energynews beat.com. [00:11:39][15.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:11:39] I mean overall market share with platinum. So S&P 500 was only down about 2/10 of a percentage point. Nasdaq was only about one fourth, about 4/10 of a percentage point. Two year yields a half a percentage point. Ten year yields up 1.6 percentage points. Dollar index up 6/10 of a percentage point. Bitcoin down a one and a half percentage points, but still 63,346 crude oil lost about $2 or excuse me, about $1.70 8 or 2.4 percentage points. It’s down to 69. 78, right? 73, 61. Natural gas jumps another three percentage points today, guys, $2.64. Our So contract shreds off about 2.3 percentage points. So everything but natural gas is down today, mainly from an oil side. You know, what you’re hearing is obviously we’ve been dealing with some Libya production that’s been offline. There’s been some threatens that they’re going to completely shut it off. Well, that’s all back on. You know, they’re trying to figure out what they’re going on over there. But it does seem like the demand and the supply coming out of Libya is going to get solved. You know, we China has announced a new stimulus plan. And the only reason you’re stimulating is because something needs to be stimulated. So they’re clearly still seeing maybe demand is in that. Great. We were held up a little bit. The EIA actually came out and dropped a 4.33 million barrel draw, which was less than or which was more than what the API was expecting. We also did see that, you know, we saw some other stuff in the asset. Here are a few barrels, about 1.3 million article. [00:13:13][93.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:13] Yeah. That article saying to 26,000 barrels on top of the 1.4 million. That’s a lot down. [00:13:19][6.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:20] Yeah it was, it was great. We also did see gasoline inventories fall by about 3.4, 3 million barrels. Distillates also fell by 1.15. And we also did see, as you said, the Cushing inventories drop. So these are, you know, if the word frothy hasn’t been used enough, I’m going to use it here. Things are getting frothy, especially with some of the stuff going geopolitical. The last thing I wanted to know was Apache announced their extended air partnership with Guess who? Alan Deere. So if you weren’t sure, if you didn’t think the D.O.D. was reading your emails, well, guess what? Now they’ve got a guy reading those emails, Palantir Tech, which we know, you know, biggest customer is the government has announced in partnership with Apache that they’re going to be deploying enterprise AI across their entire systems. I wanted the reason I wanted to bring this up is here are the potential use cases that they’re pointing out operational planning, supply chain management, maintenance, planning, production optimization and contract management. I don’t know how they’re going to help operational management totally get supply chain maintenance, planning and production up to it. That makes total sense because there’s massive amounts of data contract management that’ll be interesting, right? You know, there was a few companies trying to do some blockchain stuff with that. I just find it funny. Apache’s Just getting in bed with the DOD. I mean, what could go wrong there? [00:14:40][79.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:41] yeah, retro. [00:14:42][1.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:42] That’s okay. It’s been a long weeks. Do. What else do we got? Just buckle. [00:14:46][3.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:46] Up. Be prepared. Keep your head on a swivel. [00:14:48][1.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:14:48] Yeah, we will be ready. Well, we appreciate everybody sticking it out with us this week, obviously. Who do you who do we have tomorrow on the podcast? [00:14:55][6.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:56] I believe I have Wassef Latif from Somalia Partners. It is a great, great podcast. We talk about investing. I’m interviewing him again tomorrow. He just came back from a. Gold Conference, so it’ll be the third podcast we recorded. And then we’ve got George Macmillan coming out, we’ve got two podcast with him. He is really got some great information about what’s going on around the world with Putin, natural gas and oil. So pretty crazy. [00:15:26][30.8]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:27] Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. I definitely think those are some great interviews. I highly recommend checking them out. If you’re interested in getting into the physical commodity market. We love them over there. Shout out to my good friend Carl for helping get that cooked up. And then on Saturday you will hear the weekly recap. So we’ve got a busy two days for you guys will take Sunday off and we’ll be back in the chair bright and early for you Monday. But with that, Stu, let’s go ahead and let people get out of here. Hopefully start that weekend early for Stuart. Michael Tanner, we’ll see you next week. [00:15:27][0.0][896.2]

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