November 21

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #529

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The Week That Was: 2022-11-19 (November 19, 2022)Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week:We have a habit in writing articles published in scientific journals to make the work as finished as possible, to cover up all the tracks, to not worry about the blind alleys or describe how you had the wrong idea first, and so on. So there isn’t any place to publish, in a dignified manner, what you actually did in order to get to do the work.” Richard Feynman, Nobel Lecture, 1966.

Number of the Week: 0.003°C per year. Temperature from 200 meteorological stations: average rate of 0.005°C, per year during the past half century.

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: Writing in Real Clear Energy, AMO Physics Professor Emeritus William Happer has an effective essay explaining why there is no dangerous warming from natural gas (mostly methane, CH4) which is vital for maintaining a stable electrical grid. Meanwhile the grid is becoming more fragile as special interest groups falsely claim wind and solar power is reliable and less costly than coal or natural gas. TWTW will discuss the essay using parts of the important paper written by Happer and W. A. van Wijngaarden on “Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules.”

The 27th annual Conference of Parties (COP 27) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) closed with the COP27 President, Sameh Shoukry declaring that they are “fair, balanced, and transparent in our approach.” The UN is not. It deliberately ignores forty years of advances in understanding the limitations of how atmospheric greenhouse gases influence earth’s temperatures. As Howard Hayden demonstrated in last week’s TWTW, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)            “…have provided incontrovertible evidence that their representative scenarios are physically impossible.” Even when using the more modest “scenario in which the radiative forcing is 7.0 W/m2” (SSP3-7.0), the IPCC gets the Stefan-Boltzmann law wrong. Thus, none of their projections, forecasts, or long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns are based on laws of physics. TWTW will explore the possibility of a term to describe this deliberate ignorance of advances in science. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QENy1YYPKQ

Former parliamentary under-secretary for Energy, Science and Technology Barry Brill of New Zealand has written that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) the IPCC backed down from its most extreme position. However, as witnessed at COP 27, it makes no difference to those making fanatical demands about the use of fossil fuels including enormous transfer payments from the US to developing nations. TWTW will review a few of the remarkable and positive changes that humanity has experienced, thanks to the use of these fuels.

In discussing the hypocrisy of COP 27, environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg brings up studies on the tremendous benefits to humanity in recent years from rural electrification, which requires reliable electricity, which cannot be supplied by wind or solar power.

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No Clothes? In discussing the absence of critical thinking demonstrated by the Biden Administration in its intensifying regulations on the production of natural gas (methane), William Happer begins with the Hans Christian Anderson’s story “The Emperor’s New Clothes.” Happer writes:

“In Biden’s case, the new clothes are the nonsense that there is a climate emergency. But who would want to be considered “unfit for his office” or “unusually stupid” by questioning whether there really is an emergency? So, resplendent in his new regalia, President Biden has proposed regulations on methane emissions by the U.S. oil and gas industry, at a direct cost of more than $1 billion annually, to deal with a nonexistent problem.

“In fact, there is no climate emergency and there will not be one, with or without new regulations on methane emissions. Methane, the molecule CH4, is the main constituent of natural gas. Animals like cattle and sheep belch methane as they chew their cud. They are able to get more energy from forage by digesting some of the cellulose with the aid of methane-generating microorganisms in their stomachs. Termites use the same trick to digest wood. Microorganisms in soils, notably rice paddies, also emit large amounts of methane.

“To understand why methane regulation will be irrelevant to climate, it is necessary to discuss a few numbers. This is not customary in climate discussions, which are usually more based in emotion than in fact.

“Like water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O), methane is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas. Together with clouds, greenhouse gases control how heat added to the Earth by sunlight is returned as thermal infrared radiation to space. Greenhouse gases impede the flow of heat from Earth’s surface to space. 

“The details of how this happens are considerably more complicated than described by the adjective ‘heat-trapping.’ Much of the heat transfer near the surface is due to convection of moist air and has little to do with greenhouse gases. And how the temperature varies with altitude at various locations on Earth’s surface is as important as the concentration of greenhouse gases.

“Few realize that large increases in the concentrations of greenhouse gases cause very small changes in the heat balance of the atmosphere. Doubling the concentration of methane – a 100% increase, which would take about 200 years at the current growth rates – would reduce the heat flow to space by only 0.3%, leading to an average global temperature change of only 0.2 °C. This is less than one-quarter of the change in temperature observed over the past 150 years. 

“Most of the predicted catastrophic warming from greenhouse gas emissions is due to positive feedbacks that are highly speculative, at best. In accordance with Le Chatelier’s principle, most feedbacks of natural systems are negative, not positive.

So, even if regulations on U.S. methane emissions could completely stop the increase of atmospheric methane (they can’t), they would likely only lower the average global temperature in the year 2222 by about 0.2 °C, a completely trivial amount given that humans have adapted to a much larger change over the past century while reducing climate deaths by over 98%.”

In explaining “U.S. to Sharply Cut Methane Pollution that Threatens the Climate and Public Health” November 2, 2022, the EPA claims:

“One third of the warming from greenhouse gases occurring today is due to human-caused emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that traps about 30 times as much heat as carbon dioxide over 100 years, and sharp cuts over the next decade will have a near-term beneficial impact on the climate. In the United States, the oil and natural gas industry is the largest industrial source of methane emissions, emitting more methane than the total emissions of all greenhouse gases from 164 countries combined.”

The EPA’s claims are substantiated by nothing but words and models that fail basic testing against the real atmosphere. Professor Happer’s analysis is based on detailed calculations of “Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules.”

“The forcings due to changing concentrations of Earth’s five most important, naturally occurring greenhouse gases, H2O, CO2, O3, N2O and CH4 as well as CF4 and SF6 were evaluated for the case of a cloud-free atmosphere.”

Clouds will only lessen the greenhouse effect; thus, the analysis provides an upper bound. The data used is from the HITRAN Database, which is well tested. Many of America’s weapons systems depend on it, including the Sidewinders, Stinger, and Javelin infrared guided missiles, as well as night vision devices. The abstract further states:

“For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and CO2 are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, are also suppressed, but much less so.”

In this case, an order of magnitude is a power of ten, thus the effectiveness of carbon dioxide in an atmosphere with no CO2 is 10,000 times that of adding CO2 to today’s atmosphere. In writing:

“One third of the warming from greenhouse gases occurring today is due to human-caused emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that traps about 30 times as much heat as carbon dioxide over 100 years…”

…the EPA demonstrates that it is ignorant of the greenhouse effect, and insists on using misleading and false words. There appears that there is no one in this administration who is capable or will speak out about the profound distortions by the administration concerning atmospheric physical science.

Happer concludes his essay with:

“Biden and his advisors should reassess his new clothes and remember the wise word of the poet Alexander Pope:

”’A little learning is a dangerous thing;

“’Drink deep or taste not the Pierian spring.

“’There shallow draughts intoxicate brain,

“’And drinking largely sobers us again.’

“A little learning really is a dangerous thing. Learn a few more scientific facts and sober up, President Biden!”

See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/us-sharply-cut-methane-pollution-threatens-climate-and-public-health

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Functional Illiteracy: Years ago, when teaching economics and statistics, Haapala realized that many students may know the correct terms but do not understand what the terms mean. The advent of statistical packages for laptop computers may have only worsened the situation. Calculations and various statistical methods have limitations. One must understand these limitations before applying such methods.

In writing his paper on the incorrect statistics used to attribute probability assessments to extreme weather events, Ross McKitrick exposed papers, perhaps 10,000 papers, that failed to correctly interpret the Gauss-Markov Theorem on the assumptions needed to apply ordinary least squares to give the best unbiased estimate (BLUE) possible.

This problem is compounded by politicians and bureaucrats who are mathematically illiterate. A 1988 book by mathematician John Allen Paulos explained the problem well: Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and its Consequences. According to the book’s description on Amazon:

“Why do even well-educated people understand so little about mathematics? And what are the costs of our innumeracy? John Allen Paulos, in his celebrated bestseller first published in 1988, argues that our inability to deal rationally with very large numbers and the probabilities associated with them results in misinformed governmental policies, confused personal decisions, and an increased susceptibility to pseudoscience of all kinds. Innumeracy lets us know what we’re missing, and how we can do something about it.’

The problem exists beyond mathematics, as physician and molecular biologist of the Hoover Institution Henry Miller wrote in “Scientifically Illiterate America”:

“At least a modicum of scientific literacy is important for citizens. As the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry’s primer observed: ‘It is imperative that policymakers, the media, and the general public are able to distinguish the facts from mere interpretations of a biased constituency. Decision-makers and those who inform them must be able to judge the quality of the science and reasoning that supports a position and must know whether a set of scientific findings is really meaningful to a decision.’

“However, even when the science is sound and the data are ‘meaningful,’ politicians and government officials commonly ignore them, often in the cause of bureaucratic empire-building, advancing some ideological goal, or capitulating to activists. When I was an official at the Food and Drug Administration, I once heard a Clinton administration undersecretary of agriculture, who previously had headed an anti-technology advocacy group, deconstruct science: ‘You can have ‘your’ science or ‘my’ science or ‘somebody else’s’ science. By nature, there is going to be a difference.’ Translation: ‘I don’t care about data or the consensus in the scientific community. My opinions are just as valid.’

“The beauty of the scientific method, when done right, is that it protects us from ideology and bias, and helps us understand what is true and what really works. At its best, science can inform sound public policy. But when we ignore or misinterpret science, we move backwards toward a time when irrationality and superstition prevailed.” [Boldface added]

To avoid moving “backward toward a time when irrationality and superstition prevailed,” TWTW and SEPP try to emphasize that all evidence must be considered and properly presented. TWTW describes as “functional illiteracy” the use of important concepts without fully understanding them, including their limits.

In bureaucracies, such as government, all too often a little bit of exaggeration grows to a great deal of exaggeration. We have seen this on how increasing greenhouse gases may cause a bit of warming has grown to a “climate crisis” or “climate emergency.” See links under Other Scientific News and https://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809074478.

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A Small, Meaningless Concession: Barry Brill, of New Zealand has written that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) the IPCC has backed down from its most extreme emissions scenario. A similar essay by Judith Curry appeared in Climate Etc. on November 2 (Nov 5 TWTW). The average of all their modeled temperatures disagrees with measurements and will do so even after they abandon the most extreme one. Sadly, the damage caused by the exaggeration of the IPCC has been done. Many countries are making extreme claims of damages from global warming that are little more than exercises in extreme greed. For example, Colombia is claiming an annual loss of $800 billion, about 2.5 times its gross domestic product.

As discussed in last week’s TWTW, AMO physicist Howard Hayden showed that for the first time in its reports, AR6 of the IPCC brought up the Stefan-Boltzmann law and got it totally wrong. The authors of AR6 calculated an increase in infrared radiation emitted by the surface to be about one-third of that that would be emitted if the earth’s temperature rises 3.6ºC, the central estimate. Functional Illiteracy in action. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and After Paris.

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Benefits of the Industrial Revolution: According to IPCC reports, global warming started with industrial CO2 emissions, about in the year 1850 in England. According to “Our World in Data”, in 1850 about 74% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty, a hand-to-mouth existence. Today, about 10% of a much larger population lives in extreme poverty.

“But even after two centuries of progress, extreme poverty is still the reality for every tenth person in the world. This is what the ‘international poverty line’ highlights – this metric plays an important (and successful) role in focusing the world’s attention on these very poorest people in the world.

“The poorest people today live in countries which have achieved no growth. This stagnation of the world’s poorest economies is one of the largest problems of our time. Unless this changes millions of people will continue to live in extreme poverty.”

Most of the extreme poverty is in Africa, where the UN, WEF, and other “do-good” organizations are unwittingly trying to stop economic growth. Given their Functional Illiteracy, the cruelty of these organizations is difficult to understand. According to Our World in Data, in 1850 life expectancy was 29.3 years (with little data outside of Europe and the Americas). In 2019 it was 72.6 years. Although there have been deficiencies and inequalities, the Industrial Revolution has been a great benefit to humanity. But how many academics calculating the “Social Cost of Carbon” take these numbers into consideration?

One of the great benefits from industrialization has been steady, reliable electricity. Modern industry requires reliable, affordable electricity. In addressing the hypocrisy exhibited at COP 27, environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg brings up studies on the benefits of rural electrification. This led to other studies in various regions of the globe.

By the 1920s most US cities and towns had electricity. But as late as 1932, only about 10% of rural America had electricity. Franklin Roosevelt made rural electrification an issue in his 1932 presidential campaign. By the 1950s the task was largely completed, with many homes having electrical appliances. Now this administration and the IPCC are declaring that reliable, affordable electricity is harmful to humanity?

See links under After Paris!, https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty-in-brief, and https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy

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Number of the Week: 0.003°C per year. Temperature from 200 meteorological stations: average rate of 0.005°C per year during the past half century. Many sources of claims of dangerous global warming from humans adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere cite the work of British steam engineer and amateur meteorologist Guy Stewart Callendar for revising the 19th century work on carbon dioxide and temperatures. The founder of the concept of greenhouse gases, John Tyndall, used spectroscopy to establish the warming effect, and yet today’s climate modelers ignore modern work in the field, which is used by van Wijngaarden and Happer.

A link in Nature Human Behaviour led to a link of a 2007 reproduction of Calendar’s original paper in a 1938 publication by the Royal Meteorological Society. Unfortunately, due to restrictions, TWTW could not copy the Summary. It reads:

“By fuel combustion man has added about 150,000 million tons of carbon dioxide to the air during the past half century. The author estimates from the best available data that approximately three quarters of this has remained in the atmosphere.

“That radiation absorption coefficients of carbon dioxide and water vapor are used to show the effect of carbon dioxide on ‘sky radiation.’ From this the increase in mean temperature, due to the artificial production of carbon dioxide, is estimated to be at the rate of 0.003°C per year at the present time.

“The temperature observations at 200 meteorological stations are used to show that world temperatures have actually increased at an average rate of 0.005°C per year during the past half century.”

Evidently, TWTW must be an extreme anti-science, climate denier. The Earth is now in the cooling Meghalayan age, of the warm Holocene geological epoch, in the Quaternary period of frequent glaciations. Glaciation can lower the earth’s temperatures in the temperate regions (where most people live) and polar regions by 10°C or more. A warming of 0.5°C per century should be welcome. See links under Below the Bottom Line and Changing Climate.

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

A Little Learning on Methane and Climate Change

By William Happer, Real Clear Energy, Nov 16, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/16/a_little_learning_on_methane_and_climate_change_864994.html

“A little learning really is a dangerous thing. Learn a few more scientific facts and sober up, President Biden!”

Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules

By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Jan 14, 2021

https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2021/03/WPotency.pdf?x45936

Barry Brill: The overdue retraction of a giant lie

By Barry Brill, Breaking Views. NZ, Nov 7, 2022

https://breakingviewsnz.blogspot.com/2022/11/barry-brill-overdue-retraction-of-giant.html

Climate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now

By Staff, UN Climate Change, Oct 26, 2022

https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now

Climate Alarmist Claim Fact Checks

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, ICECAP, Nov 17, 2022

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/

Guest Feature: Energy *IS* the Economy

By Robert Hargraves, Grid Brief, Nov 15, 2022

https://www.gridbrief.com/p/guest-feature-energy-economy

“Sustainability is a myth.”

The Be-All / End-All “reposition global warming as theory” Memos: When It’s All You Got, You. Have. Nothing.

By Russell Cook, GelbspanFiles.com, Nov 16, 2022 [H/t WUWT]

http://gelbspanfiles.com/?p=14609

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

Analysis: World has 9 years to avoid critical climate change threshold

By Zack Budryck, The Hill, Nov 11, 2022

Link to Analysis: Global Carbon Budget 2022

By Pierre Friedlingstein and multiple authors, Earth System Science Data, Nov 11, 2022

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Climate Change Weekly #453: Climate Catastrophism Is Worse Than Climate Change

By H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland, Nov 17, 2022

Thanks, Colorado Springs Gazette, for Warning of the Dangers of “Climate Change Catastrophism”

By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Nov 16, 2022

After Paris!

COP27: A Parade Of Climate Hypocrisy

By Bjorn Lomborg, Forbes, Nov 10, 2022

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2022/11/10/cop27-a-parade-of-climate-hypocrisy/?sh=5207d9e472b3

Link to paper: Does basic energy access generate socioeconomic benefits? A field experiment with off-grid solar power in India

By Michaël Aklin, et al. Science Advances, May 17, 2017

https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/sciadv.1602153

Link to another study: The Welfare Impacts of Rural Electrification in Bangladesh

By Shahidur R. Khandker, et al, The Energy Journal.

https://www.iaee.org/energyjournal/article/2471

Link to a third study not used by Lomborg: Who Benefits Most from Rural Electrification? Evidence in India

By Shahidur R. Khandker, et al. The Energy Journal, Vol 35, No 2

https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2559

Opinion: Where I come from, being a climate ‘activist’ isn’t a choice

From CNN Opinion, Nov 10, 2022

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/10/opinions/amazon-climate-change-cop27-helena-gualinga/index.html

“Among those attending COP27 is 20-year-old Helena Gualinga. She hails from a remote village in the Ecuadorian Amazon – home of the Kichwa Sarayaku community, who have been fighting for climate justice and indigenous land rights for decades.”

[SEPP Comment: As with many claims, nothing to do with global warming.]

Opinion: Greenwashing Egypt’s human rights record with COP27

The COP27 meeting has drawn criticism due to the human rights and environmental records of its host country

By:Samaa Elibyari and Ehab Lotayef,  National Post (Can), Nov 12, 2022

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-greenwashing-egypts-human-rights-record-with-cop27

COP335

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

COP27 — Colombia claims an absurd $800 billion a year “loss and damage”

By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 16, 2022

https://www.cfact.org/2022/11/16/cop27-colombia-claims-an-absurd-800-billion-a-year-loss-and-damage/

Egypt’s COP27 ‘climate gabfest’ isn’t going ‘too well’

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 14, 2022

Video: “Sins of the Industrial Revolution.”

[SEPP Comment: Which pulled most of humanity out of extreme poverty!

‘Staggering Disconnect’: Climate Summit Boasts Opulent Beef, Seafood Menu Despite Spearheading Anti-Meat Initiatives

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2022

Problems in the Orthodoxy

China Embraces Increased Coal Use For Energy Security

By Julianne Geiger, Oil Price.com, Nov 15, 2022

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Embraces-Increased-Coal-Use-For-Energy-Security.html

[SEPP Comment: China: renewable power for show, coal for go!]

Measurement Issues — Surface

Russian Temperature Records Are Not Cooperating With The CO2-Driven Climate Narrative

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 14, 2022

Link to one paper: Holocene ice wedges of the Kolyma Lowland and January paleotemperature reconstructions based on oxygen isotope records

By Yurij K. Vasil’chuck, Nadine A. Budantseva, Geography and Geoology Departments, Lomonosov Moscow State University, (Science is clear understanding of truth, enlightenment of the mind.) Permaforst and Periglacial Processes, July 29, 2021

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ppp.2128

Link to second paper: Climate, glacial and vegetation history of the polar Ural Mountains since c. 27 cal ka BP, inferred from a 54 m long sediment core from Lake Bolshoye Shchuchye

By Marlene M. Lenz, et al, Journal of Quaternary Science, 2021

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jqs.3400

Changing Weather

Daily Rainfall In India Shows No Increase In Extremes

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2022

Endless Summer In New York

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 17, 2022

https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/endless-summer-in-new-york-2/

[SEPP Comment: Only four feet of snow occurring in Buffalo?]

Record Cold In Victoria

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 17, 2022

https://realclimatescience.com/2022/11/record-cold-in-victoria/

Changing Climate

Can you say Meghalayan?

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

“The Meghalayan sees a significant, widespread natural cooling cycle from temperatures considerably warmer than today to which the planet has never returned.”

Cold conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

Changing Seas

A 4500-year reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability at decadal time-scales off North Iceland

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2022

Link to paper: A 4500-year reconstruction of sea surface temperature variability at decadal time-scales off North Iceland

By Marie-Alexandrine Sicre, et al. Quaternary Science Review, November 2008

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379108001820

From the abstract: “We speculate that the oscillations reflect changes of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) induced by increased ENSO activity.”

[SEPP Comment: Iceland is just south of the Arctic Circle.]

New Study Finds Australian Sea Temperatures Multiple Degrees Warmer Than Today During The Last Glacial

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 17, 2022

Link to paper: Leeuwin Current dynamics over the last 60 kyr – relation to Australian ecosystem and Southern Ocean change

By Dirk Nürnberg, et al. Climate of the Past, Nov 15, 2022

https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/2483/2022/

Sea level rise to dramatically speed up erosion of rock coastlines by 2100

Press Release by Imperial College London, Phys.Org, Nov 15, 2022

https://phys.org/news/2022-11-sea-erosion-coastlines.html

“As the climate warms, sea levels are forecast to rise one meter by 2100 unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced.”

Link to paper: Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates

By Jennifer R. Shadrick, Nature Communications, Nov 18, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34386-3

[SEPP Comment; Hockey-stick sea level rise, where there has been little. The tidal gages at geological stable Newlyn show lots of short-term up and downs, but little net change for over 100 years.]

Coastal dwellers not being warned of rising sea level risk and property prices skewed, says nutty professor

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2022

“You may be familiar with his name – Jim Hall was a member of the Committee on Climate Change from 2009 to 2019, so has been peddling the scare for a long time.

“But worse still, he is currently a member of the Prime Minister’s Council for Science and Technology, Expert Advisor to the National Infrastructure Commission, and Chair of the Science Advisory Committee of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

“How do these con merchants get into such positions of authority and influence?”

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Everybody knows: the glaciers of Montana are disappearing

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

Hudson Bay sea ice freeze-up in 2022 like the 1980s for the 5th time since 2015

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 17, 2022

Lowering Standards

Jenny Harries Caught Lying About Heatwave Deaths

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 12, 2022

“More recently the claim was repeated by Prof Dame Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, According to the Guardian.”

Met Office Latest Extreme Weather Claims

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 14, 2022

“For many years, the UK Met Office, under its various guises, was respected as an honest, dependable public service of high integrity. Originally formed in 1854 by Robert Fitzroy, of HMS Beagle fame, it went on to produce the world’s first shipping forecast, the first public weather forecast, and world leading advances in the science of weather forecasting.

“Sadly, while there are still many there who are continuing these traditions, the Met Office has been taken over at the top by climate cultists, who are more interested in pushing their agenda than public service.

“Even by their now low standards, their latest attempt to sell the climate scare truly scrapes the bottom of the barrel:”

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?

BBC Admit Their Pakistan Floods Claim Was False

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2022

“In fact, these are precisely the sort of checks the BBC should have carried out before making their absurd claim. One which anybody with an ounce of common sense, or integrity, would have immediately suspected was wrong.

“It is doubly ironic that the BBC’s defence was that the one third claim had been widely reported across the media. This shows just how utterly corrupt most of the media is nowadays.”

An Extreme(ly Nice) Summer

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2022

“I see the BBC/Met Office are up to their extreme weather scam again! (Timed to coincide with COP27 of course):”

The Conversation Wants To Stop Africa Developing Gas Reserves

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2022

“I don’t know why they call themselves The Conversation – as they never include articles which go against the climate agenda!”

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

I’m not a climate scientist but…

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

No, E&E News, Climate Change Has Not Caused Reno’s Rapid Warming

By Anthony Watts, Climate Realism, Nov 14, 2022

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Elon Musk: “Klaus Schwab Is LYING!!!”

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 13, 2022

“Elon Musk exposes the WEF:”

Political Video

[SEPP Comment: The WEF may be functionally illiterate!]

Questioning European Green

Green Fascism Looms Behind Veil Of Fake Benevolence…”Much More Radical Groups”

Posted By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 13, 2022

Greens: fascism looming behind a veil of fake benevolence

By Fred F. Mueller

Germany’s Compounding Energy Woes: Even Wind Power Industry Is “Sliding Into Crisis”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 15, 2022

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Canada’s Green New Deal: “To Hell With That” (Premier Moe speaks)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 16, 2022

Largest dam demolition plan in history clears last federal regulatory hurdle

By Julia Mueller, The Hill, Nov 17, 2022

“The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) voted Thursday to approve the plan, which would restore hundreds of miles of the Klamath River and clear the waterway for salmon.”

[SEPP Comment: FERC approving destroying about 169 MW of renewable power? How green is that?]

https://www.pacificorp.com/energy/hydro/klamath-river.html#:~:text=Project%20overview-,PacifiCorp’s%20169%2Dmegawatt%20(MW)%20Klamath%20Hydroelectric%20Project%20(FERC,needs%20of%20approximately%2070%2C000%20households.

Funding Issues

Biden announces $20B to move Indonesia away from coal

The U.S., Japan and 10 international partners pledge to aid Indonesia’s transition to a green economy

By Caitlin McFall, Fox News, Nov 15, 2022

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-announces-20b-move-indonesia-away-coal

EU and US banks fueling climate ‘hypocrisy’ in Africa

By Wester Van Gall, EU Observer, Nov 15, 2022

https://euobserver.com/green-economy/156424

“Between January 2019 and July 2022, 325 commercial banks channelled over €98bn to companies that are developing new fossil projects in Africa, most of it from North American, European, and Japanese banks.”

Litigation Issues

A True Progressive Top Court Takes On Climate Change: The Case Of Germany

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 14, 2022

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-11-14-how-a-true-progressive-top-court-handles-climate-change-the-case-of-germany

[SEPP Comment: In the 1896 Plessy v. Ferguson 7 to 1 decision, the US Supreme Court ruled that “Equal but separate accommodations for whites and blacks imposed by Louisiana do not violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.”]

https://www.oyez.org/cases/1850-1900/163us537

EPA and other Regulators on the March

Climategate 2.0: EPA’s New Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases Report

By Marlo Lewis, Jr. CEI, Nov 17, 2022

https://cei.org/blog/climategate-2-0-epas-new-social-cost-of-greenhouse-gases-report/

The EPA vs. the grid

By Alex Epstein, Energy Talking Points, Nov 16, 2022

http://mail.haapala.com/interface/root#/email

More on ‘Independent Commission’ SEC Coordinating on ‘Climate Risk Disclosure’ with Biden White House

By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Nov 10, 2022

[SEPP Comment: The “independent” SEC consulting with the White House on climate risk disclosure rules.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Africa: The Place where Claims Renewables are Cheaper Go to Die

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 16, 2022

Electricity access is critical to tackling global poverty, scientists say

By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 16, 2021

Link to paper: Using machine learning to assess the livelihood impact of electricity access

By Nathan Ratledge, et al. Nature, Nov 16, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05322-8

“In the context of an expansion of the electrical grid across Uganda, we show how a combination of satellite imagery and computer vision can be used to develop local-level livelihood measurements appropriate for inferring the causal impact of electricity access on livelihoods.”

The Autumn Statement

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 18, 2022

The Autumn Statement is toxic to Britain’s prospects and prosperity

Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Nov 18, 2022

Link to: Overview of the November 2022 Economic and fiscal outlook

By Staff, Office for Budget Responsibility, Nov 17, 2022

“The medium-term fiscal outlook has materially worsened since our March forecast due to a weaker economy, higher interest rates, and higher inflation…”

[SEPP Comment: The economy is performing poorly, so government should raise taxes?]

Energy Issues – Australia

Australia Demands the World Bank Pay for the Renewable Transition

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 15, 2022

Renewable South Australia Islanded, flying by the seat of their pants, afraid of a solar surge on a sunny day

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 16, 2022

Energy Issues — US

Is America at a Crossroads?

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 15, 2022

Thanksgiving gas prices projected to hit record high

By Alexandra Weaver and Nexstar Media Wire, the Hill, Nov 17, 2022

[SEPP Comment: Washington’s Anti-inflation Act in action.,]

Tap Oil Fields, Not Our Emergency Reserves, to Lower Energy Prices

By Patrice Douglas, Real Clear Energy, Nov 17, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/17/tap_oil_fields_not_our_emergency_oil_reserve_to_lower_energy_prices_865241.html

“In October, OPEC+ announced their intention to slash oil production by 2 million barrels of oil per day. This massive cut will have sharp consequences for Americans – pushing high energy costs even higher. President Biden is running out of ineffective solutions now that he has depleted the SPR to a dangerous low. Instead of utilizing our robust resources at home, President Biden is looking abroad, and even to hostile nations, for answers. In fact, recent reports have revealed that the White House is in talks with Venezuela.”

Jones Act Waivers Will Do Nothing to Help With Diesel Shortages or Lower Costs for Consumers

By Ku’uhaku Park, Real Clear Energy, Nov 15, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/15/jones_act_waivers_will_do_nothing_to_help_with_diesel_shortages_or_lower_costs_for_consumers_864798.html

Washington State Ban on Natural Gas Heating Is All Cost, No Benefit

By Todd Myers, The Daily Signal, Nov 10, 2022

https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/11/10/washington-state-ban-on-natural-gas-heating-is-all-cost-no-benefit/?utm_source=TDS_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CapitolBell&mkt_tok=ODI0LU1IVC0zMDQAAAGIK2qzfDb8mEIkanqm0aNjK-Ru9yWqjyM4EcGgliIs42sllgmNcpRNI3_9IW4RafLJdqMKaz3F0vPpJuVhXy0Zyh3qo0c3M3jflobKPfrXpxZCLXE

[SEPP Comment: California style democracy, give unaccountable bureaucrats authoritative powers.]

Return of King Coal?

Not Beyond Coal: Despite Latest IEA Report, China and India Are Building More Coal Plants

By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Nov 16, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/16/not_beyond_coal_despite_latest_iea_report_china_and_india_are_building_more_coal_plants_865205.html

Rich nations stick to coal phase-out as China builds new plants

By Susanna Twidale and Shadia Nasralla, Reuters, Nov 15, 2022

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/rich-nations-stick-coal-phase-out-plans-china-builds-new-projects-2022-11-15/

Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences

Freeport Restart Likely Delayed to January

By Michael Sutlan, Energy Intelligence Group. Nov 11, 2022

https://www.energyintel.com/00000184-688f-d8b5-ab9f-ef8f4ffd0001

“Freeport has not even been able to provide a restart plan that incorporates lessons learned from the failures that caused the Jun. 8 explosion.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Dissecting a Wind Project: An Introduction to Bad Economics (and political correctness)

By Bill Schneider, Master Resource, Nov 14, 2022

Reality Bites Joe Biden’s Gulf of Mexico Wind Dreams

By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Nov 15, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/15/reality_bites_joe_bidens_gulf_of_mexico_wind_dreams_864793.html

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

As Green Policies Cause Energy Prices To Explode, Deforestation In Europe Accelerates

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 18, 2022

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

Solar and Stand-Alone Development Incentives

By Anna Laird & Sara Sayles Real Clear Energy, Nov 14, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/14/leveraging_solar_and_stand-alone_development_incentives_in_the_federal_inflation_act_864788.html

“The IRA provides two main avenues for tax credits: Investment Tax Credits (ITCs) that reduce tax liability by a dollar amount calculated from a percentage of eligible investment costs; and Production Tax Credits (PTCs) measured in a fixed amount of dollars per kilowatt hour (kWh) of capacity developed. Under the IRA, project managers choose whether to access ITCs or PTCs. However, only ITCs are available to stand-alone storage projects.”

“Projects under one megawatt alternating current (MWac) receive a base ITC of 30% for 10 years, followed by a two-year credit phase-down from 30% to 0%. These projects have the ability to qualify for increases of 10-20% in additional credits for meeting domestic content minimums, siting in an energy community, or serving low-income communities.”

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles

EVs are a blast

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

Carbon Schemes

Energy secretary touts US announcements at UN climate conference

By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 17, 2022

The Department of Energy said Thursday, May 19, 2022, it will release $3.5 billion to groups developing direct air capture and other technologies that remove carbon dioxide, which when released into the atmosphere causes global warming.

Environmental Industry

Celebrating War as Climate Win Makes Red True Color of “Greens”

By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Energy, Nov 16, 2022

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2022/11/16/celebrating_war_as_climate_win_makes_red_true_color_of_greens_865303.html

FTX’s crypto ponzi scam was also a green scam

FTX worked hard on its green image, something its founder now admits was just a con

By Paul Homewood, Net Zero Watch, Nov 18, 2022

Other Scientific News

Scientifically Illiterate America

Citizens must have a basic knowledge of science to understand today’s policy issues.

By: Henry I. Miller, Hoover Institution, Nov 29, 2017

https://www.hoover.org/research/scientifically-illiterate-america

Other News that May Be of Interest

Baroness Brown’s Conflict of Interest

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 16, 2022

“Indeed, she seems to have had a long involvement with the WEF. In 2012 she wrote article for their website, which listed her as a member of the WEF Council even then.

“The CCC claims to be ‘independent’. If this is the case, her position with the CCC is not compatible with her membership of an avowedly political organisation which in particular campaigns for an extreme climate agenda.

“She should resign or be fired.”

[SEPP Comment: The CCC is UK’s Climate Change Committed.]

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

Claim: Climate Models Are Imprecise, Because Psychologists Were Not Consulted

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 16, 2022

Link to: Climate change and human behaviour

Editorial, Nature Human Behaviour Nov 16, 2022

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01490-9

Link to: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature

By G.S. Callendar, The Royal Meteorological Society, 1938

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/qj.49706427503

Proof that carbon taxes work

By John Robeson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 16, 2022

The Climate Crisis Fight Is the Moonshot of Our Time

The rise in destructive hurricanes, wildfires, draught and extreme heat have made the danger clear —action must be taken. Rolling Stone and over 30 media organizations call for wealthy countries to pay up and to quit their addiction to fossil fuels and increase the development of renewable energy sources

Editorial, Rolling Stone, Nov 14, 2022

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/climate-crisis-fight-is-now-the-moonshot-of-our-time-1234630793/

“The UN process may not be perfect. But it has provided nations with a target to save the planet, which must be pursued at Cop27 to stave off an existential risk to humanity.”

ARTICLES

1) Venezuela Joins the Great Climate Con

Maduro wants rich-world reparations for the environmental damage he caused.

By Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, Nov. 13, 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-joins-the-great-climate-con-nicolas-maduro-cop27-emissions-polluter-south-america-socialist-oil-11668365005

The veteran journalist on Latin America writes:

“Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro showed up at the annual United Nations climate summit in the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm El-Sheikh last week blaming capitalism for environmental degradation in the developing world. Naturally Mr. Maduro’s solution is for rich countries to hand over money to poor ones—like his.

“It’s tempting to dismiss the 27th Conference of the Parties, or COP27, as little more than an international convention of John Kerry-type gas bags letting off hot air. Not good for the world’s emissions score but otherwise meaningless.

“Nevertheless, those who work for a living in the developed world might want to pay attention. Mr. Maduro, who is an egregious polluter, is asking the U.N. to help him and his fellow socialists in Colombia and Brazil pick your pocket in the name of the environment. As he put it in comments to journalists on his arrival in Egypt, he wants the ‘powerful’ nations to commit to a plan ‘to finance the recuperation of the Amazon.’

“Mr. Maduro had already left the gathering of global grifters when President Biden—who wants the U.S. to buy Venezuelan oil—arrived on Friday. But video circulating on social media showed Mr. Kerry shaking hands and politely engaging, via a translator, with the Venezuelan earlier in the week.”

After mentioning that French president also looked foolish, she states:

“If human lives matter at all to the international community, Mr. Maduro ought to be barred from its meetings. Under his rule, dissidents are imprisoned in dungeons, student protesters are beaten and sometimes killed, and food supplies, controlled by the government, are used as a political weapon.

“A U.N. human-rights report released in July 2019 found that detainees were subjected to torture, including ‘asphyxiation, electric shock, broken bones, being hung by their limbs, and being forced to spend hours on their knees.’ They are frequently denied medical care, it said.

“In March 2020 the Justice Department charged Mr. Maduro and 14 other current and former high-ranking Venezuelan officials with having ‘partnered with the FARC to use cocaine as a weapon to ‘flood’ ‘ the U.S. The U.S. is offering a reward of up to $15 million for ‘information leading to the arrest and/or conviction of’ Mr. Maduro.

“Nevertheless, the Venezuelan gangster flitted around COP27 with an air of legitimacy. This was all the more surprising because Mr. Maduro’s criminality extends to the environment.”

After discussing the environmental damage being done by the government of Venezuela, Ms. O’Grady concludes:

“If the U.N. wants its environmental confabs to be taken seriously, it should disinvite clowns like Mr. Maduro.”

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